This is just an indication that Tesla's quality control needs work. Those seams...Actually they're just about all recalled.
Porsche recalls 43,000 Taycan EVs over sudden power loss
Porsche has recalled 43,000 Taycan EVs over a sudden power loss issue that requires a software update.www.engadget.com
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Don’t park your Hyundai Kona EV inside because it could catch fire
Hyundai is recalling 82,000 electric vehicles.www.theverge.com
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
If these forecasts are remotely correct about the economic impact of autonomous driving, cheap renewable energy and AI in general, then those projections for American GDP are not nearly aggressive enough. I for one am expecting a boom of a decade coming up.
These are some great points. A couple years ago I didn't think I'd be a millionaire until I was in my mid 60's, but I passed that point almost two decades earlier thanks to TSLA.
With all the technological advances happening today it's hard to imagine how this plays out over the next decade. I feel like we are about to see a tech revolution the likes of which the world hasn't seen before, and who knows how that will impact the world economy, let alone company valuations.
While $17,000/share for TSLA by 2031 sounds ludicrous by today's standards, it might seem fine by 2031 standards.
thesmokingman
Active Member
I know right? Hyundai recalls 82,000 EV's for batteries and no one blinks an eye. You don't barely even know it's happening. Someone's tailgate is slightly off, OMG!!
ZachF
Active Member
Actually they're just about all recalled.
Porsche recalls 43,000 Taycan EVs over sudden power loss
Porsche has recalled 43,000 Taycan EVs over a sudden power loss issue that requires a software update.
Don’t park your Hyundai Kona EV inside because it could catch fire
Hyundai is recalling 82,000 electric vehicles.
Perhaps Elon was right about pouch cells...
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I think TSLA’s valuation will be much higher than “reasonable” people think around 2030. BUT, it will not be easy to hold all the way through and there will be ample opportunity to be shaken out as the world undergoes the changes that will allow such a high valuation for TSLA.
As it has always been, you’ve got to commit to the stomach-churning ride to reap the rewards.
As it has always been, you’ve got to commit to the stomach-churning ride to reap the rewards.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
In my 30 plus year investing experience I have seen quite a number of innovative companies with early successes touted as growing to the moon and taking over their market with wild growth projections and the whole nine yards. I'm naturally a skeptic, especially when I can't see why the the uber-bull case might come to pass, why their early lead is going to translate into utter dominance. Tesla uber-bulls project all that and more. Because it involves more markets and bigger markets. Yet, somehow, I see it as a whole lot more likely than any uber-growth bull case I've ever seen. Disclaimer: I was skeptical on Amazon and I was as wrong as wrong could be.
That doesn't mean I think the uber-bull case is more likely than not, just that it's a whole lot more plausible (makes a lot more sense) than any other uber-bull case for any other public company I've ever seen presented. And I've seen most of them. Most of these types of companies have very intelligent and very driven management teams who, ultimately, fail to make the uber-bullish hype a reality for various reasons. That could happen with Tesla. But the reason I'm not nearly as skeptical is that Tesla has something I've never seen in any other company, namely a willingness to question everything and assume nothing. They have a culture that rewards putting on their first-principles thinking cap, looking at the actual facts, BS not allowed, and figuring out how to break new ground, how to make something better while using less resources to do it. This kind of thinking is so instilled in the company it extends to everything, from important management decisions to how they design the cars to how they build the cars to how they market (or don't market) and sell the cars. And it applies to their other business segments even if we haven't seen the results as much yet (mostly due to Tesla pivoting away from those segments to focus more intently on auto production).
Yes, I've seen a lot of uber-bull growth stories presented over the last 30 years, Tesla seems to stand out from all others in ways I think are meaningful enough to be a different breed. And that's before considering they have a more noble goal than all the others in the category of uber-growth companies which is an important factor in terms of acquiring and retaining talent.
