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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Sweden did what was right for Swedes. What's right for America? The Predicted Coronavirus Catastrophe Hasn’t Arrived In Sweden. What’s Next?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm seeing 3 kinds of people locally
* wearing a mask that covers mouth and nose
* wearing a mask covering only the mouth or only the nose (more often the mouth is covered and the nose isn't, and the mask is plenty big enough to cover both, looks new, nothing wrong with it)
* not wearing a mask.
Seems like more people not wearing a mask than wearing it here. And of the ones wearing I'd say like 1 in 10 have the nose hanging out uncovered (top of the mask above the upper lip but below the nose).
I'm still surprised every time I go into a restaurant and see someone with no mask or a mask not covering mouth+nose. I'd be happy if as a first level improvement we could get everyone to wear one if they are near food or are a cashier. And a 2nd level if we could get the ones wearing a mask to cover both mouth+nose at the same time. It would measurably reduce my stress level if I could go a whole week without seeing an employee in the retail sector with a visible nostril.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
1) 0.8%* is not "far less than" 1%
2) Thousands of that 2.1m will die in the coming month, boosting IFR above 1%
* (11,708 confirmed + 5228 probable) / (8.4m NYC population * 24.9% infected) = 0.8%.
powertoold
Active Member
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Single-day death counts don't mean much. It's the 3-day Trend that you have to look at.
powertoold
Active Member
I agree, if today stays low, it'll be 2 days. I'm just following the numbers too closely for my own good, but I have a good feeling about this trend.
I should have been more clear. Far less than 1% of total population in NYC. Of those infected 1% rate of death is likely. One thing not being calculated is the number of residents who fled the city. A bunch of them landed in my state (R.I.) which quickly raised "our" infection rate. The wealthiest are long gone from the city. I'm related by marriage to someone who closely works with Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. He and his wife and son left their townhouse in Hoboken N.J. and are now living full time in Warwick N.Y. far from the city. He's not even going to get close to nyc because his wife (my relative) has a health issue.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is a weird statement. It appears the IFR is going to be right around 1% in NYC. There are biases on that ~25% number, and on balance they probably weight it towards being a high number. But even if it's exactly right, the IFR is going to be....about 1% (0.25%/0.25) It's quite possible 0.25% of the existing cases will die based on current numbers.
People keep saying Sweden is doing well, but it doesn't look that great to me. I guess we'll see what happens this week in Sweden. If things are going well, they should see a reduction in case numbers week-over-week, this week. So far, there has been a steady upwards trend.
So, I find Tesla's stock price to be incredibly high in the face of this pandemic. I understand they are making & selling cars in China, which helps. But it sounds like the current prices are pricing in a May 4th reopening of the factory, with lots of chatter about that this morning? Does anyone think this is going to happen, and how would it happen? I could believe mid-May. Or, I could believe May 4th, with some sort of heavily tested "bubble" strategy assuming the state will sign off on it (but would have thought we would have heard something specific about that by now).
Just having a hard time wrapping my head around any sort of reality that involves reopening May 4th. I do think we have to put all of the measures in place and move forward cautiously, at some point...but May 4th seems a bit early. Things seem pretty hot still.
It's a really mysterious trend!
I guess we'll see! I, too, hope that we see nice low numbers tomorrow, but I do not expect it. I do think it's somewhat likely we'll be down week over week though.
It reminds me of those motorcyclists that make a mockery of the helmet laws with their "novelty skull caps"...
Booming Sales of Novelty Helmets Boost Toll of Motorcycle Deaths - FairWarning
At my local supermarket, I noticed some of the clerks and baggers wearing masks on their chins... Not covering their mouth or nose at all. I wasn't sure if it was "I can't breath through this thing" or "If you are going to force me to wear a mask, I am going to mis-use it in protest."
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Yeah, Sweden is weird. They just about ordered all the young adults to go out and eat, drink, shop without masks to achieve herd immunity. They're sticking with it and deaths per thousand is better than the Netherlands, way better than France, Spain, Italy. That was one helluva roll of the dice.This is a weird statement. It appears the IFR is going to be right around 1% in NYC. There are biases on that ~25% number, and on balance they probably weight it towards being a high number. But even if it's exactly right, the IFR is going to be....about 1% (0.25%/0.25) It's quite possible 0.25% of the existing cases will die based on current numbers.
