Wiki Consumer AV - Status Tracking Thread

[Daniel in SD]

Some of the things I read on Merc/BMW in Germany suggested the problem is German regulation. The regulation restricts L3 to 60 kmph. I guess they probably have the same issues I'm posting it here - how do the OEMs demonstrate L3 is safe for regulatory approval.

If I was a regulator, I'd ask for exactly what I wrote above - show test drives worth atleast 10x the distance to failure. Those are extremely time consuming for tiny fleets.

ps :

Is 2020 The Year For Eyes-Off Automated Driving?

When can we start driving a vehicle equipped with a Level 3 eye-off automation? Anyone not looking at the road now is being reckless. Automakers are moving this new capability to the market fast–but how fast?

www.forbes.com

For example, take Audi’s bold pronouncement that the 2018 Audi A8 would offer a Level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot. They did so, and although vehicles could be purchased with this feature in Germany, once on the road lack of clarity with German road regulations forced Audi to refrain from enabling it. Ouch.​

​

Audi gives up on Level 3 autonomous driver-assist system in A8

Audi says it no longer plans to offer Traffic Jam Pilot in the current generation of the A8.

www.motorauthority.com

10x the distance to what kind of failure? I bet there are minor collisions in traffic jams every 100k miles. I'm guessing that deaths are very rare (probably greater than the 1 per 100 million miles average). I suspect automakers didn't ask for a higher than 60kph limit.
Yeah it wouldn't surprise me if Mercedes system isn't released either.

 

[Bladerskb]

So, like FSD Beta ?

Sorry i messed up what i was trying to say.
1. Ultra Cruise is point to point like FSD Beta
2. The Zeekr Mobileye Supervision system (point to point) is called (or was) CoPilot and will be available through OTA in 2022
3. Another you missed is xpeng navigation guided pilot on-ramp to off-road.

But does it make needed change from one freeway to another ? Can't find any actual reviews or videos in the wild. Only thing I found was an early video that said the Drive worked only in some segments of the freeway - let alone on-ramp to off-ramp.

Yes

ps : BTW, when going from one freeway to another, is it considered off-ramping ?

Yes

Here is an independent 3rd party youtube video of Nio Autopilot (they call it Pilot).
Nio Navigate on Pilot (NOP) is like NOA but doesn't yet have all the functionality of NOA - but has more than just lane keeping. It can overtake and can get on ramp & offramp.

Nio navigate on pilot has all the features that navigate on autopilot has.
There's nothing navigate on autopilot can do that it can't do.

 

[EVNow]

10x the distance to what kind of failure? I bet there are minor collisions in traffic jams every 100k miles. I'm guessing that deaths are very rare (probably greater than the 1 per 100 million miles average). I suspect automakers didn't ask for a higher than 60kph limit.
Yeah it wouldn't surprise me if Mercedes system isn't released either.

Yes, there are minor accidents at low speeds in traffic jams. But Merc or Volvo don't want to pay for them. They also have PR issues to contend with.

That's why I was saying, purely from economics pov, if you assume 1k margin and $50k damages, you get to 1 million miles per crash as the break even.

Looking at another way - if the OEM insures their L3, they get better rates if they can show lower collision stats.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes, there are minor accidents at low speeds in traffic jams. But Merc or Volvo don't want to pay for them. They also have PR issues to contend with.

That's why I was saying, purely from economics pov, if you assume 1k margin and $50k damages, you get to 1 million miles per crash as the break even.

Looking at another way - if the OEM insures their L3, they get better rates if they can show lower collision stats.

I was thinking from a safety regulator standpoint. I'm thinking about collisions where it might not even be the system's fault. Like what happens if someone sideswipes the car? Is it more likely than a human driver to get pushed into someone changing a tire on the side of the road? Edge cases!
In terms of the rare fender bender that occurs despite the vehicle having a lower failure rate than a human it seems the OEMs would just write that off as a research expense. I'm sure they will be doing OTA updates.

 

[EVNow]

I was thinking from a safety regulator standpoint. I'm thinking about collisions where it might not even be the system's fault. Like what happens if someone sideswipes the car? Is it more likely than a human driver to get pushed into someone changing a tire on the side of the road? Edge cases!
In terms of the rare fender bender that occurs despite the vehicle having a lower failure rate than a human it seems the OEMs would just write that off as a research expense. I'm sure they will be doing OTA updates.

Well, however they "write it off" - the finance department has to be sure the Level 3 will still be profitable as a feature. Infact they need to know this to price the feature. Its the "cost" of offering the feature.