Tesla doesn't need to meet the expectations of the uber-bulls for me to achieve stellar returns and be thankful that I invested. But the fact that they very well could meet those projections simply means that buying TSLA is like buying a high quality company that comes with a whole bunch of free call options on the greatest growth story to ever happen.
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Geez. Where did Tesla find this flock of Black Swans? One year… just ONE where nothing bizarre happens…
scubastevo80
Member
Great comment - I feel like most people are so far on one side of the fence or other - the thought is that we've either have to go to $10000 or we're going to $0. If TSLA stock returned 20%/year, I'd be happier than a pig in ... well... you know. There's nothing else I can find, in my limited research and relative to my other holdings, that has the potential (key word) that Tesla does over the next 10 years. Their ability to disrupt and rapidly innovate is proven at this point, and there's nowhere else I'd rather invest the majority of my family's wealth.
This story has received a lot of traction in the financial world today (source: am banker
). There's concern that the energy disruption in China could export sustained inflation to the west via higher priced goods. Low prices for Chinese manufactured goods have been one of the main reasons the west has been able to print money over the last 15 years and not need to raise rates.If the west needs to raise rates quickly to control inflation we should see a sizable hit to all asset valuations as people unwind their leverage. Not an issue if you're a buy'n'hold investor for the long term but we could be in a position where we get an asset price shock and can't just print our way out of it.
You're correct of course, but if you were to listen to the financial media these past two days, you'd think that it only affects Tesla and Apple.
if that is the case Tesla would have been forced to split In a Tesla Cars, Tesla Energy, Tesla Batteries etc. Market cap of 16 trillion is ridiculous for one company that is about the same as the current GDP of China!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I do appreciate the sentiment, but this hyperbole isn't reasonable on any level. Tesla's margins aren't on an S-curve to 100%. I don't see 80% (software company scale margins) if for no other reason that Tesla's business will always contain more hardware and more Cap Ex than software companies.
Market share isn't on an S-curve to 100%. I do agree with the premise that Tesla is likely to hold very high market share in the light duty vehicle market as EVs take over that market. But the comparison we have today is around 10% for big market share. I like Tesla at around 30% (1/3rd) which is already outrageously high. I might even be talked into 50%, but neither are S-curves to 100%. At most that's an S-curve to 50%.
My primary constraint on market share by any 1 company in the automotive market, regardless of the company, are the number of countries in the world for whom car manufacturing is a big component of their economy. Big enough that national governments will bail out failing companies.
Bit of a sidebar: this is a reason why I consider building a factory in China and Germany to be so important - there are important import and logistics values for doing so. There is also a built-local component that is crucial. At some point down the road, when the current German car manufacturers are in worse and worse economic shape, Tesla might be US owned but it'll employ a big chunk of people in Germany, building made-in-Germany cars. To some extent Tesla will be taking over the local car manufacturing activity, rather than replacing it and shipping the work overseas.
I am in complete agreement with this notion.
In particular I've seen the idea that at any given point in human history, you can define our technological state and quality of life in terms of 3 technology vectors: communications, transportation, and energy.
As a point of comparison, I view the Internet as the manifestation of an important vector around communications: approximately zero marginal cost communications. It's become so cheap today to communicate, that for most of us we pay some sort of monthly access fee to send and receive on the communication network, and any incremental communication after the access fee is free.
Free and at such volume that we have businesses today that weren't being dreamed about in the '90s (Netflix; competition!?!). And the downloads of high MB / multi-GB data volumes is STILL approximately zero margin cost (the next episode of Smallville I watch won't cost me anything, after I've paid for the network access).
Consider the economic activity and benefits associated with approximately zero marginal cost communications. Not only are they huge and deflationary (in a good way), I claim that we're still scratching the surface of just what approximately zero marginal cost communications can/will be.
Costs for renewable energy are falling to the point that we have line of sight, today, to approximately zero marginal cost energy. At the retail level I expect that within 1 or 2 decades our electricity bill won't work as it works today. Instead of metering out kWh of energy consumption we'll pay a network access fee, and consume as much electricity as we want / need. That network access fee will probably be priced relative to the size of our network connection. 100a vs 200a service for example.
