Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

Agree, if Elon thinks this week was worst than when he nearly lost everything, either he's loose with his figure of speech (he's overly optimistic, but not an exaggerator) or he's starting to lose his memory

As I posted earlier though, you have to remember. Tesla is not Elon's #1. SpaceX is. Back then, SpaceX while also on the brink of failure, didn't have its empire it has now. Elon was probably feeling pretty secure in that his plan for getting us off this planet was underway and relatively safe. Then Amos-6 came along and toppled it some.

 

[TrendTrader007]

well i daresay this is not a bad time to buy TSLA J 18 calls or TSLA common

here is the deal:
if you're committed to buying some calls in TSLA then this is probably a great long term opportunity for j18 calls as long as you clearly understand that you could lose a lot of money if you are wrong. on the other hand the upside is tremendous
if you wait for Q3 delivery #s, i suspect those will be great and i fully expect the stock to turn around between now and early October( unless there is a market crash) so you'll pay more for your calls but the probability of success will be higher
that is a risk-reward decision that only you can make
personally, i love taking risks and i am a gunslinger. caution is not my cup of tea
the only reason why i am --- despite losing my shirt numerous times in the market is because i never shy away from risk despite taking soul-crushing losses,
currently, TSLA is my only major position
i do have approx --worth of calls in FB
plus 403b is all in small caps since they do not allow stocks
my kids have some NVDA, AMZN
my wife who also trades made an absolute killing in ACIA she bought it in low 50s
she also has some BABA

 

[Drivin]

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

I don't think people here "just know more". What actual information would people have that the market does not have?

As fans of Elon and longs and owners Tesla's, they may have different viewpoints than impartial hosts who are looking at the spread and have seen tons of deals, spreads, etc.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I find this rather extreme view.

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.

In the letter Zuckberberg says that the company “was built to accomplish a social mission” and claims, “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” And if you consider master plan as clear as Zuk's statement, you're much better in reading between the lines than I am.

Even after this disclaimer, Zuckerberg has shown a lot more respect for playing expectations game than Elon. Yes, it's a game, but being public company means playing in that sandbox.

Before you feel compelled to criticize me, remember that I'm 100% in TSLA, reservation 3 holder, and currently negotiating to try and trade my older Porsche on classic P90D (for Q3). I am NOT an enemy here. If I'm not devoted enough, so be it.

well i agree. Investors are terribly important to any company and deserve to be treated with respect
how else is Tesla going to raise capital if it were not for investors
it is apparent that Elon realizes the importance of investors and in all his talks and presentations i get the very clear impression that Elon is actually an investor friendly CEO
only those who are divorced from reality of the markets would think that Tesla can accomplish its grand vision without being an investor friendly company

 

[techmaven]

Two price points doesn't make sense given the rapidly falling costs for sensors. Look at the price/quality of cameras included with cell phones for example.

Elon has sounded as though they are closer than that. I believe that the M3 will ship with the HW required for level 4.

While cameras are relatively cheap, radar units probably aren't. Not sure the sensor package is cheap enough by 2017/2018. Would be nice though.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This, out of all places, was published at The Street: Apple Apparent Car Struggles Highlight Just How Impressive Tesla's Accomplishments Are

"All of these challenges, which Apple appears to have received a crash-course in over the last couple of years, show why Tesla's accomplishments are still in many ways under-appreciated. As justified as the criticism of Elon Musk's "hype machine" can be at times, the fact remains that Tesla has, virtually from scratch, become a high-volume maker of cutting-edge electric cars featuring very high customer satisfaction ratings.

Along the way, the company has also become a leader in autonomous driving systems, touchscreen dashboards and battery pack technology, among other things. It has also built highly automated factories to produce its cars and created a large high-speed charging network to power them, and just recently opened up the world's largest battery factory.

The breadth of these accomplishments also perhaps drives home the importance of having a visionary leader to spearhead a company's expansion into big new markets. Tesla certainly has one in Musk. Apple, for all of the talent possessed by Tim Cook and those below him, no longer does."

 

[dc_h]

Smart CEO's do what makes sense to them and the board of dirrectors, and are usually if not always more informed about the long term plans of the companies they run than other shareholders, even those with large stakes.

Smart CEO's take into account the views of people and entities that own stakes in their company, and people who work for the company, but should ultimately make decisions based on what they believe to be the right course of action, taking into account FACTS instead of FEELINGS.

The majority of the people on TMC complaining about the merger, are making emotionally charged generalized assumptions about Solar City's business model and aren't qualified to advise Elon about what steps Tesla should take.

I disagree, there has been a great long debate and found it very informative. I tend to the trust Elon, but wish it never came up. Hope I'm proven wrong in 2 years. Elon hits home runs, but job one should be a thriving Tesla and avoiding worst weeks.

 

[vgrinshpun]

To all of those watching out for the share recall, assuming that shares *started* being recalled on Friday, holders of short positions have 3 days to return shares, which are expiring on Wednesday. If there is sizable recall underway, we should see sizable SP move up by Wednesday.

It is my understanding that for holders of short positions that fail to deliver shares by Wednesday, Brokers will start buying shares using collateral posted by short sellers.

 

[Intl Professor]

That's my point exactly.

