Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

what is this *************** thinking? That his shares will be worth MORE if Elon quits?

Elon will not quit, I am 100% confident of this.

However he will make Tesla into a car/energy company only and AI stops at FSD and robotics. Personal assistance, AGI, and other online based AI progress will be going to X AI.

I may not be Musk and know exactly what he is thinking, but he is no quitter despite the amount of poop thrown his way by people.

 

[jeewee3000]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that enough shares will be counted in support of this measure to pass.

I've been trying to dig up as much info on this as I can.

PROs:
- the board ain't stupid and has a live pulse on the votes. They have some room to steer/talk to the largest holders.
- Gary Black tweeted he voted "for" Elon's comp package and states most institutional holders he talks to voted "for".
He recently confirmed he sees the Elon comp package as likely passing. (EDIT: deleted fake Elon post. My bad I didn't check the handle. Thanks @Singuy )
- Leo has less than 1% of shares (around 0.85% I think) so he's not THAT important.

CONs:
- the fact that the board is shouting from the rooftops that all must vote could be interpreted as worrying since they might see they won't make it otherwise;
- some of the biggest holders (Vanguard) voted NO in 2018 so will likely vote NO again.
- even retail investors are divided if we can believe the polls (for example the TMC poll (with less than 100 votes, so grain of salt) only has 36% FOR and 27% against, rest have no shares).
- Gary doesn't know j*ck and most likely talks to small fish.
- the fact that Elon asks why Gary is confident, makes me not confident since it seems Elon is not confident.

 

[Singuy]

I've been trying to dig up as much info on this as we can.

PROs:
- the board ain't stupid and has a live pulse on the votes. They have some room to steer/talk to the largest holders.
- Gary Black tweeted he voted "for" Elon's comp package and states most institutional holders he talks to voted "for".
He recently confirmed he sees the Elon comp package as likely passing. And tweeted to Elon about it.
View attachment 1047765
- Leo has less than 1% of shares (around 0.85% I think) so he's not THAT important.

CONs:
- the fact that the board is shouting from the rooftops that all must vote could be interpreted as worrying since they might see they won't make it otherwise;
- some of the biggest holders (Vanguard) voted NO in 2018 so will likely vote NO again.
- even retail investors are divided if we can believe the polls (for example the TMC poll (with less than 100 votes, so grain of salt) only has 36% FOR and 27% against, rest have no shares).
- Gary doesn't know j*ck and most likely talks to small fish.
- the fact that Elon asks why Gary is confident, makes me not confident since it seems Elon is not confident.

Elon Musk didn't ask Gary anything. Check the X handle.

 

[SO16]

Controversial post, so feel free to downvote.

To be perfectly clear, I find Leo's behaviour completely wrong and pathetic, worth a spoiled 5 year old kid.

However, I think he is a smart guy (unlike Gerber...) and has been very vocal for months that the whole tesla management is not looking after and listening to shareholders.
He's now taking advantage of this re-vote to make his point... just in a very dumb and deplorable way.
I have the feeling that more transparency from the top to is all he wants, and frankly he may have a point there.

On the other hand, if there's one thing the board should do in general, is show they are doing some work for shareholders and earn some likability. Ultimately, we hear about them almost only when they are selling shares.

I know this will not go down well with many, but I would welcome anyone from the board to reach out and have a quiet chat with Leo.
I can see both sides coming out from that with a smile, and this might be a good move for everyone.

I wouldn’t trust Leo to make rational decisions. He’s very sketch, IMO.

I find that people who are super BULLS, can easily flip and go super negative. One extreme to the other. Not good.

My post below is from Jan 2023 and the stock did go back up to almost 300 again as well as the Model Y being the top selling vehicle on the planet and most cars ever sold.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Buffett owns a lot of car dealerships too. There's a reason he hasn't invested in Tesla. They're success degrades a lot of his businesses: Oil, insurance, car dealerships, utilities, even trains (autonomous Semis). Literally the opposite of Tesla. This NOT a reason he hasn’t invested in Tesla...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Singuy]

Somehow I have a feeling that Musk doesn't think he will win, hence he already positioned himself for XAi to take over AI progress and already telegraph his intentions under what condition for Tesla to continue progress. This reminds me of his Tesla share sale to pay taxes. He already know the result of then poll and wanted to sell to pay his 2012 compensation package anyways.

 

[dl003]

what is this *************** thinking? That his shares will be worth MORE if Elon quits?

