Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

look to Finland, Experience Life on the Verge - Verge Motorcycles

Looks like they finally started delivering to customers after years and years of delays

If they ramp up and live up to the hype it’s the most compelling option range and charge time wise, although that is valid only for the most expensive model

 

[FastEddieB]

Harley Davidson markets an EV motorcycle.

Electric Motorcycles & Bikes

Ride into the future with a Harley-Davidson electric motorcycle or bike. These e-bikes and e-motorcycles of tomorrow are fully electric-powered.

www.harley-davidson.com

I hear it’s been a sales disaster.

 

[dhrivnak]

Looks like they finally started delivering to customers after years and years of delays

Kind of like the CyberTruck and the new Roadster, or solar roof…. Remember prototypes are easy it is scaling that is hard.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Harley Davidson markets an EV motorcycle.

Electric Motorcycles & Bikes

Ride into the future with a Harley-Davidson electric motorcycle or bike. These e-bikes and e-motorcycles of tomorrow are fully electric-powered.

www.harley-davidson.com

I hear it’s been a sales disaster.

They male Electric motorcycles near my hometown too: Energica Motor Company – The italian electric motorcycle manufacturer

 

[2daMoon]

Harley Davidson markets an EV motorcycle.

I hear it’s been a sales disaster.

How many times has it been said that Tesla is a sales disaster?

I think Harley is a lot like Ford in the way they have approached this. They have a large base of dedicated users that aren't quite ready to grasp the electric future. Still, they have placed a product out there and established the R&D within each of their companies to improve the designs and be a part of the coming transition.

At least they have made inroads based upon this electric inevitability they clearly see looming on the horizon. These companies will be in a better position to expand into that future faster than will their peers who didn't follow suit early on and will struggle to bridge the gap because of their delay.

So, they are not a reflection of Tesla at this point, but neither are they like a Toyota or Honda who are grappling with the future by being indecisive and holding onto the past.

 

[2daMoon]

Tom Nash remarks on interviews with money managers which illustrate how, on several fronts, the second half of this year could be very positive. He shares an interesting point of view from these pros that offers a welcome balance to weigh in against the doomers and the gloomers.

 

[scaesare]

The narrative that Elon cares about the earth and humanity and doesn't care about money was shattered long ago. Only the uberbulls still carry the false narrative that Elon is a selfless billionaire fighting for the good of humanity. There is no bigger ego out there today.

How was it shattered?

 

[scaesare]

I'm probably the biggest Elon fan here but FSD AND Optimus are a done deal. Optimus have an amazing team with probably 50 leaders better than most of us have ever worked with. Elon is irreplaceable but when you have a $375T market cap target you don't need to worry quite so much. I can live with $200T.

The team have Elon's algorithm and crucially believe in it. They will just make a few mistakes along the way. No more than 20% will leave in the unlikely event of Elon going. This 20% are replaceable.

T or B?

 

[lascavarian]

At least they have made inroads based upon this electric inevitability they clearly see looming on the horizon.

My opinion here, HD lives in the past. They had the Buell performance brand but it was anathema to their HD life style brand of noise and chrome. Rather than just sell the brand, they killed it.

Their toe tip into EVs is about keeping their hold on police bikes. EVs are compelling to police departments.

Again just my opinion.

 

[winfield100]

@dbeiler
only if you have =>NO<= dependents and sign/carry an organ donation waiver
0-60 mph (0 - 100kph) in 0.8 seconds over 15 years ago. too damn fast

KillaCycle Specs. and the KillaCycle Team | KillaCycle

even the _experienced_ rider lost control of it

As the weather warms up and summer gets closer, I've become painfully aware of the missing vehicle in the Tesla lineup. We need a Tesla motorcycle.

Where is my Tesla motorcycle, Elon?

All this fabulous battery, BMS, and motor tech, but I'm forced to burn up four tires at a time to experience it?

We deserve a motorcycle!!!

 

[GatorMeat]

How was it shattered?

He spent $40B on Twitter for one after telling all his plebes he didn't care about money, he needed it for Mars

 

[Knightshade]

I'd buy an upgrade to ryzen mcu for my atom based model 3 if they'd let me.

Sure, but that wouldn't support steam either- the lower-spec MCU3 in 3/Y/CT never did- only the higher end one exclusive to S/X and now going away did so.

