Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[andrerodpt]

I'll just leave this here... European Auto Titans Charge Up Race Vs. Tesla

At first, I thought Daimler drone van idea as laughable. But on second thought, it's kind of cool.

Among its business initiatives is the Mercedes-Benz Vans division's "Vision Van," a last-mile, delivery-focused electric vehicle that features fully automated cargo space and drones that can allow the driver to make a spray of autonomous deliveries with each pit stop.

Thinking outside the box.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Great! Thanks!

Given that I believe that they will either hit this or be very close do you think that they could do this without being at least close to 24-25k deliveries?

Hard to say without having all the numbers, but I believe that Q3 finances will be highly optimized both on the revenue and spend sides, so maximizing deliveries is an absolutely necessary (but not sufficient) step to get to the profitability and positive cash flow.

 

[winfield100]

The same way other car manufacturers build new factories - shop around for generous incentive and subsidized loan packages that states throw at them in the name of jobs?

Consider the number of jobs for humans along with the "Alien Dreadnaught" concept of lots of automation.
(There were Science Fiction stories written about this in the 1940's and 50's)(some with some autofactories poaching finished goods from other autofactories)
High techjobs for folks with lots of education? the present speed with which "knowlege workers" are already being replaced by AI and software.
I love Tesla though, and SpaceX even more
(hope this is not too OT but relevant to future gazing, even if not short term)

 

[30seconds]

If cash flow is within a few percents of being positive, how could CapEx be anything else but severely backloaded to Q4?

Because the business becomes significantly more efficient at higher volumes & CAPEX for Model S and X are in the rear view mirror. 25k cars at ave price of 100k with 23% margin gives $575m in free cash flow

 

[All Your Bases]

Is OT "Off Topic" or "Out There ..."

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

For those who don't follow the market indices DIA, QQQ, and SPY are all down about the same percentage as TSLA right now so today's move looks market driven and not TSLA driven.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Please, let's not get carried away. I would not bet on short squeeze of VW proportions.

Lol I can dream can't I

 

[TrendTrader007]

Well, most of us lost money or lost the chance to lock our earnings because of the epic squeeze belief when the stock price at +- $229. So stopping talking that and be more realistic.
I think even Q3 are good (24000 delivery), TSLA will be at roughly $245. We won't see a break through until M3 ramp.

Well your point is well taken
Okay I'll temper my expectations

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did Tesla send out 2 emails or one email? Some of the comments on here make it sound like there were two. Can someone show me where Tesla said Tesla expects to produce at least 100k-300k Model 3 in 2017?

 

[Drivin]

I think even Q3 are good (24000 delivery), TSLA will be at roughly $245. We won't see a break through until M3 ramp.

Wouldn't a 20% increase in 1 month be considered a break through (200-> 245)?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Did Tesla send out 2 emails or one email? Some of the comments on here make it sound like there were two. Can someone show me where Tesla said Tesla expects to produce at least 100k-300k Model 3 in 2017?

Elon sent out one email on Aug 29th
I dunno about 2017 guidance yet
All I know is total 500k cars by 2018

 

[dandurston]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Did Tesla send out 2 emails or one email? Some of the comments on here make it sound like there were two. Can someone show me where Tesla said Tesla expects to produce at least 100k-300k Model 3 in 2017?

Elon said targeting 100k-200k Model 3 in 2017 on a previous quarterly call (Q1?). My understanding is that there was only 1 email on the subject you are referring to.

Edit: Found the quote. http://seekingalpha.com/article/397...musk-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript

So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's my expectation right now. Yeah, so that's the thing.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

This is nothing more than selling pressure caused by more selling pressure, and a lack of new information, not to mention thousands of BS articles written by people who are making a lot of assumptions. The selling pressure is also being caused by a lack of new large buyers due to big investors playing the waiting game.

Elon should buy $100- $200 million in stock at the current price. This would shut up the naysayers.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Quick thought on the AP blog post -- I wouldn't expect anything today or tomorrow as the tech news cycle will be dominated by Apple's product release. May make the most sense to post it this weekend.

 

[W84M3]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

Yeah, this is getting ridiculous

 

[winfield100]

Is OT "Off Topic" or "Out There ..."

yes, both and neither. the stock price will be affected somehow, and it's more long term (off topic for here) and (out there) for long term investments (how can we profit by anticipating the future)(will we need to profit)

 

[dirtyofries]

Yeah, this is getting ridiculous

It just sort of makes me want to dump all my money in to SCTY.

Resisting.

 

[TMSE]

And the best way to fight the FUD is to.......................Sorry to all who don't like the analogy.............bring on the STEAK!

How about GAAP profitability? Is that good enough of steak?

 

[Gerardf]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.
A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

Could it be that some shorts hope to derail the merger by pushing down the SP, thus upsetting TSLA shareholders ?
I would agree that the SP could make a big drop the should TSLA shareholders vote against.
Seems a risky bet to me.