Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mejojo]

You ain't seen nothing yet! #donteverfallinlovewithastock

It is so very sad to see a man with a broken heart. #shewasntmeantoyou

I'm holding out hope you are just playing both sides....pumping to 265 then depressing to 200...... #iminlovewithmycar

 

[hershey101]

More articles on SA regarding Q3 estimates:
Predictions For The Q3 2015 Tesla Earnings Report - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Looked fairly reasonable conservative estimate for me.. What's the probability we miss expectations on EPS and they lower year-end guidance? I think that's enough to hit 180.

 

[FredTMC]

More articles on SA regarding Q3 estimates:
Predictions For The Q3 2015 Tesla Earnings Report - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Looked fairly reasonable conservative estimate for me.. What's the probability we miss expectations on EPS and they lower year-end guidance? I think that's enough to hit 180.

Does author mean Q4? (Another reason why I gave up reading anything on SA a long time ago)

 

[mrdoubleb]

Man, this thread is more bi-polar than ever! So if much of Model X Sig production slips to Q1, that is not brilliant news, but certainly not the end of the world. Ever since Tesla modified 2015 guidance to 50k cars, it was clear X is not going to be a significant part of that. Whether it`s 1400 Sigs like their earlier internal goals suggested, or 500-700 like we are guessing today, still means they need around 49000 Model S.

In Q2 they have guided for flat deliveries in Q3, so I really don`t understand those folks who "knew 2015 will be a miss as soon as Tesla published Q3 delivery numbers". That part actually went according to plan. We may still see a miss in 2015 if S production can't or won't be ramped enough, but it mainly just comes down to this: when they announced the revised target for the year, was X a significant chunk (e.g. 5k) of that, or was that move from 50-55k to 50k an indication of "we`ll make 49-50k Model S and whatever X we manage to get out will be the icing on the cake". I suspect the latter, so if we have a miss it will be by the hundreds, not the thousands.

 

[Vger]

This story of a report by Baird's Ben Kallo sums up my near-term expectations. For those of us long-termers, it is likely to be a trying period into next year:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - This Tesla Analyst Is Waiting Until 2016 For Catalysts | Benzinga

I imagine this is a major factor in reversing the stock again today.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Does author mean Q4? (Another reason why I gave up reading anything on SA a long time ago)

Well this is our good friend Paulo Santos.

 

[Cattledog]

The first Model S deliveries happened over the summer though, if I remember correctly. Model X started at the end of September. So relatively speaking, i think it is the same.

For Model S, First 10 Founders were in the June 20s, 2012. Remaining Founders happened by about the end of July. Earliest Sigs were late July or early August, they were still delivering Sigs under #100 into mid-September, delivered about 2,500 total, Sigs and Production, by the end of 2012. So we could be on an equivalent ramp even though we'd heard a steeper one.

 

[SBenson]

Man, this thread is more bi-polar than ever! So if much of Model X Sig production slips to Q1, that is not brilliant news, but certainly not the end of the world. Ever since Tesla modified 2015 guidance to 50k cars, it was clear X is not going to be a significant part of that. Whether it`s 1400 Sigs like their earlier internal goals suggested, or 500-700 like we are guessing today, still means they need around 49000 Model S.

In Q2 they have guided for flat deliveries in Q3, so I really don`t understand those folks who "knew 2015 will be a miss as soon as Tesla published Q3 delivery numbers". That part actually went according to plan. We may still see a miss in 2015 if S production can't or won't be ramped enough, but it mainly just comes down to this: when they announced the revised target for the year, was X a significant chunk (e.g. 5k) of that, or was that move from 50-55k to 50k an indication of "we`ll make 49-50k Model S and whatever X we manage to get out will be the icing on the cake". I suspect the latter, so if we have a miss it will be by the hundreds, not the thousands.

That was me. No, that part didn't go per the plan. At least not in the outside investor perspective. I was expecting a beat in Q3 deliveries. I was hoping that Q3 delivery guidance was sandbagged. So the beat will ensure the year's guidance was my hope. The beat didn't happen.

On a related note, both Q1, Q2 deliveries were a significant beat on guidance. The stock went up heavy both times.

Q3 failed to deliver a beat.

 

[Drax7]

Man, this thread is more bi-polar than ever! So if much of Model X Sig production slips to Q1, that is not brilliant news, but certainly not the end of the world. Ever since Tesla modified 2015 guidance to 50k cars, it was clear X is not going to be a significant part of that. Whether it`s 1400 Sigs like their earlier internal goals suggested, or 500-700 like we are guessing today, still means they need around 49000 Model S.

