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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Aleksandr "Batka" Lukashenko is actually widely disliked in Belarus and most people seem to think the only reason he has not been overthrown is that Putin openly props him up.
Weird. Russia doesn't need justification for more brutality as their propaganda machine at home is working mighty well. I mean according to their TV, the Russians are liberating Russians/Ukrainians, feeding them, while killing nazis. And it's better to actually attack civilian infrastructure if you want to use it as propaganda and not actual useful targets that help the Ukrainians especially when you are having difficulties with logistics.
I have a feeling Putin will declare this as fake news or it's some kind of site "accident" as it does no favors to his sealed propaganda campaign in Russia. It's pretty embarrassing that this war they are "winning so hard with air superiority" can't even keep his own borders safe.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Ukraine officially denies they carried out the attack. May be a false flag.
Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Yep. Anyone remember Afghanistan? As soon as the US contractors left, the planes left in Afghanistan quickly became scrap metal because they simply have no effective means to maintain the planes themselves. The Afghan army quickly lost air power and the air force never played a significant role as a result in the later stages.
This also calls into question how a maintenance infrastructure can be set up in Ukraine in the first place (are we sending US contractors into an active warzone?) So I think all the talk about F16s and F15s remain pie in the sky. I think working things out to secretly send in MIG-29s remains the most viable option (and hopefully the request for American jets are smokescreens while this is happening behind the scenes).
The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
www.cnn.com
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
He didn't exactly say that (that Russia was not a threat at all), he said the following:The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
""When you were asked, 'What's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America,' you said 'Russia.' Not al Qaeda; you said Russia," Obama said. "And, the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back, because the Cold War's been over for 20 years.""
At the time, and with US still involved in Afghanistan, Russia really was not the biggest geopolitical threat. Even today, it's not (especially seeing how poorly their military performed and how big an impact sanctions were able to have). It's a big threat for Europe, but not necessarily for the US (which is why we can go all-in in terms of sanctions, while Europe has their hands tied). For the US, China may be the biggest one at the moment (only one that may go head to head in economy and in military).
That said, it is fair to say Obama underestimated the danger of Russia (as did a lot of people) and Romney was closer to the real threat they were.
The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
Pretend it didn’t happen like the Republican strategy?
The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
Yes, Romney is currently one of the four or five respectable Republicans in DC today. How is he regarded within the party? It has sadly become a cult of Trump.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Ruble is within a few percent of where it was in January. Exports are probably higher than a couple years ago, and imports are down.
Like Americans at the start of Covid, it's just panic buying. The Russian travel vlog girl someone posted a few days ago went through a huge mall. Western-branded stores were closed and prices were way up for some imported foods, but otherwise it was business as usual.
That's not how it works. Even with sanctions Russia is running a huge trade surplus.
Wishful thinking. They can buy most factory parts through intermediaries, or just buy copies directly from China. Taxes are an abstraction in a closed economy that runs a surplus.What happens when their citizens loses jobs due to Us firms pulling out? Well, they won’t have enough to pay taxes. What happens when a manufacturing line has parts that are broken and sanctions prevent the factories from getting those parts? Well, the entire line shuts down, workers are sent home. What happens when workers don’t get paid? They don’t pay their taxes… the Russian economy will function until their funds are nearly depleted, that’s when the real panic will begin. For now get your popcornready.
There will be disruptions and inconveniences, but local brands will fill much of the void. For that matter, what's to stop them from nationalizing and re-opening McDonald's and Coca-Cola?
navguy12
Active Member
You mean like Trump not viewing Putins Russia as a geopolitical threat?The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
Hard to say in the regions that the Russians have controlled since 2014. Those people have been subject to Russian propaganda and less news from the outside world, so they might be more brainwashed.
There are actual separatists that have been fighting in Donbas, but quite a few of the so called separatists have actually been Russians. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few were Wagner group guys.
I do think taking back those regions militarily even in a complete military collapse of Russia scenario would be more difficult. The parts of Ukraine that have been Ukrainian since 2014 that were taken in the last 6 weeks see themselves clearly as Ukrainian now and they enthusiastically welcome the Ukrainians when they return.
The regions that Russia stole probably have more of a mix of loyalties now. In a collapse of Russia's economy, the Crimea might be more interested in going back to Ukraine because Ukraine will be showing more stability. Who knows about the regions Russia has been fighting over for 8 years.