And within a pretty big budget you'll just use what you use. This will drive natural gas furnaces, cooking stoves, ... out of the market.
And most interesting to me - it'll drive the creation of new businesses and business models that we can't imagine today. What will we do, when energy is approximately zero cost? We see what it's meant in the communications industry - it certainly hasn't meant that the companies building communications equipment can't find people to buy their stuff. Turns out that there is a LOT of money to be made providing approximately zero marginal cost communications.
The reason we'll see this approximately zero cost energy is also discussed in the Energy Report — RethinkX report. To achieve roughly 100% renewable energy grids, the wind and solar assets will need to be built to significantly higher than a good day's generation. I believe they came up with about 4x - I've seen a similar idea out of Australia where they build the grid in a particular area to 7x.
What businesses can be built that have some ability to turn their energy consumption off and on at the hourly or daily level of detail, where that energy is practically free? An easy way to expand the businesses is for those businesses to build their own battery packs (or subscribe to 'cloud battery' services
), that accumulate charge when there is excess available, and then draw that charge down to bridge between times of surplus (most of the time) to times of deficit.Approximately zero marginal cost energy is coming to a chunk of the worldwide economic activity that today is ~10% of GDP. The world is about to free up a big chunk of GDP for other uses, and the history of that happening is that the worldwide GDP expands a lot more than the savings would suggest.
Approximately zero marginal cost transportation comes closer with free energy, but its not here yet. Transporter technology though, with free and abundant energy ... that'd be the ticket.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
That is a likely outcome but is irrelevant to current shareholders, because we'd get equity in the new companies.
petit_bateau
Active Member
May I suggest a few sums.
1. There are about 80m cars/light trucks sold worldwide each year. They each do about 250k miles, then get scrapped. If the replacement vehicle does 1m miles before scrapping, then how many cars per year will be sold in the new steady state ?
2. If (say) a $0.50 per mile taxi service was available worldwide in a practical manner, how much of the available (now 80m/yr) vehicle purchase market will continue to purchase new vehicles each year.
3. What fraction of the car/light vehicle market would Tesla have at that time ? And for bonus points would there be economic sense in Tesla producing 20m cars/light vehicles per year given your answer to this ?
4. So how does that value Tesla ?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This story has received a lot of traction in the financial world today (source: am banker
Low priced Chinese goods flooding the American market is, more often than not, pointed to as a net negative to the American economy, not a savior that, if it were ever to reverse, would cause pain and suffering.
As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Things swing one way too far, then they swing the other. There are good and bad points to be made about both extremes but, unless you are a banker or think you are a market timer, it's all just noise and innovation and industriousness wins at the end of the day. People will always strive to make their lives better.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So in the last few days:
TSLA has dropped a few % in a single day because the sky is falling.
TSLA has increased a few % in a single day because Q3 gonna be lit.
TSLA has dropped a few % in a single day because the sky is falling again.
Not sure if I will be peeing my pants out of fear tomorrow, or peeing my pants out of excitement. Alas, either way it looks like I'll be peeing my pants.
Crank up the drama, Wall St.
TSLA has dropped a few % in a single day because the sky is falling.
TSLA has increased a few % in a single day because Q3 gonna be lit.
TSLA has dropped a few % in a single day because the sky is falling again.
Not sure if I will be peeing my pants out of fear tomorrow, or peeing my pants out of excitement. Alas, either way it looks like I'll be peeing my pants.
Crank up the drama, Wall St.
Was there some sort of news or FUD that come out 30 mins ago? TSLA was holding up very well and then exactly 30 mins ago, some selling volume started coming in that was not related to macro's going down. TSLA went from beating the Nasdaq pretty nicely (down 1.5% verses 2.5%) to now lower than the Nasdaq.
Selling volume now accelerating.
Selling volume now accelerating.
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