People keep saying Sweden is doing well, but it doesn't look that great to me. I guess we'll see what happens this week in Sweden. If things are going well, they should see a reduction in case numbers week-over-week, this week. So far, there has been a steady upwards trend.
So, I find Tesla's stock price to be incredibly high in the face of this pandemic. I understand they are making & selling cars in China, which helps. But it sounds like the current prices are pricing in a May 4th reopening of the factory, with lots of chatter about that this morning? Does anyone think this is going to happen, and how would it happen? I could believe mid-May. Or, I could believe May 4th, with some sort of heavily tested "bubble" strategy assuming the state will sign off on it (but would have thought we would have heard something specific about that by now).
Just having a hard time wrapping my head around any sort of reality that involves reopening May 4th. I do think we have to put all of the measures in place and move forward cautiously, at some point...but May 4th seems a bit early. Things seem pretty hot still.
It's a really mysterious trend!
View attachment 536480
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
This is the internet, so of course you are.
I do however suggest you delay bestowing your opinion on the world until you have a look at a deoxyhemoglobin saturation graph. Ignore the chemistry and physiological feedback mechanisms -- just grok the curve.
We Know Crowding Affects the Spread. It May Affect the Death Rate.
Densely populated areas can have nearly twice the rate of transmission, and can make Covid-19 more deadly. Other areas can open more quickly.
By David Rubin and Paul A. Offit
Dr. Rubin is the director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia,
Dr. Offit is the director of the Vaccine Education Center there.
Opinion | We Know Crowding Affects the Spread. It May Affect the Death Rate.
Densely populated areas can have nearly twice the rate of transmission, and can make Covid-19 more deadly. Other areas can open more quickly.
By David Rubin and Paul A. Offit
Dr. Rubin is the director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia,
Dr. Offit is the director of the Vaccine Education Center there.
Opinion | We Know Crowding Affects the Spread. It May Affect the Death Rate.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
- Lockdowns are working
- State numbers are built up from local prior-day reports, which aren't always filed on weekends
- Last week saw number inflation from the CDC policy change
Ah yes, the perennial question of what makes for vulnerability to totalitarianism. I'm not too worried about either Germany or Japan regressing, but it's worth remembering but the German experiment with totalitarianism ended badly for about 60 million people. And it started with national grievance, a version of white nationalism, and the promise "to make Germany great again," and to remove the "infestation" of a hated out group. Those were Hitler's actual words.
As for our own experiment with totalitarianism, we're right in the midst of that. It's not clear which way that's going to go, but the leading proponent of totalitarianism in this country was quoted not too long ago talking about some Nazis being "fine people" . . . . and that immigrants at the southern border were an "infestation". So we'll see, but all bets are off.
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powertoold
Active Member
Sweden would like a word with you though
The more appropriate description is, "precautions are working."
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
More pondering about how things could possibly go well for Tesla in the short term.
So...most people who buy Teslas are pretty well off, and I would guess a majority of them are in the high risk category (40+). If it's not a majority, it's still a significant proportion.
Even if the factories do open up (which seems doubtful by May 4th?), I assume people who are new to Tesla will want test drives at some point? How will this happen? Will there be instant tests available for Tesla employees, so that they can accompany the test drives? Or will they be unaccompanied test drives (kind of like the touchless delivery)? How much baking in the sun is required to kill the virus given that windows block 95% of the UV?
Etc. Won't this introduce an impediment to economic activity?
I assume they're going to come up with more or less frictionless means of ensuring no transmission, but it's a mystery to me what these will be, exactly, and how long it will take to establish them. Any ideas?
Briefly hit over $800 after hours, but now we're headed back down. Perhaps more pessimistic minds have prevailed.
So...most people who buy Teslas are pretty well off, and I would guess a majority of them are in the high risk category (40+). If it's not a majority, it's still a significant proportion.
Even if the factories do open up (which seems doubtful by May 4th?), I assume people who are new to Tesla will want test drives at some point? How will this happen? Will there be instant tests available for Tesla employees, so that they can accompany the test drives? Or will they be unaccompanied test drives (kind of like the touchless delivery)? How much baking in the sun is required to kill the virus given that windows block 95% of the UV?
Etc. Won't this introduce an impediment to economic activity?
I assume they're going to come up with more or less frictionless means of ensuring no transmission, but it's a mystery to me what these will be, exactly, and how long it will take to establish them. Any ideas?
Briefly hit over $800 after hours, but now we're headed back down. Perhaps more pessimistic minds have prevailed.
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