The reports of soldiers being sent to hospitals in Belerus with radiation poisoning are well reported from many credible sources. The reports that the first soldier has died is still unverified, but it isn't an outrageous story on the face of it. A bunch of people go to the hospital with radiation poisoning and at least one dies a few days later is not surprising. But the story is still unverified.
I haven't heard about Israelis specifically, but I have read that the volunteers are a mixed lot and the Ukrainians have sent some home because they were LARPers and not really trained soldiers. Some of the foreign volunteers are well trained veterans and they have been sent into combat.
I read one story a few days ago from an American reporter in Lviv who ran into a former American Marine who had been in combat for a few weeks, but while he was qualified to be there, his PTSD from being in Iraq and Afghanistan was haunting him and he was no longer fit to fight. The guy said the Russians had no imagination, they would keep trying the same thing over and over again and the Ukrainians would beat them every time. He said he used to envy the tankers in Iraq, but not anymore. He said tanks in this war were just targets and little more. The Russian tanks achieved nothing and got taken out right and left.
He said there was one Ukrainian in his unit who the Americans called "Maniac". He was the most mild mannered guy most of the time, but when he saw Russian vehicles he would grab an ATGM and attack with no regard to his safety. Then when the threat was gone, he would go back to his mild mannered self.
He spent a few weeks in a trench near Kyiv and ended up killing a lot of Russians. I believe he said Ukrainian losses were light.
The US vets are probably valued because they have real combat experience, but many of them also have PTSD and that may start to get in the way.
In 2012 the Russians were just starting to "modernize" their military. The bulk of their equipment was still Soviet cast offs that had been poorly maintained. They started modernizing in 2008 and the first deliveries of new equipment were just coming through in 2012. So in 2012 the Russians were not a serious threat outside their borders. By 2014 they had become a modest threat. Everyone underestimated the threat by 2022, but everyone also overestimated their actual combat ability. Their equipment and unit structure may be modernized, but they don't have the training to use it effectively.
Romney wasn't right in 2012, but he was prescient. Russia has become much more of a threat since 2012.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin's Invasion
The stream of anti-war letters to a lawmaker in St. Petersburg, Russia, has dried up. Some Russians who had criticized the Kremlin have turned into cheerleaders for the war. Those who publicly oppose it have found the word “traitor” scrawled on their apartment door. Five weeks into President...
After I read your post, I read the subsequent responses to it. Let me suggest you take a step back. It’s not about Republicans vs Democrats wrt the Russians, unless you want to focus on the Russian disinformation campaign which has been well documented in many places and also referenced in this thread. Then you need to pull the threads on the disinformation campaign against parties in other countries. Very clever strategy on the part of Russia to weaken its adversaries…which begs the question, why are you playing into it here? Perhaps you are well intentioned and just don’t realize it. To some extent we all fell victim to it. Not any more. If you are unfamiliar with it just click the google link below. They were masterful at playing off the “left” and the “right” against each other within both parties here and elsewhere.The Obama administration stated Russia was not a geopolitical threat and slammed Romney for saying it was. I wonder how Democrats feel about it now
Analysis: It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia
A decade ago, Mitt Romney went on CNN and made a statement that was widely perceived as a major mistake.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Not a surprise at all, basically what I was arguing about autocracies that have strong control of their media. It's not hard to make people believe the propaganda about a war in such a system (or at least make it so voices of dissent get squashed). In a democracy, voices of dissent are allowed to air and there is a correction that happens even if the initial information was found to be wrong (as it did in the Iraq war). This doesn't happen in autocracies (as such I doubt there are many people in Russia today that feel the annexation of Crimea back in 2014 was not justified).Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin's Invasion
The stream of anti-war letters to a lawmaker in St. Petersburg, Russia, has dried up. Some Russians who had criticized the Kremlin have turned into cheerleaders for the war. Those who publicly oppose it have found the word “traitor” scrawled on their apartment door. Five weeks into President...www.yahoo.com
Russia/Ukraine conflict
Of course, that is with the caveat it's hard to do a useful opinion poll in a country where people fear they may go to jail for expressing honest views (as per article it was mentioned this was done as a phone interview, and people may fear consequences talking to a stranger about this).
I did see an article highlighting this. Couldn’t remember where I saw it so I just googled it. This is paywalled, but I will see if I can find the one that wasn’t. Haaretz is one of the Israeli newspapers. In most cases these are Ukrainian emigres who previously served in the Israeli army.
There are varying opinions, but most experts think the sanctions should be quite devastating to the Russian economy.
