Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

For what it's worth, shares on Schwab are currently considered "Hard to Borrow":

View attachment 99235

Why borrow when you can buy at such reasonable price? ;-)

 

[uselesslogin]

• Signature delivery now mid/late January

#1

So one thing for those who haven't bothered to click on that thread should note is the 2 posters reporting they heard January delivery are both presumed lurkers who are posting for the first time. So, until someone with a longer post history posts a similar update skepticism may be in order. Although to me right now Jan sounds about right lol. I look forward to the day they are flying off the line.

 

[FluxCap]

So one thing for those who haven't bothered to click on that thread should note is the 2 posters reporting they heard January delivery are both presumed lurkers who are posting for the first time. So, until someone with a longer post history posts a similar update skepticism may be in order. Although to me right now Jan sounds about right lol. I look forward to the day they are flying off the line.

If significant Model X deliveries are pushed to January, I can't see our current share price holding for very long. I question the validity of first-time posters too, but they are not implausible.

 

[Lump]

So one thing for those who haven't bothered to click on that thread should note is the 2 posters reporting they heard January delivery are both presumed lurkers who are posting for the first time. So, until someone with a longer post history posts a similar update skepticism may be in order. Although to me right now Jan sounds about right lol. I look forward to the day they are flying off the line.

If the same posters said delivery's were Dec.1 how high would the level of skepticism be?

Anyways... #12

 

[FluxCap]

If the same posters said delivery's were Dec.1 how high would the level of skepticism be?

Anyways... #12

Yeah, that looks legit. Crap.

 

[maoing]

have your guys recently checked your local store about the timing of model X test drive and demo car availability? I was first told by end of 2015 a few weeks ago, and then became spring 2016 in last weekend. It could be glitch from just one store, so welcome to get more information from rest of your guys.

 

[winfield100]

@ev-enthusiast: Elon has ruled out German manufacturers in the same statement, if I remember correctly. My bet is on Aston Martin.

Back to short-term price movements: TSLA is up about 0.7% in Germany despite currency values unchanged (-0.01% atm).

Fair weather at German (+0.68%) and European stock exchange (+0.47%), too.

any further info/speculation on if/when supercharger partner? has it gone quiet?

 

[Scott Ales]

Yeah, that looks legit. Crap.

Hold on a second.

I ordered a Model S a week ago Friday and last week made the decision to extend the order to a January delivery. Why? Because I didn't want to take delivery on December 15th of a 2015 year model car. Remember, Tesla delivers 2015 cars during 2015. Not like all other manufacturers making cars 1-1 1/2 years earlier than the calendar date! So if anyone ordering decides they want a 2016 they can defer it till then.

With all other companies there are incentives in place for the previous model year clear out. Tesla thus far has avoided (and I hope they continue) the incentives program to cinch the deal on selling one year old cars just weeks away from the next year.

 

[Irishjugg]

The recent onslaught of negative article may have something to do with hedge fund's last ditch effort to manipulate prices. (Buying journalist requires human interaction which HFTs cannot do) As their underperformance gets larger per year to this year's supposed worst performanc one can only expect this to increase till December as Hedgies try to find the quickest way to make money. Which, in market terms, means shorting.

One has to begin to wonder, if hedge funds have become the dumb mone as it is the one group that underperformed the most, who exactly is taking the shirt from hedge funds? I know they've been feeding me (and two others indirectly through my tax) since TSLA ipo'd, but my lucky overprrformance is not the norm.Algorithms mainly do neutral trades so it must be another group hat the media has not found. Who took money inadvertently from the dumb money group of hedgies. What is this grouo and what is their edge?

Probably buy and holders

 

[uselesslogin]

If the same posters said delivery's were Dec.1 how high would the level of skepticism be?

Anyways... #12

Non-existent, of course.

I'm tired of negative posts being correct most of the time.

 

[pGo]

Hold on a second.

I ordered a Model S a week ago Friday and last week made the decision to extend the order to a January delivery. Why? Because I didn't want to take delivery on December 15th of a 2015 year model car. Remember, Tesla delivers 2015 cars during 2015. Not like all other manufacturers making cars 1-1 1/2 years earlier than the calendar date! So if anyone ordering decides they want a 2016 they can defer it till then.

