2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

What impact would recent shale oil development in Argentina have on your scenario? Not sure that OPEC can control World oil prices with fracking now viable at $40/barrel oil.

ex-US shale is not expected to be as productive as Permian. Even Bakken and Eagle Ford have proven to be busts.

the price you mentioned is wellhead cost, but what matters in the longer term is full-cycle cost, which is above $80 for US shale.

You can read more about this in my article (publicly available): Shorting This Industry Is Very Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

 

[Turing]

Great to see you posting on these threads, WhiskeySauer. For those that don't know, he's been doing sterling work on Tesla Motors (Tesla, Inc) • r/teslamotors fighting the bears and trolls in the trenches with extremely well thought out arguments and analyses. Hope you'll be posting here more often, these investor threads would really benefit from your sage input.

Admittedly I'm not much of a poster myself, still have a lot to learn, so I'm now going to become a TMC supporting member to redress the balance a bit.

I always assumed he was one of the regulars on here. He posts some really insightful stuff on r/teslamotors. Glad to see him join the discussions here.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Fred also pointed this out: "Kallo is one of the top-ranked analysts on Tip Rank: #729 out of 4560 with a 56% success rate and 6.7% average return.

Hopefully bears will one day recognize my TipRanks ratings too: ValueAnalyst - Performance Profile | TipRanks

 

[Reciprocity]

I recognize that this is the rhetoric on media and that such motivation would help Aramco price the IPO higher.

These two facts alone, however, are not enough to conclude that they are actively trying to raise oil prices to benefit the Aramco IPO.

After having researched oil market fundamentals extensively over the last 18 months, I believe that OPEC is needed to prevent very extreme ups and downs (more than what we have experienced) in oil prices primarily caused by the inelastic demand curve.

I do think OPEC cuts are needed in 2017 in order to prevent $200+ oil in 2020 and beyond.

They are actively trying to raise old prices with production cuts. I mean, that is a well known fact. Its not even debatable. Maybe its debatable that they are doing to help juice their IPO, but are certainly trying to get adherence to oil cuts in OPEC.

dont understand the logic of OPEC cuts preventing $200+ oil, cuts would increase oil price by lower supply.

 

[Hogfighter]

Hopefully bears will one day recognize my TipRanks ratings too: ValueAnalyst - Performance Profile | TipRanks

While I appreciate your inputs on this forum, I don't appreciate your self-aggrandizement. We could all go around posting how well we've done over time, but I couldn't give a rats ass. Contribute to the discussion, or don't contribute.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

They are actively trying to raise old prices with production cuts. I mean, that is a well known fact. Its not even debatable. Maybe its debatable that they are doing to help juice their IPO, but are certainly trying to get adherence to oil cuts in OPEC.

dont understand the logic of OPEC cuts preventing $200+ oil, cuts would increase oil price by lower supply.

They are actively trying to "balance the market" (i.e. lower inventories to 5-year average).

What you are stating as a "well known fact that is not even debatable" is your opinion.

In short, temporary production cuts prevent extreme cap-ex cutbacks in long-cycle investment. This prevents extreme production declines 5+ years out, which would cause extreme price surges.

The problem is: the cutbacks may have come too little too late to prevent oil price spike in 2019/20 and beyond.

This is good for TSLA, but bad for the global consumer, and therefore global GDP beyond 2020.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

While I appreciate your inputs on this forum, I don't appreciate your self-aggrandizement. We could all go around posting how well we've done over time, but I couldn't give a rats ass. Contribute to the discussion, or don't contribute.

I think past performance is a valuable piece of information for professional lurkers as you claim to be.

Otherwise, why would every article that mentions an analyst name include the analyst's TipRanks?

 

[LoveTSLA]

Waymo does not have Elon Musk
That's what most analysts don't seem to get
Competition does not have EM
And that makes ALL the difference
My $10 million bet is not on Tesla
It's on Elon Musk

Totally agree! If you were NFLX investors three years ago, remember those bears arguments that the competitions from big money backers like Verizon, Disney supporting HULU and HBO, etc. will crash NFLX and NFLX should have been bankrupted years ago. Similar story to AMZN. Where are those competitors now ?and NFLX and AMZN stocks tripled for past three years!

