In 4 out of the last 5 quarters, my final Tesla delivery estimate was off by 2.6% or less. In Q3, I will post my final estimate on Twitter
here on the last day of the quarter as usual. I'm again aiming for less than 3% error. Here is what I think of error rates:
- 0-2.0% Excellent
- 2.1-3.0% Very good
- 3.1-4.0% Good
- 4.1-5.0% Average
I'm using DMV data and VIN data for US deliveries. Getting the Model S number wrong could cause more than 2.6% overall error on its own. I'm not aware of a better source than DMV data for Model S deliveries in Q3. I'm purchasing some of the DMV data so I can have data for September before September is over,
Instead of publishing all content only on Patreon, I post the results on Twitter too with a 7-day lag, except for the final estimate on 30 Sep. That one won't have a lag.