On top of which unfortunately an MCU3 swap in older cars is much more complex than MCU2 into MCU1 cars so it's not likely to ever be offered (you'd also need to swap out the LV battery, wiring harnesses, and it's physically too large to fit where MCU2 does today).... I was surprised when that info came out, as reading on TMC it seemed like MCU1->2 was a very popular (and presumably profitable) upgrade offering to owners so I thought they'd have considered the value in offering another to the larger # of MCU2 owners in designing MCU3 but apparently they found it wasn't worth whatever they'd need to compromise to maintain backward compatibility.

intercontinental. starship ground to ground. solar catalysed methanogenesis from co2 and water.

Didn't we just review how economically silly using starship (even when at full run rate) for (nearly any) on-earth transport was like a month or two ago?

 

[scaesare]

He spent $40B on Twitter for one after telling all his plebes he didn't care about money, he needed it for Mars

Your statement implied he cared about his personal wealth for the sake of being rich, as opposed to funding what he considers laudable endeavors:

The narrative that Elon cares about the earth and humanity and doesn't care about money was shattered long ago.

Given that getting to Mars requires massive amounts of money, your statement really makes no sense. Among his other goal requiring a big pile of cash: fighting climate change, augmenting human brain/nerve function in the face of damage, and a global "public square" community platform.

 

[thx1139]

USA made battery’s are the the limiting factor for the performance.
In effect because 4680 hasn’t worked out as anticipated and due to the tax credit rules tesla is at a short term strategic disadvantage.

Would say more that Tesla didnt plan accordingly for Model 3 battery production when the IRA was passed. Had about 1.5 years to plan for the battery situation. Tesla not at a disadvantage. Tesla isnt able to fully take advantage of the competitive advantage already has. Lowest price high quality EV sedan already. Biggest disadvantage it now has is Tesla own Model Y now that after IRA the Model Y is in most cases less expensive.

 

[EQC_]

Would say more that Tesla didnt plan accordingly for Model 3 battery production when the IRA was passed. Had about 1.5 years to plan for the battery situation. ...

I dont understand what additional planning, messaging, and work Tesla realistically could have done.

What Tesla did:
1) tell any and all suppliers: we will ramp up and buy from you any and all qualified cells you can produce. Please produce more!
2) design and build the Model 3 and Y to work with packs built from a wide variety of cells (LFP in various form factors, cylindrical 2170, cylindrical 4680).
3) work to design, optimize, and refine the production of their own battery cells, to add to their available supply of cells. While reiterating they still need any and all qualified cells from suppliers.
4) shift planned 4680 production equipment from Berlin to Texas to maximize USA production under Tesla's control.
5) funded battery cell research and bought key battery cell technology IP, along with battery cell and manufacturing production design companies.

Besides quasi-impossible hypotheticals like "make the suppliers ramp up faster in US factories!" Or "just develop and ramp 4680 production faster!", what more could/should Tesla have done?

Last time this question was posed, somebody came up with something like "stick with what they know instead of hoping for the 4680's" --- but, Tesla DID keep using all the supplier cells they "knew," plus started using others. Before 4680, Tesla relied 100% on suppliers for cells and had no cell production capacity of their own. Was Tesla supposed to build their own 2170 factory instead of 4680? Is there some reason to believe that would have been faster than 4680 development? Are people imagining that the 2170 suppliers have no patents and trade secrets? Or maybe that they would have just given that IP to Tesla for free?

From the five simple bullets above of what Tesla did do, what is actually missing, besides perhaps having better luck to overcome 4680 challenges more quickly?

 

[capster]

There a battery types that support electric flight that may be in some working (flying) porotypes:-

• Lyten (probably not in prototypes)
• CATL Condensed battery - claimed to be in a 1-ton prototype,

I would guess around 2035-2040, given that approval to fly might take a while.

I predict we’ll see the earliest commercial use of eVTOL air taxis before 2030.

These will be in niche situations to begin with: Short hops maybe over water obstacles such as bays, lakes, and sounds mostly to and from major airports.

If there’s charging at both ends these short hops, then charging speed and battery durability may offset a small amount of energy density in the battery requirements—thus allowing earlier practical application. That is, the aircraft can charge while passengers debark and embark.

