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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Last post on this from me. But even NATO deleted this tweet that showed the Nazi symbols.

ps : US has a long history of supporting ultra right only to be bitten by them later - like Osama in Afghanistan and ISIS in Syria.

Bottom line - these guys can be cut-adrift as part of any peace deal.

That is win/win because maybe Ukraine is better off without them, and it gives Putin a achievement which he can claim.

They were a militia promoted to a regular army unit because they were such effective fighters, this fight was always coming.

There is also a lot of very ugly people some with NAZI links, and some with a long history of human rights abuses on the Russian side.

Maybe Ukraine fumbled the PR on this issue, but it is too late to worry about that now.
 
Bottom line - these guys can be cut-adrift as part of any peace deal.

That is win/win because maybe Ukraine is better off without them, and it gives Putin a achievement which he can claim.

They were a militia promoted to a regular army unit because they were such effective fighters, this fight was always coming.

There is also a lot of very ugly people some with NAZI links, and some with a long history of human rights abuses on the Russian side.

Maybe Ukraine fumbled the PR on this issue, but it is too late to worry about that now.
Just some house cleaning. Disband the unit and put the soldiers in regular units. Compared the the death squads coming from Russian controlled chechnya they were babes in the woods.
 
In Putin and the publics eyes.

1. There are real nazis who does the whole hail Hitler thing in Ukraine.

2. They have a real political party

3. The Ukrainian government allows them to fight with their own military to kill Russian civilians(most likely due to collateral damage).

4. The president also actively suppressing Russian culture in the area like banning the Russian language.

The more you learn, the more you understand how Putin and his people mostly support this war and how they are fighting the nazis. All true stories, just wildly exaggerated and has nothing to do with west Ukraine.

Moral of the story, when in doubt, never side with the Nazis even if they are of mass benefit to you at any given time. Now it turned into a propaganda that's hard to wash off.

This book has been around a few years. I couldn't finish it because so much of it was unfolding in the news at the time.
On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century - Kindle edition by Snyder, Timothy. Politics & Social Sciences Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com.

Two things dictators (and wannabe dictators) do is exaggerate any tiny bit of evidence that supports their position, while completely ignoring any evidence to the contrary. And another thing is always accuse the other guy of being guilty of all the things you're doing, even if there is zero evidence. If caught, claim you were doing those things only because the other guy started it (even when they never did it). Rinse and repeat.

It's done by nationalists in democracies all over the world and it's been done frequently by Russia. It's an almost ancient play of authoritarians at this point.

Almost every functioning democracy in the world has a nationalist party or nationalist wing at this point. All of it is something that has been there for decades, but Putin has watered those seeds and made them grow where ever he found them. They are much stronger and have influence in national politics in many countries because that's been part of Putin's plan to tear down western democracies.


interesting analysis from someone who has actually taken part in US war games & outcomes

This also (although from 2016) gives an insight into some events in 2014 and saying Russia was running the insurgents / separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine.


The author of the first piece is coming from the now debunked idea that Russia's military is a viable combat organization. It may have been true of the Soviet military in 1975, but is woefully out of date. The war in Ukraine has shown that the only two outcomes are Ukraine ends up a nuclear landscape (and Putin races to the top of the list for all time bad guys everywhere outside of Russia), or Russia loses after taking staggering losses because they threw an amateur army gutted by corruption up against a western trained and equipped army.

Even though Ukraine is taking heavy losses to civilian infrastructure, it's winning the war. Russia has failed to take most day 1 objectives. Ukraine's military is showing no signs of being in trouble. They are not in a position to do much on the offensive yet, but they have stopped the invaders on most fronts.

The Russians have serious supply problems, serious morale problems, and they were dumb enough to launch a full scale invasion during the Rsputitsa
Rasputitsa - Wikipedia

The 10 day forecast for northern Ukraine is for more Rasputitsa weather as far out as the forecast went
Kiev, Ukraine - Detailed long-term weather forecast - Extended 10-day weather report | Weather Atlas

This army is a shadow of the old Soviet army manned by children who don't know anything about fighting led by incompetent idiots who got there by their political connections rather than by having any talent. Some of the media still want to continue the narrative that this is a Goliath (Russia) vs David (Ukraine).

