Krugerrand
Meow
Only if they don't meet guidance. What if they do? Will you have been wrong in that context?
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Only if they don't meet guidance. What if they do? Will you have been wrong in that context?
on the LG Chem negotiations: It seems like Tesla is not only production-constrained, but (still/again) battery supply-constrained... maoing, thoughts?
edit: tbh, forgot that this might be issue #1 actually. Remember that there's ~50,000 customers waiting for their powerwalls/-packs and Tesla promised to start deliveries this summer... Tesla literally could sell every single battery they can get their hands on, folks.
edit: tbh, forgot that this might be issue #1 actually. Remember that there's ~50,000 customers waiting for their powerwalls/-packs and Tesla promised to start deliveries this summer... Tesla literally could sell every single battery they can get their hands on, folks.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Here's the article. Nice!
Electric-car batteries: LG Chem, Tesla tie-up could jolt Panasonic- Nikkei Asian Review
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I'd rather enjoy my new car sooner and take the $7500 fed tax credit for 2015 rather than wait a whole year.
Also, Tesla's are more about what features they have (autopilot, etc) rather than what year they are (IMO). Finally, there's no new design refresh for Model S delivered in Jan. it's the same car as a December car.
Electric-car batteries: LG Chem, Tesla tie-up could jolt Panasonic- Nikkei Asian Review
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I'd rather enjoy my new car sooner and take the $7500 fed tax credit for 2015 rather than wait a whole year.
Also, Tesla's are more about what features they have (autopilot, etc) rather than what year they are (IMO). Finally, there's no new design refresh for Model S delivered in Jan. it's the same car as a December car.
thanks! But interestingly, it has some quite stupid assumption in it, namely, that it was a zero-sum game. Tesla surely won't replace Panasonic with LG Chem. It's just that currently Panasonic obviously is not able to supply ENOUGH batteries. It could well be that LG Chem is also competing on the price front...plus, it's always good to diversify dependencies on suppliers.
Quote from the article:
"This could deal a major blow to the Japanese electronics giant, which positions the automotive business as a growth pillar, because now it will be exposed to competition in serving a key customer."
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Agreed. Panasonic I'm sure understands and respects the concept of "second source" (e.g. Risk mitigation, naural disasters, etc). Tesla would be foolish not to seek other sources.
Tesla does not have model years in the manner of other American manufacturers. Production is continuously upgraded, not just once a year. Model S's have essentially looked the same since they were first produced in mid-2012, but their innards have been continuously improved. Of course cars already delivered are improved through software updates. The model year implied in a Model S VIN is the year the car was actually produced.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah, I remember that. Maybe they didn't get to terms on some aspect of the agreement.
Scott Ales
Member
I understand this and agree with their choice. But it doesn't provide for any adjustment for this last month delivery which does have an impact for the next few years when one is finished with the car. What troubles me the most is the point that was shared earlier that the 6 Founders editions are 2016 year models. If this is true then Tesla deviated from the policy. That's tricky if you're a Model S buyer taking delivery of a 2015 2 months later but still in December of 2015!
Nobody buys a used car without asking what year it is first.
Wrt to the LG supplier possibility, remember that the Tesla PowerWall includes a NCM variant... the daily cycler. It might be that LG can supply cells for that product at a great price and the deal has zero impact on Tesla or Panasonic's automotive side, or even the PowerPack version.
Ok, trying to get this thread back on track..Where do we go from here? The last 3 days we have been pretty range-bound. I have no idea what to think at this point in terms of price movement the rest of this week.. We seem pretty much broken technically speaking. For now I'll be happy with $210 going into earnings. If that happens we can see an initial selloff down to $180 in the AH and then as calmer minds prevail a return to somewhat of an uptrend during the 2nd half of next week... If we move up, I'll definitely sell some things going into earnings.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think Scott's reasoning is that there is a substantial resale value difference between model years.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Krugerrand
Meow
Old school thinking. When people shop for a used Tesla they are asking questions like; Which battery? Performance package? AP hardware? Insane/Ludicrous mode? How much battery degradation? Even which battery pack A/E - for Supercharging purposes? They aren't asking what 'year'.
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But we know there isn't. It's about features on the car, battery size and the like and those types of things simply aren't year specific.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Baring any macro influence, it seems we will stay around $210 till earnings. Seems like support at $210
I think Q3 ER comes down to Q4 guidance. If tesla reaffirms then stock will go higher.
Q3 top and bottom line are minor factors. Guidance is major factor IMO
They shouldn't in the case of Tesla and many German brands. The blue book would undoubtedly take the full VIN into account along with options, mileage and remaining warranty. If traded back to Tesla, there would be no misunderstandings at all. It shouldn't be a problem for competing dealerships either. The price would actually be set by the open market, and any disparities would be smoothed out by those willing to deal in arbitrage.
And my point is that the Model S does not have model years. When other manufacturers introduce cars labeled with a new model year, there are usually significant improvements or design changes. That is not the case with Tesla. A Model S produced in late December is not likely any different than one produced in early January, unless through sheer coincidence an improvement was implemented between those dates. Tesla improvements are implemented continuously rather than annually. The used car market should be able to understand and properly deal with this.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Why do you think $180? Most recently in August, it had a quick spike down (then up) to $195. This was during the dramatic China market scare BS that no one in the market seems concerned about anymore.
That's what I was thinking. the 7 kWh powerwall cells could be supplied by LG
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