[Poll] P3 Free Lifetime Unlimited Supercharging vs. $5,000 Refund

[airbil]

If Tesla’s goal is to get early believer/buyers on par with current day buyers, they should at the very least...
Refund $5k PLUS $500 Sales Tax
And
Provide 6 mos free supercharging.

If they are going to satisfy us early friends, they should go all the way and not throw us less than currently available.
Great car but this debacle leaves me feeling used.
My .02

 

[Maximilien]

If Tesla’s goal is to get early believer/buyers on par with current day buyers, they should at the very least...
Refund $5k PLUS $500 Sales Tax
And
Provide 6 mos free supercharging.

If they are going to satisfy us early friends, they should go all the way and not throw us less than currently available.
Great car but this debacle leaves me feeling used.
My .02

It's funny how we forget about the tax of $5000, which is still not small amount to disregard.

I am pretty sure early adopters will not get FUSC (not even 6 mo.) automatically when Tesla issues the check.

 

[pdamski]

I replied with Free Supercharging as I also live in CA where prices at super low are still $0.12-$0.13/kwh. I have spent the money and it is included in my loan. I would prefer to not have an additional payment for Supercharging going forward as I hope to do some traveling in the car.

BTW, I have no expectation of a refund. I made my deal and signed on the line. Anything that happens in that regard would be considered going above and beyond what I would expect of an auto manufacturer. I took delivery the day before the price drop. I have been requesting Free Supercharging since I took delivery and hope for the best.

 

[Maximilien]

If Tesla want us to believe the FUSC is worth more than $5K refund, they should stop keep reintroducing it.

They have been reintroducing it too many times that people will now believe we will have more opportunities in the future purchase.

 

[airbil]

It’s a nice wish to believe that Tesla wants to be a feel good, save the earth, & love their customer company ...and maybe they are but when they
give new buyers

$5500 discount ($5k + tax)
and
Free SC for 6 months

vs us legacy customers, I assume that they value customers they do not yet have over folk’s that have already stepped up.
They have to drop the price to get volume up.
For a while at least, the new buyer will be king until they are old buyers, ... maybe.
But there’s good incentive to value the new customer grow sales and profits and get the stock price up in order to entice bond holders to convert to stock.
How Elon Musk might make $920 million in Tesla debt go away
That said; if they keep leaving legacy customers feeling screwed... this is not a good thing. Not good at all.

 

[Maximilien]

BUMP

Hardly doubt the recent SC rate would change most people's poll but I thought some may change the vote if they do many road trips or live in apartment complexes...

 

[Vines]

The recent change in supercharger rates did make me think twice, but I have already changed my mind. I asked for the $5k refund check last week. Overall, I was already looking at paying $0.26 per kWh, so that increased $0.05 to $0.10. Its still likely better for me to get the refund than trying to drive and supercharge extra just to get my value out of it. It will still be a long time at my current usage before I hit $5k worth of supercharging even at $0.50 per kWh.

 

[N54TT]

Recent change had me think for a second.....but then I remembered I have only supercharged once since taking delivery end of September. Even that wasn’t necessary as I was only testing it out. I’ve only taken a handful of trips the past couple years that might have required a supercharge. Sucks that I’m gonna pay more for those trips...but still No where NEAR 5k....even if they tripled the rates every year. I just don’t drive far enough and often enough to charge other than home.

 

[MXWing]

It’s gotta be a $1 per kw before it MIGHT make sense and that’s if I value my time at less than 12 an hour if I have to go out of my way to charge

 

[UltralightBeam]

What's the current average time for a request to be honored on the 5K? Also, do you just put in a support message from your Tesla account?

 

[mswlogo]

What's the current average time for a request to be honored on the 5K? Also, do you just put in a support message from your Tesla account?

They say 4-8 weeks but most folks are seeing a check in just a few weeks.

Yes, send a support message through your account on their web site (I set mine to escalate as well). Took 6 days for them to reply.

 

[nwdiver]

It’s gotta be a $1 per kw before it MIGHT make sense and that’s if I value my time at less than 12 an hour if I have to go out of my way to charge

??? $120 for 120kW charging speed or $50 for 50kWh of charge?

 

[MXWing]

??? $120 for 120kW charging speed or $50 for 50kWh of charge?

