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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
GDP's tend to grow over time. China's GDP has increased 10-fold in under 20 years. Where do you think it will be in 10 more years?
In 1989 only one company had a market cap over 100B. Today we have several companies valued over 1T.
If 16T is possible I have full faith that Elon and his team have the best chance of achieving these sky-high valuations
There are a lot of different perspectives on this forum. I appreciate and learn. Thank you.
I wonder about margin on cars that last longer and should have a correspondingly high resale value. Value chain length and speed, how does one quantify these?
I wonder about margin on cars that last longer and should have a correspondingly high resale value. Value chain length and speed, how does one quantify these?
I think the selling is due to the China energy crisis. Panic selling more or less.
ZachF
Active Member
If Xi keeps doing what he's doing, China will for sure get stuck in the middle income trap. Outside of tiny petro-states, no country has ever lifted itself out of it without a certain critical mass of political, social and economic freedom. China is headed completely in the opposite direction. (And it remains to be seen if those petro states will just revert back when the oil money disappears, which I personally think is likely)
It's easy to grow your economy by leaps when your urban labor force is growing by 5% per year, but that low hanging fruit has already been plucked. In order to grow past that you need inclusive, not extractive institutions.
No, selling volume specifically came into TSLA 30 mins ago and I didn't see the same spike in any other stocks I track. The China energy crisis was reported yesterday, wouldn't cause a specific spike in selling in just one specific stock today
That's pretty typical. Apple and Tesla stories drive clicks more than broad market news.
It's likely weak longs panicking on a down day for the macros and automakers, except Ford. Some of those weak longs might have set stop loss limits at $780 and $770, which led to cascades downward. The IRS loves them for realizing taxable gains.
Unhelpful are the fiscal bickerings in Congress, rising treasury yields, and the often weak market at this time of the year. A dip buying opportunity may have begun presenting itself for calmer minds with longer term visions.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I just initiated my first bull put spread! What an exciting day. With any luck the sun will come out tomorrow.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
This immediately brought to mind the words of the illustrious Dr. Hunter S. Thompson -
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
This begs the question, would this mean that a HODLer is a pro weirdo? 'Cuz I'd agree that it likely hasn't gotten as weird as it is gonna get.
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Or it's about the latest article of Fred from Electrek blog "police officer sued Tesla and restaurant for the crash of the drunk driver to police officer car and wantb1 millions or a maxupimsl of 20 millions of $ for this case."
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The only reason China hasn't risen out of the upper-middle income category is because there are still millions of rural peasants. It's easy to say they have plucked all the low-hanging fruit but that belief is mostly driven by political idealogues who hate watching China gain influence and wealth and love to predict their downfall. But it's difficult to predict the future (which is exactly what these idealogues are trying to pass off as reasonable analysis).
The fact of the matter is that there are still plenty of rural poor that are under-utilized in the economy and China's GDP is likely to be a LOT higher in 10 years than it is now.
That news actually began circulating yesterday. The unlikely maximum award equates to a 2 cent move in the share price.
ZachF
Active Member
No doubt it is a coincidence that we’re seeing a spike in yields with attendant baying from the press just when some folks in DC are trying to gin up their Tera-dollar spending package while other folks there are arguing that it will stoke ruinous inflation.
On a somber note, if the administration of either (or both) China or the US fumbles its high-wire act— meaning Evergrande and the debt ceiling respectively— there might be, ah, turbulence though I don’t think inflation would be the issue.
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Hmmmm, I wonder if it is a new prototype, or they simply updated the original prototype?
ZachF
Active Member
China's labor force is already shrinking, and it has already passed the steep part of the urbanization S-curve. (These figures don't include the huge migrant population either, so the real number is higher/worse...) It's urban population, which was growing 5% pa from 1980 to ~2015, will begin shrinking in just a few years. Again, it's easy to grow fast when you have your urban population growing 5% per year, and they only have a Ethiopia-level capital base. When it's shrinking 1-2% pa, it's a different story.
Also, It's not to do with "political idealouges", it's fact. You NEED a certain amount of freedom to advance past the "copy-paste: steel mill" phase of growth. After the USSR hit this phase it stagnated, then declined. There is a REASON there are no dictatorships among the world's most wealthy nations.
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