The better question to ask is what should Elon think about this. He went from the people's champion, the guy who everyone rallied behind, to having to sweat over this. KoGuan believed in Tesla so much that he bought over 1% of the company. And now he's voting no. He's not a 9 share holder. He's not here to sabotage. There're 2 explanations for this:

1. Suddenly a big portion of shareholders became assholes overnight
2. Their perception of Elon has changed due to his actions

Guess which one is more likely.

The problem solver in Elon should look at this very carefully and figure out what went wrong and how to rectify this mess, instead of asking "wtf is everyone thinking?"

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon Musk didn't ask Gary anything. Check the X handle.

Thanks. Edited the post.

 

[Knightshade]

I wouldn’t trust Leo to make rational decisions. He’s very sketch, IMO.

FWIW from all I've read from him this seems accurate.... and I think he's making an insane decision voting no here.... OTOH I found it hilarious that James Stephenson's reply to Leos post was basically WELL IF YOU ARE SO SMART WHY DON'T YOU GO TRY STARTING A COMPANY.... clearly having no idea how Leo got the $ to buy 27 million shares in the first place.

 

[spacerfc]

The better question to ask is what should Elon think about this. He went from the people's champion, the guy who everyone rallied behind

He's never the guy who everyone rallied behind, established interests (big oil, legacy auto, just to name two examples) are against him from the start, and there used to be tons of TSLAQs. The 2020 rally wiped out a lot of Qs, but now stock price is lower they're coming back and this time they infected some stockholders, that is all.

 

[30seconds]

In case people want to know how this works from the inside.

Basically the company hires a proxy solicitor who is there to try to get shareholders to vote and then record said votes. The company will already know who the largest shareholders are based on public filings and can typically get their votes within a few days of the voting period opening.

The proxy agent will give the company a daily update of the votes for, against and abstentions. Shareholders are not required to vote on all measures so sometimes you can get a mix of yes/nos and abstentions from a single shareholder.

Some large funds are required to follow the voting recommendations from ISS and/or Glass Lewis.

Overall the company should have a pretty good idea of the results by the end of next week, even if the results aren't reported until the annual meeting on June 13th.

 

[dl003]

He's never the guy who everyone rallied behind, established interests (big oil, legacy auto, just to name two examples) are against him from the start, and there used to be tons of TSLAQs. The 2020 rally wiped out a lot of Qs, but now stock price is lower they're coming back and this time they infected some stockholders, that is all.

By "everyone", I mean his shareholders. How did the vote pass with overwhelming support in 2018? Why are they struggling now? Oil and gas didn't suddenly hate him more.

If you followed KoGuan vs Elon's exchanges in December of 2022, you should know that exchange captured the essence of sentiment changes among his supporters. He/they begged him to stop / pause but was/were ignored, even unfollowed.

I'm not someone who cares what people on X think about Elon, but we're talking about his shareholders here. People who have a vested interest in the company. He should take this very seriously.

If he quits, he'll burn so many bridges behind him that I seriously doubt his other companies can survive.

 

[spacerfc]

By "everyone", I mean his shareholders. How did the vote pass with overwhelming support in 2018? Why are they struggling now? Oil and gas didn't suddenly hate him more.

There's no indication that they're struggling now.

The shareholders voted in 2018 are not the same shareholders today.

Why wouldn't establishment hate him more? Tesla today is a lot bigger and it's profitable, thus is a lot more a threat than the Tesla in 2018. And that doesn't even take into account the threat his other companies pose to established interests (and some of his enemies are foreign powers who are well versed in psyops, for example Russia)

 

[Todd Burch]

Controversial post, so feel free to downvote.

To be perfectly clear, I find Leo's behaviour completely wrong and pathetic, worth a spoiled 5 year old kid.

However, I think he is a smart guy (unlike Gerber...) and has been very vocal for months that the whole tesla management is not looking after and listening to shareholders.
He's now taking advantage of this re-vote to make his point... just in a very dumb and deplorable way.
I have the feeling that more transparency from the top to is all he wants, and frankly he may have a point there.

On the other hand, if there's one thing the board should do in general, is show they are doing some work for shareholders and earn some likability. Ultimately, we hear about them almost only when they are selling shares.

I know this will not go down well with many, but I would welcome anyone from the board to reach out and have a quiet chat with Leo.
I can see both sides coming out from that with a smile, and this might be a good move for everyone.

I don't think you're wrong. And I suspect that's exactly Leo's point for posting his vote publicly.