As for regulatory approval, I believe there’s already movement in the direction of eVTOL aircraft, but I don’t follow this particularly at the moment.

There will be some pressure on air travel providers to embrace electric air taxis as automobile autonomy and robotaxis will cut into air travel a bit. Parking garages will see less demand so their rooftops offer the opportunity for landing air taxis.

Starting perhaps between 2030 and 2035 unless there are impediments, BEV tunnels and Hyperloops could begin to create competition that will keep the airlines on their toes.

After 2035 but possibly before (if there is a technology accelerator such as a major war), earth-to-earth passenger rocket travel will begin to offer another opportunity for eVTOL in ferrying passengers to off-shore space ports.

These may seem aggressive estimates, but remember that we are again in a period of accelerated innovation and commercialization thereof.

I think Lilium Jet is worth following: Lilium Jet - The First Electric VTOL (eVTOL) Jet - Lilium

 

[Spacep0d]

You're missing the point. Elon's ironic solution to minimizing motorcycle fatalities by truck................................is by building more trucks.

Trucks don't kill riders, inattentive and low-skill people in vehicles kill riders. Teslas at least can see a motorcyclist and warn the driver in some cases, assuming the motorcyclist isn't riding too fast with insane speed disparity.

Better yet, a Tesla in FSD mode will respond better than a lot of humans, especially in scenarios where low-skill drivers fail to judge speed and distance and make turns in front of riders. This presents a roadblock that some riders cannot escape. Sometimes it's a driver being an impatient jerk without regard for the rider's safety.

The other issue is drivers who "dart", or make sudden moves that collide with a rider because they didn't see us or give themselves time to look. Drivers in larger vehicles tend not to dart as much. Primary example is people crossing the double yellow into the HOV lane, colliding with a rider.

It's never about the mass of a vehicle so much as the brain controlling it.

 

[Spacep0d]

Except Im not missing the point. You are. His goal has never been to minimize motorcycle deaths. His goal is to build the safest vehicles on the road. Period.

FSD and the collision warning/intervention system will minimize motorcyclist deaths vs. poor judgment and low skill from the vehicle drivers who cause accidents with riders.

Chief among the offenders are the people who fail to judge speed and distance and make a turn in front of an oncoming rider or worse, make the turn knowing they're failing to yield but don't care. I rode motorcycles for 20 years and it's shocking how brain dead drivers can be.

FSD is already better and certainly more patient.

 

[samppa]

I predict we’ll see the earliest commercial use of eVTOL air taxis before 2030.

These will be in niche situations to begin with: Short hops maybe over water obstacles such as bays, lakes, and sounds mostly to and from major airports.

If there’s charging at both ends these short hops, then charging speed and battery durability may offset a small amount of energy density in the battery requirements—thus allowing earlier practical application. That is, the aircraft can charge while passengers debark and embark.

As for regulatory approval, I believe there’s already movement in the direction of eVTOL aircraft, but I don’t follow this particularly at the moment.

There will be some pressure on air travel providers to embrace electric air taxis as automobile autonomy and robotaxis will cut into air travel a bit. Parking garages will see less demand so their rooftops offer the opportunity for landing air taxis.

Starting perhaps between 2030 and 2035 unless there are impediments, BEV tunnels and Hyperloops could begin to create competition that will keep the airlines on their toes.

After 2035 but possibly before (if there is a technology accelerator such as a major war), earth-to-earth passenger rocket travel will begin to offer another opportunity for eVTOL in ferrying passengers to off-shore space ports.

These may seem aggressive estimates, but remember that we are again in a period of accelerated innovation and commercialization thereof.

I think Lilium Jet is worth following: Lilium Jet - The First Electric VTOL (eVTOL) Jet - Lilium

I've been following
Joby aviation
Archer aviotion

both look promising

 

[philw1776]

The very fact that some shareholders are actively trying to keep Elon from receiving what is owed to him is example enough of how voting shareholders should not be trusted with deciding the future of AI.

I could not agree more with this. Think about it from Elon's perspective.

Also, "voting shareholders should not be trusted with deciding the future of" SpaceX. Why SpaceX will never do an IPO.
I do see SpaceX likely spinning off Skynet (sic) into an IPO, one not run by Elon.