It's more the story of an old empire rotted to the core trying to regain its old glory by beating up on a neighbor they thought as weak, but turned out to have been seriously working to improve themselves and is more than a match of an opponent.

Yum Brands(pizza hut, taco bell, kfc) will redirect profits to humanitarian air and suspend any new development in Russia. Meh. Not bad.

Nothing from Coca-Cola or PepsiCo that I've seen.


Due to some weird things that happens in the 1970s, Pepsi is far more popular in Russia than Coca Cola is.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

Those who do learn from history are doomed to stand by helplessly while everyone else repeats its mistakes.

There are times I've felt like Cassandra.

Interesting choice of combat vehicles coming into Ukraine from Russia 🤨

View attachment 778339

There was a discussion about that a few days ago. Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel if they are pressing civilian cars into combat use.
 
I wrote a letter today to our federal government (translated by deepl):
>>
Dear Sir or Madam,

I am appalled that Germany is not following the example of other countries and extending the sanctions to Russian energy supplies. This is also in line with current EU requirements and what is morally right and necessary.

With criminals and murderers one makes no business!

The reason given by Mr. Habeck today, that it is bad for our economy, I can understand. But after thorough consideration, the lives of many innocent people seem to me to count more than a few percent GNP. There is no need to fear unrest in Germany because of this, if the politicians (you are the ones meant here) justify and support it sensibly.

We still have to accelerate the energy turnaround considerably. It is also a mistake to shut down the existing nuclear power plants to bridge a (short) transition period - max. 2 years. Tesla has proven that you can build entire factories even in Germany in 2 years. Can't Germany do more than Tesla?

The intensification of coal-fired power as an energy source is unbearable for me. Coal should be shut down immediately. For reasons of air pollution and because of dependence on foreign coal supplies.

Yes, the conversion process is always difficult and involves costs and frictions. Let's use this war as an opportunity to really address and accelerate these things now. President Kennedy successfully motivated the nation with the Apollo program. We Germans can do a lot and must now mobilize our strengths. Be courageous, many of the citizens here are ready for more than you want to expect and trust them at the moment.

Think anew!


--
Johann

<<

Let's see how much that help.

Also we are opening our house to Uranian refugees needing a place to stay, food, etc.
As someone who works in offshore wind and electrical generation the push by a lot of governments to renewables is in my opinion, rushed.
Until they get a massive increase in interconnectors between nations in Europe at least (inc UK & Eire). 2020 renewables out produced fossil fuel electricity at around 43% of UK requirements. Unfortunately it is not reliable as an individual source locally (hence needing interconnection). Nuclear is a steady output but cannot easily be ramped up or down quickly to meet surges in demand, it provides the backbone of supply if you like. Gas turbines are much quicker to be adjusted but generally quite small output. Then of course in UK we have the famous “Eastenders” coffee break hydro generation where water is released from a dam at the top of a hill through turbines to power all the kettles after Eastenders or 1/2 time in the World Cup. This then gets pumped back up the hill overnight (on Octopus Go cheap rate🤣).
Basically renewables atm can only be part of the mix not the whole answer, until thing’s like tidal or wave generation becomes more viable.
The German government made a bit of a knee jerk reaction in shutting nuclear power off so quickly (again imo). Thereby leaving themselves open to Putin playing silly buggers with the gas supply. It would have been wiser with hindsight to draw down nuclear slowly as renewables became a more viable source. Not giving so much of the supply chain to Putin in the case of gas.
Mistakes have been made (probably continue to be made), however hopefully the EU, UK government’s will learn from this and diversify the mix better. This is of course until renewables become a much more viable source.

My hat off to you for opening your house to refugees I wish I was in a position to do so & the UK gov would drop the visa requirement. My wife (the Russian) has been collecting clothes and medical supples & is dropping them off tomorrow at a Ukraine charity collection point. It’s the best we can do for now.

 

I heard this last night. That's why the Russians have been talking on unencrypted radio. Apparently their "secure" communication system built in 2019 was reliant on 3G cell networks working, and never did work all that well.