 

[DurandalAI]

Totally agree! If you were NFLX investors three years ago, remember those bears arguments that the competitions from big money backers like Verizon, Disney supporting HULU and HBO, etc. will crash NFLX and NFLX should have been bankrupted years ago. Similar story to AMZN. Where are those competitors now ?and NFLX and AMZN stocks tripled for past three years!

People tend to underestimate disruptive technologies. I realize this is a bit off-topic, and apologies in advance. HULU didn't do as well as Netflix because people such as myself are disgusted with advertisements and want to watch programs ad-free. It wasn't until recently they offered an ad-free option, at a higher price point. HBO had the issue of people not wanting to pay for HBO cable to use the online streaming service. Once again, companies desperately clinging to their old business model out of fear, and thus losing out on a new business model.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You can read more about this in my article....

5 of the 10 post on this page are from this poster, 2 of them are essentially spam for his SA content. Can this poster be banned/removed or moderated in some fashion?

Apologies for the in-thread request, but it's mucking up the whole conversation.

 

[D-egg-O]

310 the resistance level today so far?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

5 of the 10 post on this page are from this poster, 2 of them are essentially spam for his SA content. Can this poster be banned/removed or moderated in some fashion?

Apologies for the in-thread request, but it's mucking up the whole conversation.

I'm literally telling you the future with 100% historically proven accuracy, and you're telling me to do it nicely.

Fine, I'll stop.

 

[Starno]

I sold my house to buy more TSLA, now I'm living with my wife and 2 child in our Model X. It's perfect.

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Little joke of the day.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm literally telling you the future with 100% proven accuracy...

I am generally skeptical of anyone who claims to know the future with certainty. In my observation this kind of confidence is dangerous.

There was a forum member here named "tftf", which stood for "tales from the future" according to their Seeking Alfalfa account. This self-proclaimed prophet was completely wrong about numerous product predictions. Actually, it became obvious quickly that this person knew little to nothing about automobiles. I'm not saying that ValueAnalyst is going to be wrong in the same way, but confidence does not imply correctness.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I sold my house to buy more TSLA, now I'm living with my wife and 2 child in our Model X. It's perfect.

-----

Little joke of the day.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am generally skeptical of anyone who claims to know the future with certainty. In my observation this kind of confidence is dangerous.

There was a forum member here named "tftf", which stood for "tales from the future" according to their Seeking Alfalfa account. This self-proclaimed prophet was completely wrong about numerous product predictions. Actually, it became obvious quickly that this person knew little to nothing about automobiles. I'm not saying that ValueAnalyst is going to be wrong in the same way, but confidence does not imply correctness.

I was just referring to my tipranks numbers, which are based on 1-year returns. Obviously I've been wrong before (short term price predictions), otherwise I'd be on an island sipping pina coladas. Maybe later this year after the squeeze.

 

[wsucougz]

I sold my house to buy more TSLA, now I'm living with my wife and 2 child in our Model X.

An advice or not?

 

[JRP3]

While I appreciate your inputs on this forum, I don't appreciate your self-aggrandizement. We could all go around posting how well we've done over time, but I couldn't give a rats ass. Contribute to the discussion, or don't contribute.

We look at the track records of other analysts, I don't have a problem with him linking his, or posting links to his publicly available articles. Not to say I agree with all his conclusions but he at least seems to make a real effort and put in the time.

 

[MXWing]

I sold my house to buy more TSLA, now I'm living with my wife and 2 child in our Model X. It's perfect.

-----

Little joke of the day.

You as well? We use the gym membership to take showers. I hope the super charger network keeps running, not sure how to stay warm at night otherwise.

 

[zdriver]

FYI, this was dropped a bit after 1pm eastern - http://worksafe.typepad.com/files/worksafe_tesla5_24.pdf

"Analysis of Tesla Injury Rates: 2014 to 2017"

Algos caught it and sold... then got burnt by dark pools buying up every share the algos sold, and then some.