Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[geneclean55]

I know many trades happen at market close. But almost 1.18 M shares ?
More than half of all for today ?

16:00:02 $206.27 346,000 shares.

Yeah, AH action is bouncing around as well

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

For what it's worth, I think the only thing holding Tesla between $205 and $210 is the merger. Almost every day SolarCity has gone up, Tesla has gone down, remained flat, or moved with very little volume.

Note:

1) There is no scenario where the conversion ratio is reduced. If Tesla backs out or lowers its offer, Tesla will need to pay SolarCity a lot. (The precise amount is mentioned in the SEC filing)

2) Did you folks miss the news that SolarCity is considering investing $1billion in Mexico over the next 5 years?

I'm amazed people still think SolarCity's "debt" is debt in the traditional sense.

Also, the price of Solar Panels is no longer the most significant factor for any company that develops and installs Solar + Battery systems.

SolarCity is worth $20-$30 billion TODAY, if you accept the value of what SolarCity has accomplished as of TODAY, and will create using all the assets and projects it has as of TODAY. However, SolarCity must merge with Tesla to realize its optimal value. Likewise, Tesla must merge with SolarCity to realize the optimal value of Tesla Energy.

Until late 2015, most analysts who looked at the big picture and didn't assume SolarCity would go bankrupt agreed SolarCity was worth $20-30 billion if you look 5-10 years out.

Found the SEC filing.

SolarCity - Current Report

 

[winfield100]

As a TSLA investor, I also welcome PHEV's, because every study I've seen, and most comments I've experienced first hand by driver's of PHEV's is that their aspirational car is a Tesla / full EV. Driving electric has that kind of an effect on people.

as an owner and driver of a PHEV, i hate and love it. Its excruciatinly painful when the battery goes to ZERO and the generator kicks in
I literally hate it and the MISTAKE it was, even when smoking BMW 3 series.
I could have stretched and got an S60, but didn't and regret it

 

[Lump]

Elon wasn't aware of the discounts given out in September?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

CPO vehicles usually have much higher margins than new vehicles. This is certainly more true for Tesla, because Tesla vehicles require less maintenance and there is a lot less risk associated with providing an extended warranty. Tesla vehicles require less maintenance and mileage isn't as significant a factor as it is for any other company.

 

[AlMc]

Elon wasn't aware of the discounts given out in September?
View attachment 196696 View attachment 196697

I have to assume this is contributing to AH price fluctuations.
Many follow EM on Twitter

 

[austinEV]

What's your opinion about this article? Looks like the fact that TESLA is using discount to push the 3rd quarter delivery will actually dilute the effect of number itself (if it is high).

Tesla's Use Of Discounts To Meet Auto Delivery Goals Called Worrisome

The way I am thinking of it too is that they will sell some of the P100D's which have stupid high margins. Maybe not many but they probably have 60-70k of profit per unit. That buys a lot of discounts on 70D's.

Napkin math: a reasonably loaded P100D is $159k. An A/P 60 Stripper is $69k. play like its COGS is 60k, so huge profit on the loaded P100D.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Elon wasn't aware of the discounts given out in September?
View attachment 196696 View attachment 196697

I don't think Elon is saying Tesla doesn't reduce the price for CPO vehicles. I think he's saying Tesla doesn't negotiate with the price you see when you order. Also, the price you see for a CPO Tesla is based on a formula that applies to all Tesla.

Also, I think it's possible the buyer is mistaken about the right terminology (and/or) about getting a "discounted price" vs the price for a CPO.

This portion of the statement on Reddit has me thinking the buyer is confused about the situation. It does sound like the "owner advisor" might have made a made a mistake if he/she said Tesla might not be able to honor the price from the listing if the buyer wouldn't finalize payment on that date, even though the vehicle had not been delivered yet.

I am probably going to try and get something out of this on their side since they are also going to try and send me home with a 70 when I ordered a 90D so I will be paying for more car than I am leving there with which is also annoying.

It's possible the person bought a 1 year old 90D and was offered a relatively new 70, with a similar or higher $ value as a loaner until the 90D arrived. His complaint appears to be that 70 is less than 90 and is therefore less expensive. This isn't necessarily the case.

 

[schonelucht]

$600 million in 2-3 weeks!! That is impressive for a company that is about to go bankrupt. /sarc

With the certitude on the deal, it isn't really SolarCity anymore who's raising the money but it's on Tesla. No coincidence it the financing starts flowing again right about now. But would still be interesting to know the cost of capital on those funds for SolarCity as well as term lengths and other details.