 

[EVNow]

Sorry i messed up what i was trying to say.
1. Ultra Cruise is point to point like FSD Beta

So, you input an address and UltraCruise will take you to the address - doing all the needed stuff like turns, lane changes etc ? Basically everything that FSD Beta is designed to do ?

2. The Zeekr Mobileye Supervision system (point to point) is called (or was) CoPilot and will be available through OTA in 2022

Is this the city one that Mobileye says is the "first consumer Level 4" ? They say it is 2024, not this year. Or is this the highway one that will work this year ?

CES: Mobileye, Zeekr Collaborate on Consumer AV

Together, Mobileye and Zeekr aim to deliver the world’s first consumer autonomous vehicle with L4 capabilities by 2024.

www.intel.com

With an anticipated debut in China in 2024, the new all-electric Zeekr vehicle is expected to be the world’s first consumer AV with L4 autonomous capability.​

3. Another you missed is xpeng navigation guided pilot on-ramp to off-road.

Will add.

So this Lexus would be similar to NOA ?

Teammate Advanced Drive Backgrounder - Lexus USA Newsroom

WHAT TO KNOW: Teammate advanced driver assistance technology is an SAE Level 2 system, based on Toyota’s Mobility Teammate Concept, that provides two functions: Advanced Drive and Advanced Park. It will be available on select 2022 Lexus LS 500h models […]

pressroom.lexus.com

Nio navigate on pilot has all the features that navigate on autopilot has.
There's nothing navigate on autopilot can do that it can't do.

I was going by the video I linked (which said NIO doesn't have all the features of NOA, but is dated). Its difficult to say anything from the below video - since it doesn't show any freeway inter-change.

 

[EVNow]

BTW, one more addition is Rivian. Here is a video I found.

 

[Daniel in SD]

So, you input an address and UltraCruise will take you to the address - doing all the needed stuff like turns, lane changes etc ? Basically everything that FSD Beta is designed to do ?

I think there is zero chance anyone releases something as capable as FSD Beta. GM has already said it will handle "95% of driving scenarios". I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't execute turns at intersections at all. It's going to be closer to Comma.ai's "make driving chill" philosophy vs. Tesla's "look at this crazy feature" philosophy.
Here's George Hotz explaining it and I fully agree

 

[EVNow]

I think there is zero chance anyone releases something as capable as FSD Beta. GM has already said it will handle "95% of driving scenarios". I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't execute turns at intersections at all. It's going to be closer to Comma.ai's "make driving chill" philosophy vs. Tesla's "look at this crazy feature" philosophy.
Here's George Hotz explaining it and I fully agree

But that won't be "point-to-point" ... right ?

BTW, updated OP with new info. Still a few questions left, esp. regarding "L3" systems in Germany - are they "live" or just "coming" ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

But that won't be "point-to-point" ... right ?

BTW, updated OP with new info. Still a few questions left, esp. regarding "L3" systems in Genrmany.

Correct. I don't think anyone is going offer that in the US.

 

[EVNow]

Correct. I don't think anyone is going offer that in the US.

You don't believe Bladerskb ?

1. Ultra Cruise is point to point like FSD Beta

Anyway, looks like FSD Beta like functionality to me ...

What is GM Ultra Cruise?

General Motors is raising the bar on autonomous driving with its new Ultra Cruise technology, due to arrive in 2023. Going beyond the automaker's current Super Cruise system, Ultra Cruise will enable hands-free driving in up to 95% of driving scenarios, including on suburban and city streets.

www.jdpower.com

Ultra Cruise activates with the touch of a button. Going beyond the current Super Cruise system, Ultra Cruise builds a full 360-degree three-dimensional view of the vehicle's surroundings by combining data from a suite of cameras, sensors, radar, and lidar. While navigating this virtual environment and providing user information through a dedicated display screen directly in front of the driver, the Ultra Cruise system offers the following functionalities:​

• Reacts to permanent traffic control devices
• Follows internal navigation route
• Maintains headway; follows speed limits
• Supports automatic and on-demand lane change
• Supports left and right-hand turns
• Supports close object avoidance
• Supports parking in residential driveways

ps : Essentially, along with Mobileye based Zeekr, we might have 3 companies supporting consumer AVs with city driving within the next couple of years.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You don't believe Bladerskb ?



Anyway, looks like FSD Beta like functionality to me ...

What is GM Ultra Cruise?

