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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Off topic, I know, but when the big Tsunami hit Indonesia in 2004, the Head Office people in San Diego called the sydney Office to make sure we were all OK. I pointed out to them that Seattle was closer, and had open ocean rather than most of a continent twixt it and them.
As a moderator, you should ban yourself for using the word twixt. That's pretty uncalled for. Now if only I knew what it meant.
 
There is nothing “all hands on deck” about it other than “a limited number of workers” from the S/X line who had the OPTION to work on Model 3 on the one day the S/X line was shutdown. Please stop trying to mislead people.

Did you read the Email?

The email in question was first obtained by Bloomberg and quoted in their article:

Tesla Asks for Model 3 Factory Volunteers to Prove ‘Haters’ Wrong

Tesla will suspend Model S and Model X production Thursday and Friday because it’s ahead of target on building those this quarter, Peter Hochholdinger, vice president of production, wrote to employees in a March 21 email obtained by Bloomberg News. An unspecified “limited number” of workers who build those vehicles will have the option to work on the Model 3 line on those two days and Saturday, he said.


Stop with the "trying to mislead people" Your endless cheer leading here and on Seeking Alpha helped put a number of investors in a tough spot.

First, given your past behavior here, especially in 2016, you are in no position to criticize anyone for making misleading statements.

Second, while I have historically disagreed with ValueAnalyst's conclusions, her opinion both here at TMC and at Seeking Alpha was just ONE of many different opinions. Myself and others have consistently advocated caution when investing in TSLA because of the high volatility and extreme risk. Seeking Alpha has its share of bear voices too.

If "investors" made an investing decision based on ONE person's perspective, that's entirely their fault, especially since many other opinions were easily visible.
 
Your endless cheer leading here and on Seeking Alpha
helped put a number of investors in a tough spot.

I refer to this post, on July 6th, 2016 as an example: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/demand.70560/page-8#post-1618055, where 'X Yes?' wrote the following:

"Demand is the major challenge Tesla faces until the Model 3 arrives. Comments on this thread Model X inventory car purchase seem to indicate the "Osborne Effect" has begun. Discounts are available on the X's and hundreds of S's are now in inventory. Moving delivery to September is a brilliant marketing move, It's hard to sell capacity constrained when you have immediate delivery on the web site."
TSLA was trading at around $216/share at the time.

First, the "Osborne Effect" argument was so ridiculous on its face where Model X was concerned, that nobody who knows anything about the automotive market could have made it in good faith. This is like saying that the BMW X5, a mid-size Crossover, was going to be "Osborned" because BMW's 3-series (a compact executive sport sedan) was going to get a full model change the next year. The products serve different market segments.

Second, the demand argument itself fell flat. Tesla delivered approximately 76,230 Model S and X vehicles in 2016. In 2017, Tesla delivered 101,312, only 1550 of which were Model 3. TSLA was trading at around $316 at the start of January, 2018. It is flagrantly hypocritical of 'X Yes?' to blame ONE analyst here for possibly costing investors money, when their own narrative, if followed, would have also cost investors dearly in the past.



People should also read this post: snippiness, where 'X Yes?' wrote, on June 6, 2016:

"I created an account on this site because I'm interested in buying an X. I don't have the patience to put up with unresolved issues, so I'm waiting to see if the problems can be fixed.

I do not own Tesla stock and could[sic] care less, what level it's at."

The underlined turned out to be a complete lie, given the amount of time later 'X Yes?' spent posting in the Investor's forum thread "Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016", while simultaneously spreading FUD in multiple Model X threads, like Model X Autopilot Problem - Pretty Scary and Another Model X crash, driver says autopilot was engaged



This pattern of behavior shouldn't be tolerated by the community.
 
First, given your past behavior here, especially in 2016, you are in no position to criticize anyone for making misleading statements.


Nor are you. As the resident FUD detector for this forum, have you ever called out Tesla for their FUD? A number of of folks on this forum are in a tough spot after relying on promises that didn't materialize.
 