Kilowatt hour. Napkin math was 70 kWh in 90 minutes. Not counting transit time both ways, potential of waiting for charger or opportunity cost of alternate activities besides transport and charging.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Even with the higher Supercharging rates, it would take a whole lot of Supercharging to make it worth $5000! I'm a bit unclear on what the new rates are, on average, but reports I've read suggest that 31¢/kWh is now fairly typical. $5000 at 31¢/kWh works out to 16,129 kWh of Supercharging.

For road trips at 80 mph with climate control on, I'd guess a Model 3 would do 300 Wh/mile (as opposed to perhaps 240 Wh/mile for local driving). At 300 Wh/mile 16,129 kWh works out to about 54k miles of Supercharging (at 240 Wh/mile it would be about 67k miles of Supercharging).

For most people that's a lot of Supercharging miles — I presume that would take a lot of years to drive that many road trip miles. And that's not even counting the time value of money: $5000 earning interest every year would be increasing. (Of course, it is possible that Tesla will raise prices some more as well, although I'm guessing not for some time after this latest increase.)

Will you even keep the car long enough to cover that $5000 via Supercharging? For many, perhaps most, the answer is "no."

I have FUSC and most of my 20k miles per year are road trips — I'd take the $5000!

 

[Jedi2155]

So my nifty calculator tells me that at $1/kwh, it would take 3.6 years to break-even assuming 2400 supercharge miles a year which is likely how much I would use if that was the case. I would reach it around 87000 miles which is quite reasonable length of time.

Definitely makes sense to keep FUSC in this case.

I think $0.50/kWh is more likely in the next 5 years, and that's only in California and a few high priced states (it might be half that in other states). Beyond that, it's going to get priced out of the market IMO (unless something else happens). With that value, it would take 5 years to break even around 117k miles.

Makes sense to keep FUSC for many people who road trip their cars.

Right now at $0.34/kWh, the break even point is 5.5 years at 131k miles. With the previous $0.26, it was 5.8 years.

I haven't requested my FUSC for $5k yet and while it makes sense for me to exchange, I'm still hesitant.....(they just built a 24 stall urban charger literally a block away from my office which makes me if i gave up FUSC).

 

[clostridium]

Makes sense to keep FUSC for many people who road trip their cars.

View attachment 370291

Right now at $0.34/kWh, the break even point is 5.5 years at 131k miles. With the previous $0.26, it was 5.8 years.
View attachment 370293

I haven't requested my FUSC for $5k yet and while it makes sense for me to exchange, I'm still hesitant.....(they just built a 24 stall urban charger literally a block away from my office which makes me if i gave up FUSC).

Your analysis is well done and interesting. The key for people is to appropriately adjust the input variables for how they would use their car in terms of supercharger miles per year, etc. and how long they would anticipate keeping the car themselves. The 3 FUSC has less value than the prior variant of FUSC since it doesn't transfer to another owner. I also don't know what would happen if your car was wrecked. Perhaps Tesla would take pity on you.

The way I looked at it was more napkin math - the $5000 buys me 10000 kWh if the price goes up to 0.5/kWh. 10000 kWh is more than 30k supercharging miles. It would take me at least 6 years to hit that based on my current annual mileage and percentage of supercharging (around 25% but that's biased higher because of multiple road trips in 4 months I've owned car, I'd bet my long term is more like 10-15%).

During that time $5000 can be used in other ways so of course it is simplistic to act like it's just the same $5k the whole time but it serves my purposes. The refund was a no brainer for me too. Perhaps I'd supercharge enough and "win" by not taking the refund but that's a low probability scenario AND once we are 6+ years into the future and 120k+ miles of driving the probability of having the car each passing year goes down and down yet that's when I'd be enjoying my victory in the value proposition.

It is funny how the human mind works though - I find myself revisiting the decision in my head each time I supercharge. The human mind loves "free" stuff!

Craig

 

[Powered By Jay]

After 4 months, I supercharged 145 kWh. Most of this was done when I was still getting it for free. I’m on track for 435 kWh of supercharging per year. Even at $1 per kWh, it would take me over 10 years to make keeping free supercharging worth it vs the $5k.

 

[Jedi2155]

Since October, I've supercharged the following:

And charged at various Level 2 places as well:

At the current rate of $0.34/kWh, that would've costed me $461.04. If I just charged at home, I would've spent ~$140. This is over 3 months and supercharging has been my primary method of charging due to their proximity.