General Motors is raising the bar on autonomous driving with its new Ultra Cruise technology, due to arrive in 2023. Going beyond the automaker's current Super Cruise system, Ultra Cruise will enable hands-free driving in up to 95% of driving scenarios, including on suburban and city streets.

www.jdpower.com

Ultra Cruise activates with the touch of a button. Going beyond the current Super Cruise system, Ultra Cruise builds a full 360-degree three-dimensional view of the vehicle's surroundings by combining data from a suite of cameras, sensors, radar, and lidar. While navigating this virtual environment and providing user information through a dedicated display screen directly in front of the driver, the Ultra Cruise system offers the following functionalities:​

• Reacts to permanent traffic control devices
• Follows internal navigation route
• Maintains headway; follows speed limits
• Supports automatic and on-demand lane change
• Supports left and right-hand turns
• Supports close object avoidance
• Supports parking in residential driveways

ps : Essentially, along with Mobileye Zeekr, we might have 3 companies supporting consumer AVs in a couple of years.

Haha. I guess I should have read the rest of the press release. I'm still skeptical! As far as I know GM has never demoed it? What is the 5% it doesn't support?

Site Maintenance

It's not a matter of believing bladerskb. I'm just making a different prediction.

 

[EVNow]

Haha. I guess I should have read the rest of the press release. I'm still skeptical! As far as I know GM has never demoed it? What is the 5% it doesn't support?

Site Maintenance

It's not a matter of believing bladerskb. I'm just making a different prediction.

I wonder whether they support unmarked roads. I think this whole 95% is some kind of marketing stuff that execs forced them to add. Difficult to see engineers adding something like that (unless they can actually measure).

I'm really interested in seeing how GM would actually roll this out and how well it works all over the US. I mean - before Tesla rolled out FSD Beta, we knew how it works in the city in terms of lane keeping etc since so many features rolled out with EAP - but GM is rolling everything out in one go !

I've been disappointed by GM with their EV pronouncements before, will have to see how this one goes.

 

[Bladerskb]

So, you input an address and UltraCruise will take you to the address - doing all the needed stuff like turns, lane changes etc ? Basically everything that FSD Beta is designed to do ?

As you now know, yes.

Is this the city one that Mobileye says is the "first consumer Level 4" ? They say it is 2024, not this year. Or is this the highway one that will work this year ?

CES: Mobileye, Zeekr Collaborate on Consumer AV

Together, Mobileye and Zeekr aim to deliver the world’s first consumer autonomous vehicle with L4 capabilities by 2024.

www.intel.com

With an anticipated debut in China in 2024, the new all-electric Zeekr vehicle is expected to be the world’s first consumer AV with L4 autonomous capability.​

Will add.

They are two separate system, one available today waiting on and OTA update, the other slated for a future Zeekr model in 2024.

L2 Mobileye Supervision (Zeekr branded it as Copilot)
Has 11 cameras, 2x Eye5 and is sold as three separate packages on Zeekr 001:

- Active Safety Features (standard)
- On ramp to Off ramp highway driving ($2500)
- Door to Door Urban Driving ($5,000)

L4 Mobileye Drive (Consumer AV) slated to show up on a future Zeekr model in 2024. It Has 12 cameras, 6x 4D imaging radars, 1x forward Lidar, 6x EyeQ5

It will be L4 and drive in China cities.

So this Lexus would be similar to NOA ?

Teammate Advanced Drive Backgrounder - Lexus USA Newsroom

WHAT TO KNOW: Teammate advanced driver assistance technology is an SAE Level 2 system, based on Toyota’s Mobility Teammate Concept, that provides two functions: Advanced Drive and Advanced Park. It will be available on select 2022 Lexus LS 500h models […]

pressroom.lexus.com

Yes.

I was going by the video I linked (which said NIO doesn't have all the features of NOA, but is dated). Its difficult to say anything from the below video - since it doesn't show any freeway inter-change.

There are more videos. Will find one that has it and post it.

 

[EVNow]

L2 Mobileye Supervision (Zeekr branded it as Copilot)
Has 11 cameras, 2x Eye5 and is sold as three separate packages on Zeekr 001:

- Active Safety Features (standard)
- On ramp to Off ramp highway driving ($2500)
- Door to Door Urban Driving ($5,000)

L4 Mobileye Drive (Consumer AV) slated to show up on a future Zeekr model in 2024. It Has 12 cameras, 6x 4D imaging radars, 1x forward Lidar, 6x EyeQ5

It will be L4 and drive in China cities.

Where did you see (Supervision /CoPilot) will have door-to-door capability this year ? The video only says "eventually". That doesn't sound like this year.

Searching for Zeekr and Supervison, all I see are statements like this ... While Zeekr 001 launched, there is no word about door-to-door capability launching anytime soon.

