Gigafactory 3 developments

[j0hn]

Hi !

Saw some discussion about the upcoming GF 3 in shanghai in the market action thread. Did some additional digging but i do not wan't to clog that thread with this info.

Also i think it would be nice to have a single thread so it is easier to see what the latest developments are without wading through dozens of pages


So i uncovered this article with my googlefu , it is in chinese but using translate i exacted this information :

• pre announcement on opening biddings on plot Q01-05 of the 04PD-0303 unit of Lingang Heavy Equipment Industrial Zone happend on sept 26
• plot requirements are for manufacture of new energy vehicles, and the investment requirements are relatively high , seems tailored to Tesla
• plot size is 860 thousand square meters.
• starting bid must be minimum of 973 million yuan , incremental bids +5M and currently only one bidding applicant
• information above matches the bloomberg report earlier this week.
• actual opening of bids starts oct 17
• if at 11:30 on October 17, 2018, only one bidding applicant has submitted a bidding guarantee, and the bidding applicant has submitted a bidding application, the bidding application for the land may be closed at this time

So if there are no other bidders and Tesla has its ducks in a row they could become the owners of this land effectively in 5 days on the 17th at 11:30 local time.

There is also this information mentioned about the plot location :

The location of the plot is reserved for the east to the planning of the East China Sea Second Bridge control line green belt, south to the People's Pond green belt, west to the South Fengjie River green belt, north to the Lao Litang River green belt; the transfer area is 864885 square meters; access The industrial type is manufactured by the new energy vehicle industry.

sofar no luck in figuring out the location , maybe a native chinese reader and google can figure that out

 

[printf42]

The location doesn't make much sense for general public that does not have planning maps.

But the picture in one of the document here:
上海市规划和国土资源管理局

matches this plot:

which is here:

One thing we can confirm is:
This is not in the "free trade zone", so there will not be tariff for cars produced here.

 

[j0hn]

land secured !

Tesla buys new plot for its first China factory

 

[Ulmo]

The location doesn't make much sense for general public that does not have planning maps.

But the picture in one of the document here:
上海市规划和国土资源管理局
View attachment 343398
matches this plot:
View attachment 343399
which is here:
View attachment 343400
One thing we can confirm is:
This is not in the "free trade zone", so there will not be tariff for cars produced here.

That's approximately here: 30°52'17.0"N 121°46'00.0"E

Google Maps

 

[electracity]

What is the elevation of that plot? How many feet of sea level rise will inundate a new factory?

I have to wonder if China "cooperating" with Tesla is really just slowrolling Tesla. Sure they can build duty free cars in China. Just not too many too soon to gain significant market share in the developing EV market.

 

[neroden]

I certainly hope the entire factory will be elevated, and typhoon-proofed.

 

[oneday]

First floor parking structure?

Luckily China is pretty good with steel and cement.

Let’s just hope they have a good engineering and design collaboration.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I certainly hope the entire factory will be elevated, and typhoon-proofed.

If they use the underside for parking, only employee vehicles and no more than a day or two's worth of production are in danger (ideally no production, but better to lose a couple days of production versus the entire facility AND the production).

 

[mongo]

Drive under semi unloading?
Trailers (or parts) can get elevated directly to correct spot on the line.
Cobo Hall in Detroit is partly elevated over street level.

 

[neroden]

Reserving the ground floor for logistics and parking and putting all the expensive equipment upstairs is a brilliant idea -- I'd say someone should suggest it to someone at Tesla, but it's totally impossible to get through to them.

 

[Singer3000]

For how many years have millions of cars been made per year on the Chinese coast and how many times has a typhoon or tsunami wrecked a Chinese car production facility? On the list of things to worry about with this investment, tyhpoon and tsunami damage don’t even rank.

I’m far more interested to see how much offshore capital Tesla will have to put in (i.e. on top of cash already in country and the local bank loans) and what dividend flows from Tesla Shanghai management are assuming.

In recent years, sudden blocks to currency convertibility have been real, observable events and that’s without there having been any notable event to trigger full on capital flight.

