Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

They shouldn't in the case of Tesla and many German brands. The blue book would undoubtedly take the full VIN into account along with options, mileage and remaining warranty. If traded back to Tesla, there would be no misunderstandings at all. It shouldn't be a problem for competing dealerships either. The price would actually be set by the open market, and any disparities would be smoothed out by those willing to deal in arbitrage.



And my point is that the Model S does not have model years. When other manufacturers introduce cars labeled with a new model year, there are usually significant improvements or design changes. That is not the case with Tesla. A Model S produced in late December is not likely any different than one produced in early January, unless through sheer coincidence an improvement was implemented between those dates. Tesla improvements are implemented continuously rather than annually. The used car market should be able to understand and deal with this.

Yes, they SHOULD! These are my people I'm afraid to admit for the past 30 years. I have 300 luxury and exotic dealers who pay me a fee monthly to trade privately on our site. They all think I am a Tesla fanatic and they are right! But just because we present solid arguments or concepts won't make them accept it. They are not and will not be wired to accept this concept for 5-10 years at least. And you're kidding yourself if you think anyone but Tesla in the re-marketing part of the industry accepts it either. Please don't mistake my comments for disagreeing with your thought process. It's just the reality of this and so many other aspects of Tesla will take a very long time to prove out.

I'm simply suggesting to be considerate of this issue for Tesla for the next few years. If you still don't believe me, go to any automotive valuation website and check the prices from 2012,13,14 and 15 for a used Tesla. You won't like it. This is the current standard for all used buyers. They don't know any different. Can't blame them for not being educated. Where would they have been taught this concept when considering a used Tesla?

 

[hershey101]

Why do you think $180? Most recently in August, it had a quick spike down (then up) to $195. This was during the dramatic China market scare BS that no one in the market seems concerned about anymore.

180 is the key support that was once a technical resistance point. I don't see an intraday support of $195 due to general market volatility as being strong enough to hold in a sell-off.
Below 180, I think there is way too much buying pressure to stay... Smart money buys at lows, and in high volumes. On an aside, the E/S ratio is at its near lows currently and $180 would be a floor on that too.

 

[dha]

180 is the key support that was once a technical resistance point. I don't see an intraday support of $195 due to general market volatility as being strong enough to hold in a sell-off.

General market volatility has largely subsided. VIX is back down to ~15 and and SPY has quietly crossed the 200 day MA which is proving to be support right now. Markets are now positive for the year and SPY is only 3.5% off all-time high. Investors who bought this latest dip while alarmist headlines were at fever pitch have done very well. Surprise surprise.

 

[madodel]

I was lucky enough to have a factory tour after the MX event as someone's guest.

Tour was great. I've been before. Very insightful.

It's my view that tesla will hit Q4 guidance.

Is that based on Model S sales? I called Tesla today and still no word on when I will be getting a call about delivery of my Model X Sig. From what I have read, all the interest generated by the Model X has translated into interest in the Model S, mostly because that is what people can test drive, see options for and actually buy without waiting a year for delivery. I'm expecting them to sell a boatload of these S's and at least meet or exceed the 50,000 mark. If they hit 55,000 that would be nice as I just doubled my TSLA position a week ago. I am very long TSLA.

 

[FredTMC]

Is that based on Model S sales? I called Tesla today and still no word on when I will be getting a call about delivery of my Model X Sig. From what I have read, all the interest generated by the Model X has translated into interest in the Model S, mostly because that is what people can test drive, see options for and actually buy without waiting a year for delivery. I'm expecting them to sell a boatload of these S's and at least meet or exceed the 50,000 mark. If they hit 55,000 that would be nice as I just doubled my TSLA position a week ago. I am very long TSLA.

Yes

 

[uselesslogin]

So, another Model X Founders delivery:
NVIDIA on Twitter:

 

[RobStark]

So, another Model X Founders delivery:
NVIDIA on Twitter:

Electric Blue is my favorite color after Pearl White.

 

[sub]

Sig #2 is expecting a mid Nov delivery as stated in Model X forum today based on her communications with Tesla. That is good news but unfortunately doesn't tell us anything about ramp.

 

[FredTMC]

Sig #2 is expecting a mid Nov delivery as stated in Model X forum today based on her communications with Tesla. That is good news but unfortunately doesn't tell us anything about ramp.

thx! Link? Can't find it...

yep, impossible to judge ramp at this point, but Sig 2 getting a delivery date is a start

 

[RyanT]

Sig #2 is expecting a mid Nov delivery as stated in Model X forum today based on her communications with Tesla. That is good news but unfortunately doesn't tell us anything about ramp.