In Q2 they have guided for flat deliveries in Q3, so I really don`t understand those folks who "knew 2015 will be a miss as soon as Tesla published Q3 delivery numbers". That part actually went according to plan. We may still see a miss in 2015 if S production can't or won't be ramped enough, but it mainly just comes down to this: when they announced the revised target for the year, was X a significant chunk (e.g. 5k) of that, or was that move from 50-55k to 50k an indication of "we`ll make 49-50k Model S and whatever X we manage to get out will be the icing on the cake". I suspect the latter, so if we have a miss it will be by the hundreds, not the thousands.

This explanation if accurate would explain elon's demeanor in recent interviews.

 

[FredTMC]

Well this is our good friend Paulo Santos.

oh Gawd. if that's case, if any of you have any affinity for Tesla Motors please don't click it. AKA "don't feed the Bears"

 

[doggusfluffy]

Jeffrey Katzenberg in Life-Threatening Tesla Accident, a Miracle He Survives - SFGate

The car was “totaled,” according to the individual, adding that it was a “miracle” that Katzenberg walked away with his right wrist and arm shattered and nothing further. The other car is believed to be at fault, apparently having not seen the Tesla.

 

[mrdoubleb]

oh Gawd. if that's case, if any of you have any affinity for Tesla Motors please don't click it. AKA "don't feed the Bears"

Yeah, I took one for the team, Fred. Normally I delete the emails I get from SA when they list his name as the author, but I clicked this one to see what the bear of bears thinks of 2015. FYI, he thinks 2015 totals will be 46,500.

 

[Curt Renz]

Hey Ben Kallo. You didn't say anything that anyone doesn't already know.

I suspect that Ford (F -4.8%) missing earnings estimates is a bigger factor than Kallo repeating essentially what he has already said or Santos dishing out more FUD. Ford is dragging down the entire auto sector today.

 

[FredTMC]

Yeah, I took one for the team, Fred. Normally I delete the emails I get from SA when they list his name as the author, but I clicked this one top see what the bear of bears thinks of 2015. FYI, he thinks 2015 totals will be 46,500.

Thx man. We will allow that. Lol. Better that you go look and report back the bear assessment.

 

[mrdoubleb]

That was me. No, that part didn't go per the plan. At least not in the outside investor perspective. I was expecting a beat in Q3 deliveries. I was hoping that Q3 delivery guidance was sandbagged. So the beat will ensure the year's guidance was my hope. The beat didn't happen.

On a related note, both Q1, Q2 deliveries were a significant beat on guidance. The stock went up heavy both times.

Q3 failed to deliver a beat.

I am sorry, but this makes no sense. The company guides for 11,500 deliveries. They deliver 11,500. You were hoping they would deliver a beat, ergo they failed. Makes no sense. Isn`t it more correct, that you guessed wrong?

 

[maoing]

Listen to Paulo Santos's opinion. At least I benefit a lot from his call of shorting TSLA right after Model X release. Btw, I didn't short, but I adjusted my position accordingly.

More articles on SA regarding Q3 estimates:
Predictions For The Q3 2015 Tesla Earnings Report - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Looked fairly reasonable conservative estimate for me.. What's the probability we miss expectations on EPS and they lower year-end guidance? I think that's enough to hit 180.

 

[SBenson]

I am sorry, but this makes no sense. The company guides for 11,500 deliveries. They deliver 11,500. You were hoping they would deliver a beat, ergo they failed. Makes no sense. Isn`t it more correct, that you guessed wrong?

See it in the context of what they needed to do in Q3 to make the years guidance. Then you will see they fell short.

 

[FredTMC]

I suspect that Ford (F -4.8%) missing earnings estimates is a bigger factor than Kallo repeating essentially what he has already said or Santos dishing out more FUD. Ford is dragging down the entire auto sector today.

no doubt Curt. Ford certainly doesn't help.

 

[madodel]

With apologies for the delay, I've moved a set of posts to Snippiness.

We are here to talk about TSLA, not about others who post on this forum. Please don't attribute motives to people.

Also, don't feel compelled to engage everyone. Sometimes rebutting a falsity actually enhances its credibility; sometimes it's better just to let uninformed comments go. In short: don't feed the trolls.

Jeffery Katzenberg in car accident in a tesla, and thanks Elon for saving his life.

Jeffery should have been driving a super reliable honda civic as per Consumer reports
and saved himself all sorts of repair issues.

But he could have bought 3 KIAs for what he paid for that Tesla. Then he'd have two spares. Now he has to wait for Tesla to build a replacement. Of course his spare KIAs would just go into his estate.

 

[dalalsid]

I am sorry, but this makes no sense. The company guides for 11,500 deliveries. They deliver 11,500. You were hoping they would deliver a beat, ergo they failed. Makes no sense. Isn`t it more correct, that you guessed wrong?

What is puzzling is that the company gave the 50k yearly guidance too at the same time. So a beat was expected unless they plan on some serious Model S deliveries in Q4. And Q4 is always a bad time for that with holidays, weather etc. But if they manage to do that in Q4 it will silence the bears for some time.