I think he's doing this so that he can talk to someone on the board and make his point. I think ultimately once that happens he'll switch his vote back.

 

[dl003]

There's no indication that they're struggling now.

Guess one of us can read between the lines.

 

[2daMoon]

Earlier I mentioned how short activity is up and wanted to follow up with some numbers from @Papafox thread.
(my emphasis)

View attachment 1047653
Percent of selling tagged to shorts was 65% on Wednesday, thus extending the 60% or above streak to an astounding 13 days in a row. Normally, if the SEC was doing its job the market makers wouldn't dare to be so flagrant about their TSLA manipulations, but the SEC would rather turn a blind eye than help an Elon Musk company.

Low volume makes it easy for them to do this, but, consider the logic...

Usually, shorts will sell more when a stock is nearer to their highs and they expect a dip to profit from.

These shorts are selling hugely at a long-running low period for the SP where it is unlikely to justify so large of a bet on there being a significant negative movement of the SP. Where is the logic in this?

Are there other reasons than profit to encourage a lot of money to be bet on shorting TSLA at this time?

Food for thought.

 

[Singuy]

By "everyone", I mean his shareholders. How did the vote pass with overwhelming support in 2018? Why are they struggling now? Oil and gas didn't suddenly hate him more.

If you followed KoGuan vs Elon's exchanges in December of 2022, you should know that exchange captured the essence of sentiment changes among his supporters. He/they begged him to stop / take it easy but was/were ignored, even unfollowed.

And I'm not someone who cares people on X thinks about Elon or the left think about Elon. We're talking about his shareholders. People who have a vested interest in the company. He should take this very seriously.

If he quits, he'll burn so many bridges behind him that I seriously doubt his other companies can survive.

Musk reads people better than you know. This is why he is predicting the vote will not pass today because it's a hindsight vote that cost the company a substantial amounts of money. Shareholders were going to agree to anything put out by the board in 2018 because the company was going under. Add to the fact that the compensation plan would cost the company literally NOTHING UNLESS share price and EBITDA triples or quadruples was a no brainer vote.

 

[rallykeeper]

In case people want to know how this works from the inside.

Basically the company hires a proxy solicitor who is there to try to get shareholders to vote and then record said votes. The company will already know who the largest shareholders are based on public filings and can typically get their votes within a few days of the voting period opening.

The proxy agent will give the company a daily update of the votes for, against and abstentions. Shareholders are not required to vote on all measures so sometimes you can get a mix of yes/nos and abstentions from a single shareholder.

Some large funds are required to follow the voting recommendations from ISS and/or Glass Lewis.

Overall the company should have a pretty good idea of the results by the end of next week, even if the results aren't reported until the annual meeting on June 13th.

I think the open question is what and when the voting recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis will be. Seems like those may not be known until late this month.

 

[jeewee3000]

If he quits, he'll burn so many bridges behind him that I seriously doubt his other companies can survive.

Except SpaceX. That company is so far ahead of its competition they cannot lose.

 

[dl003]

Musk reads people better than you know. This is why he is predicting the vote will not pass today because it's a hindsight vote that cost the company a substantial amounts of money. Shareholders were going to agree to anything put out by the board in 2018 because the company was going under. Add to the fact that the compensation plan would cost the company literally NOTHING UNLESS share price and EBITDA triples or quadruples was a no brainer vote.

how is it going to cost the company money? It's a vote to leave everything as is.

The question is not whether Elon can read people well. Smart as he is, I'd be very surprised if he sucked at reading people. The question is whether he'll let his ego get the better of him.

 

[Singuy]

how is it going to cost the company money? It's a vote to leave everything in its place.

The question is not whether Elon can read people well. Smart as he is, I'd be very surprised if he sucked at reading people. The question is whether he'll let his ego get the better of him.

A failed vote would transfer all that compensation owed to Musk back to the company.

It's not really difficult to read his chess move here.

1. He wants to do his own XAI thing controlled by him
2. Investors feel mislead that he made it seem like Tesla was going to be this AI company
3. He knew the result of the case way before we did, so he put out the statement about the 25% of Tesla or not comfortable with AI
4. He thinks the vote will fail because of his own actions/plus people are not willing to give him a compensation if they don't need to.
5. Now it's the shareholders fault for not granting him 25%, so he moves AI away from Tesla.

But now the insect bites back lol...cause...we bite..yeah whatever. Elon rolls his eyes and it's exactly what he predicted...