I'd be spending $1844/year on supercharging if I was to keep this up, but if I just charged at home, there would be many conveniences and it would be better for my battery pack....

I should really just take the $5000 and save Tesla the cost TBH.

 

[N54TT]

Since October, I've supercharged the following:
View attachment 370321

And charged at various Level 2 places as well:
View attachment 370320

At the current rate of $0.34/kWh, that would've costed me $461.04. If I just charged at home, I would've spent ~$140. This is over 3 months and supercharging has been my primary method of charging due to their proximity.

I'd be spending $1844/year on supercharging if I was to keep this up, but if I just charged at home, there would be many conveniences and it would be better for my battery pack....

I should really just take the $5000 and save Tesla the cost TBH.

Just curious. If you have decent charging rate/capability at home, why are superchargers your primary method? Is it located at a place you frequent often and spend time at? Or do you just sit there in your car?

I have a supercharger located within 10-15 min from my house and is on the way from work-home. I could supercharge there for the life of the car and use more than 5K worth of supercharge costs. But it’s inconvenient to be sitting there for 20-40 min...and at times there are others waiting to charge....who might REALLY need to charge. I also don’t think the free vs low costs I would pay at home (.18 cents/kWh) is worth the inconvenience of sitting in my car. The only time I will supercharge is if I’m actually out on a longer road trip and really need to charge....which for me is typically only a few times a year or two even. Tesla raising the SC costs has no bearing on me giving up free supercharging.....other than being annoyed those random trips will cost me a bit more. So Thank you Tesla for my monoblock forged wheels

 

[MXWing]

Since October, I've supercharged the following:
View attachment 370321

And charged at various Level 2 places as well:
View attachment 370320

At the current rate of $0.34/kWh, that would've costed me $461.04. If I just charged at home, I would've spent ~$140. This is over 3 months and supercharging has been my primary method of charging due to their proximity.

I'd be spending $1844/year on supercharging if I was to keep this up, but if I just charged at home, there would be many conveniences and it would be better for my battery pack....

I should really just take the $5000 and save Tesla the cost TBH.

Here's my 2 cents qualitative as you've done the quantitative.

I think there is 4 variables at play:

What is known:

FUSC doesn’t even make financial sense at even $1 KWH

SC negative impact to battery? ? As I don’t know myself the answer authoritatively.

Forgone opportunity cost of driving more advanced Tesla’s in the coming years to hang on to FUSC.

Forgone economic profit:

5000 towards solar infrastructure versus FUSC
5000 towards loan principle or some other debt.
16.7 TSLA shares today. Could be 20 shares Tuesday or could be 12 shares Tuesday.
Is the $5,000 credit going towards appreciating assets, debt reduction, or some other dumb spending equivalent to $5,000 dumb FUSC spending?

What is unknown:

Future price increases though unlikely to reach $1 CPI adjusted, ceteris paribus.

Supercharger V3 network compatibility, would reduce time opportunity cost of supercharging.

More SC stations, creating more convenient charging options.

FSD charging without user intervention. This reduces or potentially eliminates time opportunity cost of charging.

Does Tesla reintroduce FUSC later? If so, not claiming $5,000 would be epic fail.

Why doesn’t Tesla offer FUSC for $5000 or more as it’s proven to “not make sense” so it becomes “profit” for them? My theory on why Tesla does not do this is because of time of demand charging that outweighs the delta between FUSC revenue and FUSC COGs.

What if you total your car?

Can you replace your battery, and at what cost? (Setting up new opportunity costs of $ between 2018 Model 3 and future Tesla)


What is human:

FREE *sugar*. WOOOOOOOOOOO (Though nothing in life is "free" not love, not death, nothing)

Exclusivity. You have it and no one else can get it. You can't even buy it. Not on a Model 3 anyways.

Fear of the unknown. Predictive analysis only goes so far and gets less accurate the further you go into the future.

--

Looking at things qualitatively, I have decided to not submit my request for $5,000 even though it makes every sense to do so for the consumer.

To Tesla, they must feel, the delivery cost of $5,000 is more than a $5,000 check.

The reason is there hasn't been an expiration date that has been established. It makes sense to just hang on to a call option that has no theta decay. WHY Tesla is so horrible at pricing their options I don't know but I'm finally confident at the model needed to exploit it going forward.