As part of the long-term agreement, Mobileye will work with Zeekr to create advanced ADAS systems with increasingly sophisticated capabilities for a variety of Zeekr models. The collaboration will begin with the launch of Zeekr vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021 featuring Mobileye SuperVision, a full-stack ADAS solution powered by two EyeQ5 system-on-chip (SoC) devices processing data from 11 cameras.​

​

ps :

Here is an interesting report of ADAS / AV in China. Only highlights (I guess would have to buy the full report). Lots of models, Highway L3 etc are mentioned. Even mention of "L3 ADAS"

China Independent OEMs' ADAS and Autonomous Driving Market Report 2021: Mass Production of L4 Autonomous Vehicles in China May Concentrate in 2025

Dublin, Jan. 28, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Chinese Independent OEMs' ADAS and Autonomous Driving Report, 2021" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. Chinese brands' ADAS research: Lynk & Co, BYD, Haval and Geely are in the first echelon of L2 In the first eight months...

finance.yahoo.com

If there are production vehicles with all these capabilities, there must be videos of them. We just don't know how to find them ...

One example is ARCFOX a-S HI.​

​

In April 2021, ARCFOX a-S HI (Huawei Inside) co-built by BAIC ARCFOX and Huawei made a debut at the Auto Shanghai. The model carries Huawei's advanced ADS, 3 96-channel LiDARs, 6 radars, 12 cameras, 13 ultrasonic radars, and Huawei chips with computing power of 400TOPS, delivering L3 autonomy and offering capabilities of highway driving assistance, urban advanced driving assistance and valet parking.​

 

[Khashoggi]

Comma.ai sells an add-on lane keeping (soon to be on-ramp to off-ramp) for highways called the Comma. It is compatible with many makes and models of cars (but not all) and interfaces via the cars OBD port and mounts on the windshield in a similar location to a dash cam..

It would be good to include it-

Lane Keeping
Driver monitoring via hands-on and camera
ODD - all roads even laneless
Point to point
GEO USA and I believe entire World
Speed restriction is unknown, but it is al least 90mph.
Available now

It works VERY well, although it is constrained by some make-model vehicle OEM restrictions like steering torque limits and minimum engagement speed.

 

[EVNow]

Comma.ai sells an add-on lane keeping (soon to be on-ramp to off-ramp) for highways called the Comma. It is compatible with many makes and models of cars (but not all) and interfaces via the cars OBD port and mounts on the windshield in a similar location to a dash cam..

It is probably the only after-market system that allows this. I'll include it.

How do they plan to change lanes with a single camera ? Are they planning to add multiple cameras ?

 

[EVNow]

This is a cautionary tale of "Level 3".

"Honda produced a limited run of only 100 vehicles with Level 3 at its Sayama assembly plant, which ended vehicle production on Dec. 27 as part of Honda's global restructuring. The special-edition Legend went on sale March 5, and costs ¥11 million ($96,000), a ¥3 million ($26,000) premium over the car's regular version. By last October, Honda had sold only about 80 of them."

https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/siwk0i

Not just that - just see this "demo" video. The car nearly crashes into a truck that is changing the lane - saved only because the driver took over. Just because something is "Level 3" doesn't mean it is any better - unless they have tested for millions of miles and made sure statistically it IS better. Since regulations don't need any kind of statistical proof - anyone can produce a "Level 3" vehicle that is not tested properly.

The UN regulation literally calls for "5 minutes of testing" a bunch of features. Not proving the failure rate is low after running for millions of miles in real world conditions.

 

[Daniel in SD]

This is a cautionary tale of "Level 3".

https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/siwk0i

Not just that - just see this "demo" video. The car nearly crashes into a truck changing lane. Just because something is "Level 3" doesn't mean it is any better - unless they have testing for millions of miles and made sure statistically it IS better. Since regulations don't need any kind of statistical proof - anyone can produce a "Level 3" vehicle that is not tested properly.

The UN regulation literally calls for "5 minutes of testing" a bunch of features. Not proving the failure rate is low after running for millions of miles in real world conditions.

Wow, that was horrible. I don't think that system will be Level 3 for very long!
Looks like Honda is trying to save money by having people pay $26k to test their system.

 

[EVNow]

Wow, that was horrible. I don't think that system will be Level 3 for very long!
Looks like Honda is trying to save money by having people pay $26k to test their system.

Thats not the problem - the problem is they claim the driver doesn't need to pay attention. Someone can easily get killed because of that statement ...

Personally I'd not trust a "level 3" system to actually be safer than a "level 2" system, unless they can actually statistically prove their claim. Esp., if the number of cars sold is small, OEM can get away with taking on the liability risk.

ps : I really wonder how GM is testing their UltraCruise. Surely people would have seen their test cars running around in various parts of the country ? Or do they think they can just test in some controlled environment and sell it as a non-beta (i.e. "trustable" system )? Ofcourse it will only be available in new cars that will get sold in small volume ... still, could be > 10k in the first year.