Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

I'm still not seeing where he's proclaiming himself our leader. I really feel like you're reaching to extrapolate on your point. The guy has a dream thousands, millions of us share. He has worked to put himself in a position to develop technologies to allow us to go.

Now your comment that other leaders in history didn't have billions behind them is fine, but he's not proclaiming to be a leader. He's far more akin to explorer - and they DID have billions (adjusted for inflation) behind them. This feels equally the same in my mind.

Would you like to outline the dangers in him/SpaceX further developing rockets and propelling us to Mars? Because I'm not seeing it and I'm not seeing the world's governments stepping up.

"The guy has a dream thousands, millions of us share."

it is also a dream of mine... but I do not want individuals or markets to drive innovation in science. it leads to very bad things. this is very general... but that's how I see it.

take the Hadron Collider for example... many billions of dollars have been spent on this... an enormous multi-decade project just as Elon's SpaceX ambitions would be... but can you name the billionaire visionary backing this?

no... because it is a massive collaboration of highly enthusiastic scientists without personal or commercial interests driving this effort.

as humans evolve and expand the world... so should our approach to achieving such things... making money and vast wealth is a legacy approach and we need to develop a better more sustainable way of evolving.

and you might immediately react to this by stating Elon is trying to do just this... but then you are on a message board titled "Short Term TSLA Price Movements".

 

[dha]

I think Tesla would want to simultaneously announce profitability with the delivery report if they achieve it, so I can see it being delayed. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't released until Wednesday, 10/5. I would interpret a delay as slightly bullish, speculatively of course.

I don't see them pushing the date out that late as it would go against the promised "within three days of quarter end"

Also, if you're feeling nostalgic, here's Tesla's Q1 2013 profitability press release (dated Sunday March 31, so they didn't even wait till the quarter was officially over) - Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

I'm sure Tesla's finances are far more complicated now, of course.

 

[Mike Smith]

I feel the gains will come this week, before the deliveries announcement. Buy the rumor, sell the news. I feel by Friday afternoon good deliveries numbers will be fully priced in and Monday will only bring confirmation or disappointment.

 

[RobStark]

Christopher Columbus took a trip on a boat where the end result could have ended in the death of himself and his crew... Elon is making decisions that are capable of affecting every single person on the planet... maybe he's right... maybe he's wrong... but is this for him to decide?

Albert Einstein: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Your Columbus reference sounds good... but is not an accurate analogy for our time.

Columbus' Voyage had MASSIVE repercussions for every person on the planet save for people belonging to primitive tribes outside the Americas. It is a very accurate analogy.

Every scientist who pushed the edges of knowledge has profound ramifications on society.

Who are you or who is any government to decided where a company or an individual may go or what knowledge they may pursue.

 

[uselesslogin]

So IB is 36% and 200,000 shares available so most likely shares are being returned. This could put downward pressure on the stock for the rest of the week but might be blunted by people looking to be in ahead of delivery numbers.

 

[Intl Professor]

"snip

Take Autopilot for example... how many PhDs in computer science have expressed their concerns over premature introduction of such technologies?... snip

I know a lot of dumb Ph.D.s, just saying. Myself included when I said "silicon valley is not in Hollywood."

 

[myusername]

Columbus' Voyage had MASSIVE repercussions for every person on the planet save for people belonging to primitive tribes outside the Americas. It is a very accurate analogy.

Every scientist who pushed the edges of knowledge has profound ramifications on society.

Who are you or who is any government to decided where a company or an individual may go or what knowledge they may pursue.

"Every scientist who pushed the edges of knowledge has profound ramifications on society. "

Elon is not a scientist... he is an entrepreneur... there is a dramatic difference.

 

[Wenche]

Tesla’s Model 3 Could Take 300,000 Bpd Off U.S. Gasoline Demand | OilPrice.com

Ev sales was 17% of total car sales in Norway in 2015. Do anyone think it will take US 20 years more to reach 12%?
Really?

 

[MartinAustin]

I feel the gains will come this week, before the deliveries announcement. Buy the rumor, sell the news. I feel by Friday afternoon good deliveries numbers will be fully priced in and Monday will only bring confirmation or disappointment.

Yes, though today's behaviour, with only 3 trading days left in the week, was hardly buying the rumour!

I was thinking that, if Elon knows that both the deliveries number and the financial results are good, then he would want to keep them separate in order to enjoy a renaissance period in the stock with two injections of good news, vs. one announcement.

The good news announcements would then be -

October 3rd-ish... Q3 deliveries
October 28th... Solar City roof news
November 8th-ish... Q3 financial results

Throughout the middle part of October could be further news regarding the successful acquisition.

p.s. I don't know why there is talk of Christopher Columbus and whether or not Elon should or shouldn't be doing what he is doing clogging up this thread. We're in the short-term TSLA stock movements thread, and this gigantic forum has umpteen other places to discuss what Elon does in the larger sense.