Meh, I feel like it's just a reroute. China/India buys more Russian oil and reduce opec oil. EU now buys more from opec. China gets a 35% discount and most likely pays in yuan and not dollars as beggers can't be choosers.

How are the Chinese going to get it before 2030? There is one small pipeline that goes to Vladivostok with an oil port. It has fairly small capacity. Most of Russia's oil pipelines go to Europe. One goes to an oil port in the Black Sea, but it's closed due to the war. Because a merchant ship got hit in the first week of the war, insurance on all merchant vessels in the war zone is suspended. As a result, nobody is loading oil at Russia's Black Sea oil port. If they were loading oil, it's an open question if the Turks would allow the oil to leave the Black Sea.

The Chinese could tap unlimited Russian oil if they built a pipeline across Siberia, which will take about 10 years to build.

People don't think about infrastructure until its lack gets in the way. Russia's core plan for their oil exports was to use it to subvert Europe and make them completely dependent on Russian oil. Now that Europe is hostile to taking Russian oil, that plan has completely blown up and there is no viable plan B because the infrastructure for any plan B needs to be built.
 
Well having principles sucks. Biden could do the opposite and sign nuke deal with Iran and remove any oil sanctions and say pump like mad.
Hell, just pull all our troops and air support out of the ME. It's costing us billions to protect them and we keep inciting the lunatic fringe to attack us for it. These oil monopolists are costing us our future in many ways.
 
As someone who works in offshore wind and electrical generation the push by a lot of governments to renewables is in my opinion, rushed.
There is no significant risk in an accelerated roll out of Renewables and Storage.

Gas can and should be used as a contingency generator to de-risk the move.

It idea of a contingency is, you hope not to need it.

For renewables and storage you need to use full toolkit:-
  • Generation - Onshore wind, Offshore Wind, Solar, Wave Tidal
  • Renewable overbuild - with hydrogen/ammonia production.
  • Hydrogen/ammonia powered generator.
  • Storage - Battery, Pumped Hydro and others..
  • Heat pumps - better insulation - more efficient electrical appliances.
The only mistake is coal and nuclear closing before adequate generation, hydrogen/ammonia production and storage are in place.

The transition can be done quickly and well if governments fully commit to a well though out plan..
 
As someone who works in offshore wind and electrical generation the push by a lot of governments to renewables is in my opinion, rushed.
Until they get a massive increase in interconnectors between nations in Europe at least (inc UK & Eire). 2020 renewables out produced fossil fuel electricity at around 43% of UK requirements. Unfortunately it is not reliable as an individual source locally (hence needing interconnection). Nuclear is a steady output but cannot easily be ramped up or down quickly to meet surges in demand, it provides the backbone of supply if you like. Gas turbines are much quicker to be adjusted but generally quite small output. Then of course in UK we have the famous “Eastenders” coffee break hydro generation where water is released from a dam at the top of a hill through turbines to power all the kettles after Eastenders or 1/2 time in the World Cup. This then gets pumped back up the hill overnight (on Octopus Go cheap rate🤣).
Basically renewables atm can only be part of the mix not the whole answer, until thing’s like tidal or wave generation becomes more viable.
The German government made a bit of a knee jerk reaction in shutting nuclear power off so quickly (again imo). Thereby leaving themselves open to Putin playing silly buggers with the gas supply. It would have been wiser with hindsight to draw down nuclear slowly as renewables became a more viable source. Not giving so much of the supply chain to Putin in the case of gas.
Mistakes have been made (probably continue to be made), however hopefully the EU, UK government’s will learn from this and diversify the mix better. This is of course until renewables become a much more viable source.

My hat off to you for opening your house to refugees I wish I was in a position to do so & the UK gov would drop the visa requirement. My wife (the Russian) has been collecting clothes and medical supples & is dropping them off tomorrow at a Ukraine charity collection point. It’s the best we can do for now.