Took delivery today of my vin 11842 Pearl White, Aero wheels and AP. The build quality was top notch. Just spent an hour going over the car in full sun light. The seals, panel, trim and glass alignment and interior components were all perfect. All the doors close and open smoothly. The interior is free of any rattles or noises at highway speeds. Compared to my 2015 BMW 335i the Model 3 is superior build and drive quality in everyway. The suspension on the Model 3 is perfectly tuned. Car feels solid and planted even over rough roads. My car came out of manufacturing about a week ago. Quality is going along with the ramp which is great.

I showed the car to all my neighbors and they were all impressed. It truely is a car of the 21st century. The model 3 is going to be a runaway hit. I lost on paper almost $100k of my profits in Tesla over the last couple of weeks and I don’t even care. We are all going to look back at this recent stock dip and wonder why it ever happened and why didn’t we just buy more shares.

Stay strong, ignore the talking heads, shorts and hit pieces on the news wire.
 
People should also read this post: snippiness, where 'X Yes?' wrote, on June 6, 2016:

"I created an account on this site because I'm interested in buying an X. I don't have the patience to put up with unresolved issues, so I'm waiting to see if the problems can be fixed.

I do not own Tesla stock and could[sic] care less, what level it's at."
As true today as in '16. I certainly was considering a MX in '16. After reading reviews from current owners, decided this was a bad idea. Kept reading and decided to go short on the stock. Patience was rewarded, might even get better next week. Monday will certainly be an interesting day...
 
Demand is the major challenge Tesla faces until the Model 3 arrives. Comments on this thread Model X inventory car purchase seem to indicate the "Osborne Effect" has begun. Discounts are available on the X's and hundreds of S's are now in inventory. Moving delivery to September is a brilliant marketing move, It's hard to sell capacity constrained when you have immediate delivery on the web site."

We'll know more Monday on this. Not a great sign when they curtail production on their "high margin" product to build their low margin product. If demand on the MS is so stellar, why the 10K discounts at quarter end?
 
We'll know more Monday on this. Not a great sign when they curtail production on their "high margin" product to build their low margin product. If demand on the MS is so stellar, why the 10K discounts at quarter end?

X Yes? You are now on my ignore list. It clears up the thread tremendously and I would recommend others to do the same.

Finally some balanced journalism:

Tesla drivers still feeling safe In their cars despite deadly crash

Model X owners are responding during media interviews at charging stations.

"I think autopilot is safe but you can't put on autopilot and watch tv. And not give any credence to the signals that they provide”.

Here’s another quote that many members/owners here has been alluding to:

"I'm not too concerned but it's still an early technology," said Tesla owner Daniel Lawless. He says he is always in control and the car alerts you if you take your hands off the wheel. About autopilot, he says, "I'll use it but I've got my hands on the wheel, I'm watching the road still."
 
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Took delivery today of my vin 11842 Pearl White, Aero wheels and AP. The build quality was top notch. Just spent an hour going over the car in full sun light. The seals, panel, trim and glass alignment and interior components were all perfect. All the doors close and open smoothly. The interior is free of any rattles or noises at highway speeds. Compared to my 2015 BMW 335i the Model 3 is superior build and drive quality in everyway. The suspension on the Model 3 is perfectly tuned. Car feels solid and planted even over rough roads. My car came out of manufacturing about a week ago. Quality is going along with the ramp which is great.

I showed the car to all my neighbors and they were all impressed. It truely is a car of the 21st century. The model 3 is going to be a runaway hit. I lost on paper almost $100k of my profits in Tesla over the last couple of weeks and I don’t even care. We are all going to look back at this recent stock dip and wonder why it ever happened and why didn’t we just buy more shares.

Stay strong, ignore the talking heads, shorts and hit pieces on the news wire.
How was the delivery center?
Lots of Model 3s being delivered I hope!
 