Why that isn't happening is because some short term compromises and carve outs, e.g. some Russian banks still have access to SWIFT.
I have heard that the Russians are using effective short-term measures to support the Ruble, but they only have so much "Dry Powder".
Similarly some of the sanctions affect maintenance of existing oil wells and the build of new wells, aeroplane parts need to keep planes flying, parts for maintaining cars and new cars.
The problem with sanctions at the moment is leaks and compromises. Implement the sanctions properly, the war will end, and the sanctions can end, Do a half-hearted job on sanctions and the war will drag on.
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Iysum was captured by the Russians in the East.
No real update on the South with lots happening in the North.
Retreating Russians in the north were ambushed and Ukraine inflicted as much damage as they could on northern forces.
The Russian troops in the South/East are fresher and better supplied, ambushing supply routes will no be as effective.
Seems to me some of those northern troops were undernourished, suffering frostbite and poor morale, I don't think they can be thrown into the South/East without some rehab.
The defeat of the Russians in the north is so comprehensive that Ukraine must be comfortable moving some of the better troops to the South / East.
Russia continues to slowly soften their negotiating position. If they understood the need to withdraw from the North then the understand how the war is going so far, how much longer it could go for and the losses they will probably take.
Refer to my post above about the Russian economy.
In part the Russians could be waiting for Maruipol to fall, so they can claim to have defeated the Azov regiment, i.e. the Nazis as they view them,
IMO Russia fighting on is about short term objectives to strengthen there negotiating position, or to create better optics at home,
I would not be surprised by a deal in the next few days, equally I would not be surprised by the war dragging on for months with no deal.
Better sanctions will accelerate a deal, giving Ukraine the right weapons to counter Russian planes and missiles will accelerate a deal.
No real update on the South with lots happening in the North.
Retreating Russians in the north were ambushed and Ukraine inflicted as much damage as they could on northern forces.
The Russian troops in the South/East are fresher and better supplied, ambushing supply routes will no be as effective.
Seems to me some of those northern troops were undernourished, suffering frostbite and poor morale, I don't think they can be thrown into the South/East without some rehab.
The defeat of the Russians in the north is so comprehensive that Ukraine must be comfortable moving some of the better troops to the South / East.
Russia continues to slowly soften their negotiating position. If they understood the need to withdraw from the North then the understand how the war is going so far, how much longer it could go for and the losses they will probably take.
Refer to my post above about the Russian economy.
In part the Russians could be waiting for Maruipol to fall, so they can claim to have defeated the Azov regiment, i.e. the Nazis as they view them,
IMO Russia fighting on is about short term objectives to strengthen there negotiating position, or to create better optics at home,
I would not be surprised by a deal in the next few days, equally I would not be surprised by the war dragging on for months with no deal.
Better sanctions will accelerate a deal, giving Ukraine the right weapons to counter Russian planes and missiles will accelerate a deal.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Russian inflation will be in for a huge surprise next year, their government is only expecting 5.5 inflation 
, this looks to me like wishful thinking and reminds me of their reporting of low troop loss:
www.yahoo.com
In 2022, inflation is expected to accelerate to 23.7%, the poll showed, far above Russia's 4% target. A similar poll in late January predicted 2022 inflation at 5.5%.
Reuters suspended its February poll on Russia's main economic indicators due to uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The economy is on track to shrink by 7.3% this year, the poll showed, marking a shift in market expectations for 2.5% growth in the January poll.
"Russia plunged into economic and financial turmoil this month," Capital Economics said, predicting a deeper 12% economic contraction this year.
, this looks to me like wishful thinking and reminds me of their reporting of low troop loss:
Russia to live through highest inflation since 1999- Reuters poll
Economic expectations have deteriorated drastically in the past few weeks as Russia took a hit from unprecedented Western sanctions designed to punish Moscow for what it calls "a special military operation" in Ukraine, which started on Feb. 24. The average of 15 analysts polled in late March...
In 2022, inflation is expected to accelerate to 23.7%, the poll showed, far above Russia's 4% target. A similar poll in late January predicted 2022 inflation at 5.5%.
Reuters suspended its February poll on Russia's main economic indicators due to uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The economy is on track to shrink by 7.3% this year, the poll showed, marking a shift in market expectations for 2.5% growth in the January poll.
"Russia plunged into economic and financial turmoil this month," Capital Economics said, predicting a deeper 12% economic contraction this year.
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