Good enough for me, they must be starting production. Good to see them in the wild.

 

[Crowded Mind]

thx! Link? Can't find it...

yep, impossible to judge ramp at this point, but Sig 2 getting a delivery date is a start

Here is the quote from Bonnie. She has not received an official delivery date yet.

Can't wait for the November 3rd shareholder call. I think we should all take guesses as to what excuses Elon will be giving for claiming the Model X was "delivered" at the end of Q3 when only six hand-built vehicles were given to insiders to beta test and not one single Model X has been delivered since...

Honestly, I don't know where stuff like this is coming from. There are prob about 30+ Founders cars and, to the best of my knowledge, those deliveries have been happening. I get regular updates on the status of my X.

When I have a firm date, I'll post it - but I expect a November delivery. The Sigs that have been notified that it will be January are likely further back in the line and/or taking delivery that requires transport out-of-state.

(Hope it's ok that I've cross-quoted you, Bonnie!)

 

[mdemetri]

thx! Link? Can't find it...

yep, impossible to judge ramp at this point, but Sig 2 getting a delivery date is a start

Not sure about that, the only quote from Bonnie I could find regarding her Model X today was that she still did not have a delivery data, but is 'expecting' a mid-novemebr delivery.

See post 66 in Signature delivery now mid/late January - Page 7

 

[pGo]

Sig #2 is expecting a mid Nov delivery as stated in Model X forum today based on her communications with Tesla. That is good news but unfortunately doesn't tell us anything about ramp.

This is how a rumor start. Double check Bonnie's response. There is nothing concrete she mentioned.

 

[jhm]

I wonder if sourcing LG Chem batteries could reduce import duties and other limitations in China or possibly South Korea. LG Chem has battery factories in both countries. If the batteries could be fully packed in either country that could improve logistics as well. For example, Tesla could ship cars without batteries to China, build the pack and do final assembly in China.

 

[RobStark]

I wonder if sourcing LG Chem batteries could reduce import duties and other limitations in China or possibly South Korea. LG Chem has battery factories in both countries. If the batteries could be fully packed in either country that could improve logistics as well. For example, Tesla could ship cars without batteries to China, build the pack and do final assembly in China.

Panasonic has three lithium-ion factories in China.

http://news.panasonic.com/press/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html

 

[jhm]

Interesting. Do any of these plants supply Tesla?

Panasonic has three lithium-ion factories in China.

http://news.panasonic.com/press/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html

 

[bh1783]

I wonder if sourcing LG Chem batteries could reduce import duties and other limitations in China or possibly South Korea. LG Chem has battery factories in both countries. If the batteries could be fully packed in either country that could improve logistics as well. For example, Tesla could ship cars without batteries to China, build the pack and do final assembly in China.

Could be helpful in Korea. The BMW i3 gets a 15k EV credit in Korea (batteries are sourced from Samsung SDI).

 

[mdemetri]

I wonder if sourcing LG Chem batteries could reduce import duties and other limitations in China or possibly South Korea. LG Chem has battery factories in both countries. If the batteries could be fully packed in either country that could improve logistics as well. For example, Tesla could ship cars without batteries to China, build the pack and do final assembly in China.

Were you referring to this news below that LG and Tesla may be close to a deal? BTW, I love how LG stock is skyrocketing 50% because of the perception of increased EV needs from fallout of the Volkswagen scandal, but the stock of leading producer of EV's (TSLA) is battered.

Koreas LG Chem To Tie-Up With Tesla As Volkswagen Scandal Fuels Electric Cars - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

 

[RobStark]

Interesting. Do any of these plants supply Tesla?

Nope.

Tesla wants batteries with minerals mined to Western standards of environmental responsibility and no conflict minerals.

On top the material issue, can't have Tesla haters all over the internet(Seeking Alpha) posting pictures of Chinese mines leaving of cesspool of chemicals in rivers meant as drinking source or pictures of African kids with their hands blown/chopped off because Tesla funded local warlord by using their minerals.

I take it importing minerals into China from non Chinese companies is problematic as well as authenticating Chinese minerals are mined clean or purchased from ethical sources.

 

[dmckinstry]

This story of a report by Baird's Ben Kallo sums up my near-term expectations. For those of us long-termers, it is likely to be a trying period into next year:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - This Tesla Analyst Is Waiting Until 2016 For Catalysts | Benzinga

I imagine this is a major factor in reversing the stock again today.

For me, the lower it ends the year the better. Much of my TSLA is in my IRA. The smaller my minimum distribution, the less I'll have to sell when the price goes up next year.