 

[Drivin]

"Every scientist who pushed the edges of knowledge has profound ramifications on society. "

Elon is not a scientist... he is an entrepreneur... there is a dramatic difference.

Remember, Musk believes the odds are really high that we are living in a computer simulation so maybe this Mars thing is just a way to Run up the points in the game.

Sort of like in Civilization where interplanetary travel gets you bonus points

 

[RobStark]

"Every scientist who pushed the edges of knowledge has profound ramifications on society. "

Elon is not a scientist... he is an entrepreneur... there is a dramatic difference.

Laughably stupid.

So a scientist can make decisions for "all of us?"

But not an entrepreneur?

How about an entrepreneur that funds scientist?

How about Thomas Edison? Did he have the right to make society changing scientific/business decisions?

Elon is many things including an engineer and scientist with a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics and was accepted to an applied physics PhD program at Stanford. But he left because he to get to changing society for the better ASAP.

 

[tander]

I think Tesla would want to simultaneously announce profitability with the delivery report if they achieve it, so I can see it being delayed. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't released until Wednesday, 10/5. I would interpret a delay as slightly bullish, speculatively of course.

That would be nice, def possible, but wouldn't be surprised if they keep some cards for the Nov earning release. I could see them announcing the merger, the new products, earnings, and cap raise all in the last week of oct first nov.

 

[Intl Professor]

Elon is not a scientist... he is an entrepreneur... there is a dramatic difference.

And Columbus like other explorers of his time in the first age of imperialism was really an entrepreneur looking for gold to exchange for disease or war.

 

[Crowded Mind]

I don't see them pushing the date out that late as it would go against the promised "within three days of quarter end"

Also, if you're feeling nostalgic, here's Tesla's Q1 2013 profitability press release (dated Sunday March 31, so they didn't even wait till the quarter was officially over) - Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

I'm sure Tesla's finances are far more complicated now, of course.

There was some discussion on whether Tesla meant 3 calendar days or 3 business days when they made that statement because it was not specified. For Q1 2016, they released deliveries on April 4th, leading me to believe that they meant 3 business days. 10/5 is the last day they can release and still fall within the 3 day guidance this quarter.

Thanks for the info on the Q1 2013 timing, I wasn't sure how quickly they had turned that around. Agreed that it is likely more complex now, but perhaps it doesn't take all that long in reality.

 

[Mike Smith]

Yes, though today's behaviour, with only 3 trading days left in the week, was hardly buying the rumour!

I've found in the past that it is isn't until the last day or two that the rumor gets aggressively bought. I expect Friday to be a big day.

 

[Crowded Mind]

That would be nice, def possible, but wouldn't be surprised if they keep some cards for the Nov earning release. I could see them announcing the merger, the new products, earnings, and cap raise all in the last week of oct first nov.

My thinking on this is that they probably want to do a cap raise as soon as possible, so they want the stock to climb as soon as possible which would provide incentive to release potential profitability news with deliveries. Plus the additional surprise factor, and likely more media coverage. The 10/28 product release doesn't fit as well with that hypothesis though.

 

[tander]

My thinking on this is that they probably want to do a cap raise as soon as possible, so they want the stock to climb as soon as possible which would provide incentive to release potential profitability news with deliveries. Plus the additional surprise factor, and likely more media coverage. The 10/28 product release doesn't fit as well with that hypothesis though.

Why do they need to do the cap raise asap? My hunch is they'll do it when the share price is highest.

 

[myusername]

I know a lot of dumb Ph.D.s, just saying. Myself included when I said "silicon valley is not in Hollywood."

yeah... me too... but that's why a scientific *community* is important to weed out the clowns or even those that are simply wrong and are proven so scientifically.

I also am certain that there are billionaires that are dumb and wrong... we have a fine example of one... Trump... should we leave decisions that may impact all of humanity to one scientist?... or one billionaire?

if Trump gets elected... which is highly doubtful thank god... would he have absolute authority?... no... he would be challenged by the other arms of the government.

who challenges Elon? who vets Elon's decisions? one might say the shareholders... but are shareholders interested if the advent of electric cars greatly accelerates the extraction of natural gas to feed an electrical grid to compensate for a dramatic change?... they are not.

what are the ancillary effects of converting all ICE vehicles to EV?... where's the research on this question?... are we just assuming it's all positive?... or have we done scientific research to prove so?

 

[dha]

Why do they need to do the cap raise asap? My hunch is they'll do it when the share price is highest.

To avoid systemic risk. There'll be a major election days after the Q3 earnings call.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Why do they need to do the cap raise asap? My hunch is they'll do it when the share price is highest.

Sure, they may not need to, I have no idea. It's just my suspicion. Time is money. Otherwise we wouldn't have had Elon's first down round with the last cap raise, they would have just waited for a higher SP.