Seems boxed in range $175-$182.50 (SpotGEX shows MM buy against market if heads to $175 and sell against market into $180).
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Seems boxed in range $175-$182.50 (SpotGEX shows MM buy against market if heads to $175 and sell against market into $180).
bmd00
Member
Another day with early morning hesitation. Today is likely no different than 3/7. It is not significant enough to justify a bottom yet. If a bottom was in we would not see the stock selloff so strongly in the last half of the first hour. I think it is extremely important to watch how the 1hr chart closes before jumping to conclusions, especially the 1st hour of the day. Intra-hour price action can change rather quickly and can be a lot of unnecessary noise
Agree. Unfortunately par for the course. Been that way for a long time. TSLA can’t hold its gains.
sign that you might be emotionally compromised.
This is what they want you to feel. Accustomed to lower prices and weakness, so that at first sight of strength you overcompensate for this with a renewed FOMO.
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bmd00
Member
There are many similarities from 1/19 - 1/24 compared to the last few days (3/6 - 3/11). Most likely, the recent price action is ultimately setting up for another strong push lower, like 1/25.
STC CC's from opening highs ~$182 at lows just now for a nice scalp to start the week. TSLA often most weak around 11:30-12:00 so I take advantage of that.
BTO +C180 3/15 @2.98
BTO +C180 3/15 @2.98
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I think Jim can confirmed that TSLA has been doing the same dances for months now. Morning pump, then pullback, then flat or pump again.
Same routine. Unless it's a dump day.
Same routine. Unless it's a dump day.
Actual earnings still matter.Perhaps we get both. A pump beyond $200 approaching ER and then Musk and Team crashed the SP with their gloomy and doom ER reports. The biggest issue during ER is not the actual earning but how the messages are being conveyed.
For an M7 company their earning Presentation and Showmanship left a lots to desired.
Perhaps Fred strategy is to buy super way out of the money Puts aiming for 115 then reverse with another way out of the money Call. Im still confused as none of the option training focus on making money by just going Long, without a combination of Selling. Hidden Holy grail I say
They are projecting $1.5 EPS for 2024. Which mean TSLA is trading at 118 forward PE.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I wunner if this Feb. CPI report will be the thing that makes everything different.
FWIW: TSLA's Dealer Deltas have been receding from negative (bullish for the market) to the positive (bearish for the market). If it grows it could indicate more downside expected ahead.
We have yet to see CPI numbers reflect the Truflation numbers that showed a material drop below the 2% mark a couple months back. Over the past 3 years or so, Truflation's data have been pretty spot on in terms of the rise and the fall of inflation. The only thing that is a question mark is when the official CPI numbers start to reflect it. It can be many months lag between the two.
If I had to guess, it'll be March's CPI print that will show the huge drop in inflation. But we're getting close enough that Feb's could have it or part of it.
Canaccord Genuity's @gianarikas on $TSLA:
"I think we're at a period of time where the worries likely exceed the reality; In the near term, we think we may have overcorrected to the downside."
"I think we're at a period of time where the worries likely exceed the reality; In the near term, we think we may have overcorrected to the downside."
The fed Nowcast model suggests CPI will be in line with expectations tomorrow, with the headline number at 3.1% and core at 3.7%.
If the numbers come in at that, then Fed's not going to lower rates in March and I would expect more of a market sell off.
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Nice to see TSLA holding in upper range near the $180 GEX magnet vs. hovering near or taking out lows again as it often does:
Also, IV is up for a change, from 44-46 avg. last week to 54-56 today.
Also, IV is up for a change, from 44-46 avg. last week to 54-56 today.
When you write weekly calls backed by LEAP Cs like these, are those essentially spreads? What would be your risk management in case the SP shoots up short term? I am thinking about writing against a few LEAP Cs I have, but I have read the warnings on spreads here and would like to understand how it goes before dipping my toes in. Appreciate your thoughts.
SpotGEX implies we're freed to move to $185 area if the market decides to go there, before they need to sell into it:
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