With all other companies there are incentives in place for the previous model year clear out. Tesla thus far has avoided (and I hope they continue) the incentives program to cinch the deal on selling one year old cars just weeks away from the next year.

MX VIN assignment already shows it as a 2016 model.

 

[Curt Renz]

Probably buy and holders

Yes indeed. As more and more people buy Tesla cars, a great many of them become so pleased with their purchases that they become strong long term TSLA shareholders. Short selling hedge fund FUD slingers find it difficult to to scare them away.

 

[maoing]

Is that true for all the MX VIN assignments including bonnie's #2?

MX VIN assignment already shows it as a 2016 model.

 

[MitchJi]

have your guys recently checked your local store about the timing of model X test drive and demo car availability? I was first told by end of 2015 a few weeks ago, and then became spring 2016 in last weekend. It could be glitch from just one store, so welcome to get more information from rest of your guys.

I called right after the launch and this morning. Same answer, end of 2015 or early 2016.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Why the move up today?

 

[techmaven]

Why the move up today?

No one can reliably tell you the answer to that. Many can guess though.

My take is that Tesla's autopilot functionality has impressed folks and that it has stimulated demand, including the Model S. So things aren't as dire as some thought. Plus there was some news about people expecting to get their signature X's in 2015 over the weekend.

However, the news about signature Model X's in the < 1,000 range potentially pushed to January isn't going to be good. And that news hasn't really hit the street yet. I'm always surprised by how slow or how fast the "street" gets things. Sometimes there is a delay that I really don't expect.

When Tesla showed the Model X and it became apparent that they aren't ramping deliveries right afterwards in early Q4, a big question on my mind is whether or not Tesla will use the new production line to built the S. That they could potentially even push the X by 6 months and instead, build S's and still make their annual target. Two issues with that. The first issue is whether there enough demand for the S to go from 1,000/week to 1,600 or 1,800 a week for the S? Does autopilot and the referral program get them there? The other issue is can they build that many S's, both from using the new production line and from a parts perspective.

We simply don't know. It doesn't appear that Tesla is particularly stressed over this, as I would expect something different from the company if they were really stressed. Further, a miss is likely already baked into the stock price - the question is how big of a miss is baked into the price and how much long term credibility has been damaged by Tesla and Tesla executives over this issue and others. That directly affects the price multiple.

 

[pGo]

Is that true for all the MX VIN assignments including bonnie's #2?

I don't know about bonnie's but others have pointed that the VIN they got was for 2016. Plus, founders VINs already are 2016s.

 

[Scott Ales]

MX VIN assignment already shows it as a 2016 model.

If there are any assignments showing 2015 you can expect them to deliver this year. Unless Tesla changes just for this circumstance, any 2016 year model assignments will not come this year. It should not be a surprise they go into 2016.

 

[dc_h]

If there are any assignments showing 2015 you can expect them to deliver this year. Unless Tesla changes just for this circumstance, any 2016 year model assignments will not come this year. It should not be a surprise they go into 2016.

It has been previously noted that the first 6 founders cars were VIN'd as 2016. I do not think 2016 VIN means 2016 delivery.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

However, the news about signature Model X's in the < 1,000 range potentially pushed to January isn't going to be good. And that news hasn't really hit the street yet. I'm always surprised by how slow or how fast the "street" gets things. Sometimes there is a delay that I really don't expect.

It doesn't appear that Tesla is particularly stressed over this, as I would expect something different from the company if they were really stressed. Further, a miss is likely already baked into the stock price - the question is how big of a miss is baked into the price and how much long term credibility has been damaged by Tesla and Tesla executives over this issue and others. That directly affects the price multiple.

I fully expect pandemonium if the Model X ramp is pushed out yet again, and Tesla either lowers or fails to meet guidance.

This should have plenty of entertainment value :biggrin:. It also presents a possible good opportunity to buy in, as panicked people will sell at the exact wrong time to people willing to invest in TSLA for the long-haul (to Model 3 and beyond).