I thought you were being sarcastic, but I couldn't tell so, uncharacteristically remained silent.

 

[trentxintong]

To all of those watching out for the share recall, assuming that shares *started* being recalled on Friday, holders of short positions have 3 days to return shares, which are expiring on Wednesday. If there is sizable recall underway, we should see sizable SP move up by Wednesday.

It is my understanding that for holders of short positions that fail to deliver shares by Wednesday, Brokers will start buying shares using collateral posted by short sellers.

Sure, I hope it happens, but I doubt it =).

 

[Turing]

This is quite disturbing actually, worse than when Tesla was about to go bankrupt and SpaceX was out of money to make another go at a successful launch? Ugh.

His main issue back then was mostly financial stress related to funding and capital markets beaten down, and even then there were potential ways out of that, as was the case. These last weeks with spacex pad explosion and not being able to identity the issue at all so far, this has to be excruciating on someone like Elon. In the past they always seemed to be able to hone in on the problem area and quickly figure out the issue. I mean this type of failure with engines off during fueling on a successful rocket with 30+ missions under its belt is unheard of. Add to this that so far all their sensor data appears not to show an obvious internal issue or failure point, makes one wonder about industrial sabotage... Musk industries is growing very strong - one might say close to reaching a critical mass - and they have a lot of powerful opposing interests that stand to lose a lot. Russia would be my biggest concern, a petro economy with a lot of pride and emphasis in it's rocket industry, two major things Musk industries is on a collision course with.

 

[tinm]

Just issued from Schwab this evening. Trust me, you don't see percentage changes like this very often in these emails:

The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter Increased by 945.71% from $0.0035 to $0.04 and the annual decreased by 33.69% from $-0.56 to $-0.75.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just issued from Schwab this evening. Trust me, you don't see percentage changes like this very often in these emails:

The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter Increased by 945.71% from $0.0035 to $0.04 and the annual decreased by 33.69% from $-0.56 to $-0.75.

This consensus has put a huge discount on Elon's email. This is very good news for all who are long TSLA.

I think that Q3, with all of the advance notice coming from Elon, will still shape up as a big surprise.

My concern is potential shenanigans with the acquisition. Hopefully Elon got all his bases covered on this front.

 

[trentxintong]

Just issued from Schwab this evening. Trust me, you don't see percentage changes like this very often in these emails:

The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter Increased by 945.71% from $0.0035 to $0.04 and the annual decreased by 33.69% from $-0.56 to $-0.75.

I do not get it, this quarter earning increased significant while the annual decreased significantly ?

 

[tinm]

I do not get it, this quarter earning increased significant while the annual decreased significantly ?

Massive capex in q4 plus the SCTY closing?

 

[trentxintong]

Massive capex in q4 plus the SCTY closing?

OK, suspecting that. I think Q3 is gonna be big !

 

[EinSV]

Just issued from Schwab this evening. Trust me, you don't see percentage changes like this very often in these emails:

The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter Increased by 945.71% from $0.0035 to $0.04 and the annual decreased by 33.69% from $-0.56 to $-0.75.

Lies, damned lies, and [percentages].

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Just out of curiosity what the heck does Zuckerberg have to do with TSLA or Elon?

Zuk said clearly 'be warned, we don't care about money'.
Elon didn't say this.

And yet, after couple of failures, Zuk learned to play game of managing expectations, which let investors of every vintage be taken for a relatively stable ride.

He made win feel like a win.

In TSLA, for a while now, only 2013-and-before investors feel like they're winning. And it's not like Tesla company is doing badly - company manages to do great things, and yet disappoints Street and gives ammunition to the bears. By constantly over-promising, apparently in order to manage SP.

Taking a loss once, coming clean, and setting up for series of beats would have been how most everyone expect this game to be played. Wall Street likes predictability. Being different isn't bad, but being different by failing to deliver on expectations?

Well, look at the results. Company is so much ahead from where it was 3 years ago, and SP is where it was 3 years ago... And there are many investors underwater.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Massive capex in q4 plus the SCTY closing?

Massive CapEx in Q4 will have impact on cash flow, not on earnings. The consensus seem to be for a Q3 as one off wonder (discounted).

 

[trentxintong]

Zuk said clearly 'be warned, we don't care about money'.
Elon didn't say this.

And yet, after couple of failures, Zuk learned to play game of managing expectations, which let investors of every vintage be taken for a relatively stable ride.

He made wins feel like a win.

In TSLA, for a while now, only 2013-and-before investors feel like they're winning. And it's not like Tesla company is doing badly - company manages to do great things, and yet disappoint Street and give ammunition to the bears. By constantly over-promising, apparently in order to manage SP. Taking a loss once, coming clean, and setting up for series of beats would have been how most everyone expect this game to be played. Wall Street likes predictability. Being different isn't bad, but being different by failing to deliver on expectations?

Well, look at the results. Company is so much ahead from where it was 3 years ago, and SP is where it was 3 years ago... And there are many investors underwater.

Tesla revenue will have almost 3X since 2013. And the SP barely changes ... This is sad given the market rose somewhere 60% I think. I think TSLA is about to go up, breaking the 300$ SP in the next 12 months.