Took delivery today of my vin 11842 Pearl White, Aero wheels and AP. The build quality was top notch. Just spent an hour going over the car in full sun light. The seals, panel, trim and glass alignment and interior components were all perfect. All the doors close and open smoothly. The interior is free of any rattles or noises at highway speeds. Compared to my 2015 BMW 335i the Model 3 is superior build and drive quality in everyway. The suspension on the Model 3 is perfectly tuned. Car feels solid and planted even over rough roads. My car came out of manufacturing about a week ago. Quality is going along with the ramp which is great.

I showed the car to all my neighbors and they were all impressed. It truely is a car of the 21st century. The model 3 is going to be a runaway hit. I lost on paper almost $100k of my profits in Tesla over the last couple of weeks and I don’t even care. We are all going to look back at this recent stock dip and wonder why it ever happened and why didn’t we just buy more shares.

Stay strong, ignore the talking heads, shorts and hit pieces on the news wire.

That’s great man, I configured the pearl white as wel with sport rims and auto pilot. My delivery window is 4-8 weeks in Ontario. I can’t wait to get my hands on this puppy.
 
There were at least 10 being delivered all today at the Bellevue service center. The whole experience from ordering, working with inside sales and delivery were all top flight. Their documents are so clean and easy to read. There are no added fees or crap you typically deal with as part of the dealership experience. Everything updates on the website as you flow through the process. I told them after watching about 1000 videos on YouTube I didn’t need the orientation. I was literally out the door driving in 15 minutes.

How was the delivery center?
Lots of Model 3s being delivered I hope!
 
As the resident FUD detector for this forum, have you ever called out Tesla for their FUD?

First, it's clear that you don't know what FUD is. The question as posed is nonsensical.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt - Wikipedia

"Fear, uncertainty and doubt (often shortened to FUD) is a disinformation strategy used in sales, marketing, public relations, talk radio, politics, religious organizations, and propaganda. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear."​

Tesla does not "appeal to fear" through dubious or false information. The entire premise of Tesla's way of doing business depends on their products actually providing a better experience than what the competitors offer (whether they achieve this is a matter of subjectivity, but that is the company's intent). In the documentary film 'Revenge of the Electric Car', it's explained that Tesla started with the Roadster and then the Model S to prove to consumers that EVs could be fun, attractive, and useful, rather than slow and boring.

An actual FUD campaign example involves SCO Group, which made all kinds of vague/unsubstantiated claims that it actually owned the IP behind Linux, and demanded exorbitant licensing fees from Linux users in the early 2000's. SCO was ultimately unsuccessful in court: SCO Group - Wikipedia



A number of of folks on this forum are in a tough spot after relying on promises that didn't materialize.

Second, I have no reservations about objecting to predictions on the Bull side that I believe to be unduly optimistic and/or reckless:

For example, 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion, a claim that Tesla's automation would result in "Global Domination" by Model Y, which I believed was unlikely anytime soon.

And 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action, From our very own ValueAnalyst, who claimed to tell the future with "100% proven accuracy". I specifically characterized that kind of certainty as "dangerous".

Generally speaking, I do not like the fact that Elon Musk publicly sets aggressive timelines that cannot be met. However, I note that when he sets a goal, he generally does eventually achieve it, albeit usually several years late. Falcon 1 reached successful orbit about 5 years late. Model S was 2 years late. Model X was 2-3 years late. Falcon Heavy was around 5 years late.



Third, who are "a number of folks"? One person had serious losses on February 20th, 2018, but this was when TSLA was still well above $300/share, and the person in question had a margin loan of well over 7 Million USD. I can recall only one other person who expressed anger at losing $ on short term options, and I read these threads often.

So I think it irresponsible to make vague claims that recent TSLA prices have resulted in broad financial difficulty.
 
Last Sunday:

Agree with most of this, but "another 2500 vins early or mid next week" is optimistic; they just registered close to 5,000, so I'm not expecting any more next week. On the other hand, I agree with the VIN assignments expectation. We should see some in the 15,000's by the end of next week, and if we get 16,000+ by Friday, then shots on me.

And now:


So close, but so far. No shots on me.

How in the world is the stock at $260?!
 
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