 

[Hogfighter]

My musings on the recent (quality) posts:

1) Q3 will show outstanding deliveries. 24-25k. But SP won't move much due to skepticism over discounts and gross margins.

2) Even if they show GAAP profitability, Wall Street will likely see it as a shell game and pay close attention to Q4 guidance....with the possibility of yawning at being GAAP profitable.

3) All recent moves indicate SCTY merger will go through.

4) I fly directly over the Fremont factory quite often, and it sure looks bigger than it did a few years ago......

 

[brian45011]

OMG! What a great idea! Forgo some eventual profits 10 years down the road for some not bad financing terms now. Still, wouldn't Tesla be able to borrow more cheaply than these Solarcity bonds? Iirc, the last one was at 6.5% interest...

"SCTY today announced that it raised $305 million in its second cash equity transaction. A private investment fund affiliated with Quantum Strategic Partners Ltd. and advised by Soros Fund Management LLC provided the equity investment in a portfolio of residential, commercial and industrial solar projects. The transaction also included a fully amortizing, 18-year loan that was syndicated to five high-quality institutional investors.

By placing the equity investor and lender group separately, SolarCity was able to achieve a pre-tax, weighted average cost of capital for the transaction of 7.4%, a significant improvement over its first cash equity transaction"

SolarCity Raises $305 Million in Latest Cash Equity Financing

 

[schonelucht]

6) The P90D fire sale of both classic nosecone and overall when the P100D was released is again, a smaller number of vehicles and many of these had significant miles and age which would have caused discounting anyways. With the estimated 40% margin on these vehicles, Tesla likely did not sell these at a loss and does this essentially every quarter to refresh demo stock. This does also mean there was increased demand for the facelift models and the P100D models. Obviously, the total number of P100D model sold is quite modest.

The discount on the classic P90D will not show up in gross margins, but will show up in SG&A. Either way, it's money off the table for Tesla.

 

[tlo]

You're absolutely right. I filed my lending paperwork and today my shares were lent out at 14.5% interest which as I understand from one of your posts now dropped to 11% or so
In any case all my shares in Roth IRAs were lent out and 74% of my shares in my margin account were lent out
I'm excited because even at 10% interest rate I'll make a killing on a daily basis from interest alone
With my decent holdings in TSLA my daily interest is highly satisfactory and I plan to continue this lending program indefinitely that is as long as shorts desire this stock
Thank you for all your informative posts.

Thanks for this. I just initiated a position transfer from my existing broker to IB so I can get on their lending program. I'm slapping myself for not doing this earlier this year when the borrowing rates were so high.

 

[Lessmog]

Which is really sad. As recently as the 1990s the WSJ had the best financial investigative journalism in the world. (They broke the Enron scandal!) Since Murdoch bought it, it's turned into fishwrap.

I think that's E-fishwrap! Please try to stay à bientôt, if you'll pardon my French.

 

[AlMc]

I don't think Elon is saying Tesla doesn't reduce the price for CPO vehicles. I think he's saying Tesla doesn't negotiate with the price you see when you order. Also, the price you see for a CPO Tesla is based on a formula that applies to all Tesla.

Also, I think it's possible the buyer is mistaken about the right terminology (and/or) about getting a "discounted price" vs the price for a CPO.

I know this is the age of instant replies through Twitter but EM should be very careful about his tweets.
I think this does hit the headlines and TM/EM comes out with a PR piece tomorrow.
Everyone *knows* TM will discount CPOs at times to move product. The problem is that you can get a brand new car off the lot for less than a custom ordered one. Both are new cars. If you want to parse words: Yes, everyone pays the same for a custom ordered car. That is exactly what he should have tweeted

 

[austinEV]

My musings on the recent (quality) posts:

1) Q3 will show outstanding deliveries. 24-25k. But SP won't move much due to skepticism over discounts and gross margins.

2) Even if they show GAAP profitability, Wall Street will likely see it as a shell game and pay close attention to Q4 guidance....with the possibility of yawning at being GAAP profitable.

3) All recent moves indicate SCTY merger will go through.

4) I fly directly over the Fremont factory quite often, and it sure looks bigger than it did a few years ago......

Concerning 1 and 2: I firmly believe that it will move the SP. It isn't LOGICAL that it should, since they are merely hitting their stated goals. And yes, one could argue they are just dressing up their financials for a quarter. But this is also telegraphed and per plan. TSLA skepticism is SO LOW that just hitting stated goals is ready to be perceived as a win. Consider that the Q2 results were terrible and the market shrugged it off-- the low bar expectations were met. The new TSLA narrative is that they miss goals, deliveries, lose money yada, yada yada. If they have and impressive quarter it will shift the narrative back to a company that can-do.