Someone (maybe on the Big Thread) mentioned expropriation risk; for now this is surely tail risk also, given Tesla’s mission statement closely aligns with Communist Party policy. But the clue’s in the name. Some observers have seen recent bail-out activity in China as a backdoor industrial nationalisation strategy. As in, state banks pull funding lines, forcing a liquidity event on the borrower (most Chinese privately owned enterprises have current ratios worse than 1x, using working capital type debt to fund plant). This then necessitates a full or partial nationalisation of the borrower/its key assets, in the name of “social and economic stability”.

Tesla Shanghai is of course immune to this type of nationalisation but if your investment timeframe is a decade (which it really should be for this stock), then expropriation risk becomes harder to assess, even for FDI of this type.

Still, China is the biggest car market in the world and the largest producer of renewable energy. So a great investment by Tesla, so long as they have their eyes open.

 

[Ulmo]

That's approximately here: 30°52'17.0"N 121°46'00.0"E

Google Maps

The administrator of the following site has now added Gigafactory 3 to their comparison page, stating that it is "Unfortunately limited to one image per month for now", which to my observation apparently applies to the satellite images from China; note that dates are in DD-MM-YYYY format: Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations. I think the "once per month" limitation still offers us the possibility to use that link for long term comparisons; only the short term actions would not be shown there quickly except by chance.

That site already has a GF3 drone flyover listed, which is new to me: View drone video's of Tesla's Gigafactory 3 footage is from 19-10-2018. That links to this on YouTube:

 

[jeewee3000]

For those that didn't see the video @Ulmo posted, the cameraman talks to different bystanders/workers to aks them about the upcoming Tesla factory.

Good progress has already been made regarding landscaping, just excellent news.

 

[Vitold]

It is little sad that they are building on agricultural land.

 

[mongo]

It is little sad that they are building on agricultural land.

I understand your feeling, but unless land was previously developed (with ruined soil), most things are build on farmable land.
(if this is the same spot as in August) Chinese Media Visit Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory Site | CleanTechnica
The land in that area is reported artificially reclaimed/ fortified, not sure if the actual site was originally farmable or under water.
Agricultural use would have always been planned to be a temporary use of the land until an industrial tenet acquired it. Alternative being a vacant lot overgrown with weeds. So at least it was being used in the interim.

 

[electracity]

Anyone know the semi-skilled labor rate in Shanghai? I'm guessing its about 1/3 the cost of building cars in Cal.

Tesla may have enough demand alone to export 250K from China to the rest of Asia and Australia. Obviously supplying the world with cars from Cali is not a sustainable plan.

 

[j0hn]

model 3 and model y to be produced at GF3 according to reuters

 

[Vitold]

From q3 call I deduce that Tesla will setup GA3 type of assembly line in China first, of course w/o actual tent.

Maybe Tesla would even move existing battery pack assembly line from GF1 (once Grohmann’s lines are up) to China if they are short on cash.

Given how fast GA3 was setup and how cheap it is - we maybe looking at Model 3 assembled there starting 2H19.

 

[electracity]

From q3 call I deduce that Tesla will setup GA3 type of assembly line in China first, of course w/o actual tent.

Maybe Tesla would even move existing battery pack assembly line from GF1 (once Grohmann’s lines are up) to China if they are short on cash.

Given how fast GA3 was setup and how cheap it is - we maybe looking at Model 3 assembled there starting 2H19.

I think more likely it will first be final assembly like Tilburg. This will allow Tesla to work with Chinese manufacturing management as early as possible. Since Musk will need to fire a couple of Shanghai plant managers before the plant stabilizes this approach should work well.

 

[j0hn]

From q3 call I deduce that Tesla will setup GA3 type of assembly line in China first, of course w/o actual tent.

Maybe Tesla would even move existing battery pack assembly line from GF1 (once Grohmann’s lines are up) to China if they are short on cash.

Given how fast GA3 was setup and how cheap it is - we maybe looking at Model 3 assembled there starting 2H19.

biggest problem i see is the aquisition of the body panel stamping press. unless it is already being build i think it is going to take a bit for such specialised equiptment to be build and shipped ?