 
Ukraine war: Poland offers all its MIG-29 fighter jets to US in plan to provide aircraft to Kyiv | World News | Sky News (45 min ago)


In a 3-party deal, Poland will 'donate' all its Mig-29 fighter jets at an U.S. airfield in Poland. The U.S. in turn donates the Migs to Ukraine, and provides F-16s to Poland to replace their donations.

Poland really got quite the deal on those Migs. They initially bought them from Germany for 1 Euro each when Germany was dumping the last of their East German hardware. Then Poland gets to trade up to F-16s for free.

I haven't been able to find out what modernization those Mig-29s have been through, but if they were modified to carry NATO weapons, that will be gold for the Ukrainians. If the Ukrainians can launch NATO munitions, they can wipe out Russian radar and leave them blind to the air war on the ground. That could be a game changer in the air.


The US has had a quid pro quo with those countries to manipulate oil prices when the US wants it since the 80s. It's a predictable deal and part of the horse trading of international politics. Unfortunately you have to make some disgusting deals sometimes.
 
There is no significant risk in an accelerated roll out of Renewables and Storage.

Gas can and should be used as a contingency generator to de-risk the move.

It idea of a contingency is, you hope not to need it.

For renewables and storage you need to use full toolkit:-
  • Generation - Onshore wind, Offshore Wind, Solar, Wave Tidal
  • Renewable overbuild - with hydrogen/ammonia production.
  • Hydrogen/ammonia powered generator.
  • Storage - Battery, Pumped Hydro and others..
  • Heat pumps - better insulation - more efficient electrical appliances.
The only mistake is coal and nuclear closing before adequate generation, hydrogen/ammonia production and storage are in place.

The transition can be done quickly and well if governments fully commit to a well though out plan..
Maybe however hydrogen/ammonia production is not currently in place. Battery storage isn’t either and for UK at least would be an issue as most would object to large scale storage facilities anywhere near population. It’s one of the hurdles we have to face unfortunately. I’m not saying any of it can’t be done just not that quickly (may be quicker now though)
The housing stock in UK is not (contrary to the govs spiel) suitable for heat pumps either air or ground. Most housing in the UK is not triple glazed nor sealed well enough even new builds ( Scandinavian countries are much better at this). The best a UK average house can hope for is 1:2 ratio power in : out, in winter more like 3:1 whereas Sweden it’s 1:3 or 1:4 becasue the houses are tripleglazed, hermetically sealed. Ours leak like sieves, especially the older Victorian (or older) properties, in a lot of cases they can’t even fit double glazing due to heritage laws.
Hydrogen production will be part of offshore wind farms at some point, it’s just not there yet, same as electrical storage.
I’ll have more in the morning best get some shuteye, to be up in 5hrs🤦‍♂️
 
Ukraine war: Poland offers all its MIG-29 fighter jets to US in plan to provide aircraft to Kyiv | World News | Sky News (45 min ago)


In a 3-party deal, Poland will 'donate' all its Mig-29 fighter jets at an U.S. airfield in Poland. The U.S. in turn donates the Migs to Ukraine, and provides F-16s to Poland to replace their donations.

Poland really got quite the deal on those Migs. They initially bought them from Germany for 1 Euro each when Germany was dumping the last of their East German hardware. Then Poland gets to trade up to F-16s for free.

 
Because Russian commanders are speaking on unencrypted devices ...what idiots, they are geo located and shot with drones.
That is because they shutdown the 3G/4G phone network to stop the locals posting videos and providing information.

I suppose they could get satellite phones, but that may take time, No new computer chips, can't import them, might not have local technology..
 
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That is because they shutdown the 3G/4G phone network to stop the locals posting videos and providing information.

I suppose they could get satellite phones, but that may take time, No new computer chips, can't import them, might not have local technology..
Yes, it is a lesson in how not to plan an invasion. Hey lets invade a western aligned country, we don't need secure communication capability. Oh hey lets have our field commanders use cell phones and talk in the clear. Oh hey our enemy, the dreaded nazi oppressor, is using drones...no problem we'll stay in our green trucks with engines on. They are hard to see on these cold snowy days and they won't have any idea if we're inside or not. Oh hey, turn the heat back on, I like warm vodka.