Steak, rather than sizzle.

Sure, the plan will be to go back to red ink but that's the plan. TSLA is trading at a near term "loser" discount. With good news skewering several Bear arguments the valuation will adjust upward.

 

[Lessmog]

Concerning 1 and 2: I firmly believe that it will move the SP. It isn't LOGICAL that it should, since they are merely hitting their stated goals. And yes, one could argue they are just dressing up their financials for a quarter. But this is also telegraphed and per plan. TSLA skepticism is SO LOW that just hitting stated goals is ready to be perceived as a win. Consider that the Q2 results were terrible and the market shrugged it off-- the low bar expectations were met. The new TSLA narrative is that they miss goals, deliveries, lose money yada, yada yada. If they have and impressive quarter it will shift the narrative back to a company that can-do.

Steak, rather than sizzle.

Sure, the plan will be to go back to red ink but that's the plan. TSLA is trading at a near term "loser" discount. With good news skewering several Bear arguments the valuation will adjust upward.

*Sugar*, you're making me hungry! All this talk about sizzle, steak, skewers and bear-B-Que. Here I am, all out of fuel. Not one red chili bean.

 

[Drivin]

My musings on the recent (quality) posts:

1) Q3 will show outstanding deliveries. 24-25k. But SP won't move much due to skepticism over discounts and gross margins.

2) Even if they show GAAP profitability, Wall Street will likely see it as a shell game and pay close attention to Q4 guidance....with the possibility of yawning at being GAAP profitable.

3) All recent moves indicate SCTY merger will go through.

4) I fly directly over the Fremont factory quite often, and it sure looks bigger than it did a few years ago......

Well summarized.
GAAP profitability is an interesting milestone if it is the beginning of a series of quarters of profitability. If it is a one-off, it gets discount accordingly. Besides, didn't TSLA have one quarter of profitability a bit ago?

 

[austinEV]

*Sugar*, you're making me hungry! All this talk about sizzle, steak, skewers and bear-B-Que. Here I am, all out of fuel. Not one red chili bean.

mmmm sugar.

 

[Lump]

I don't think Elon is saying Tesla doesn't reduce the price for CPO vehicles. I think he's saying Tesla doesn't negotiate with the price you see when you order. Also, the price you see for a CPO Tesla is based on a formula that applies to all Tesla.

Also, I think it's possible the buyer is mistaken about the right terminology (and/or) about getting a "discounted price" vs the price for a CPO.

This portion of the statement on Reddit has me thinking the buyer is confused about the situation. It does sound like the "owner advisor" might have made a made a mistake if he/she said Tesla might not be able to honor the price from the listing if the buyer wouldn't finalize payment on that date, even though the vehicle had not been delivered yet.



It's possible the person bought a 1 year old 90D and was offered a relatively new 70, with a similar or higher $ value as a loaner until the 90D arrived. His complaint appears to be that 70 is less than 90 and is therefore less expensive. This isn't necessarily the case.

You rushed to defend Elon before reading the details on Reddit.
Lots of buyers received discounts on non CPO's, Elon may not be aware by his tweet.
Op's purchase was not a CPO!
He purchased a 90D but it won't arrive until next week so they offered a 70 loaner.

So, my owner adviser called last night and confirmed my inventory car will not be delivered on Friday as they were shooting for. I ordered on the 17th of this month. They are asking me to finalize the sale on Friday regardless of the car being here and pushing the sale through. They are offering to then send me home with a loaner car until my car actually comes in. This is obviously frustrating but sounds like others are going through the same thing. He insinuated that if I don't agree to this then the discounted pricing we already agreed on wouldn't be honored so I guess the deposit I put down only holds me to the terms of the sale not them. I think if I really pressed them on that they would fold but not entirely sure. I am obviously very eager to get my car but any Tesla is better than what I am currently driving and finalizing the sale would at least remove any risk on my side of losing the pricing or my current car breaking down etc. I am kind of concerned about how my insurance company is going to handle this situation. I am also a little concerned about finalizing sale of a car I have never actually seen. They did reassure me that when my car gets here if I see any issues with it they will resolve them. Still a big purchase to treat in this way. Anyone else being told similar things or in the same situation? Did you press them on anything? I am probably going to try and get something out of this on their side since they are also going to try and send me home with a 70 when I ordered a 90D so I will be paying for more car than I am leving there with which is also annoying. Any advice on what I could ask for as compensation for the whole situation?

Weird situation : teslamotors