Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Volume is so light everything about the PM and tomorrow with the FED.

I think they are locked in at 75 basis points. They basically announced this in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago. The market has this priced in.

If the PM earnings for GOOG and MSFT are OK and, most important, forward guidance is good and the FED interview shows a softening of hawkishness (which it should, IMO) so that market can expect 50 basis points or less going forward, I expect a nice rally.

After that, catalyst for TSLA (of course, stock moves when it wants to anyway) would be July production in China. If that number comes in healthy despite retooling shutdowns, watch out.

Then the all important ( ) July CPI on August 10.

Yeah I expect this is what will play out. Alphabet and Microsoft hit or mildly exceed expectations and the Fed only goes to 75bps which initiates a relief rally through tomorrow at close. Early GDP numbers on Thursday could stop or fuel that rally. If GDP is at all positive... even .1%, we will see a pretty substantial rally. I have major doubts it will be positive though.

I personally believe the July CPI release will likely be a strong rally day regardless of where the market is at. So many things have dropped in prices in July from June that we seem really likely to have a light monthly print (still a heavy yoy print).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah I expect this is what will play out. Alphabet and Microsoft hit or mildly exceed expectations and the Fed only goes to 75bps which initiates a relief rally through tomorrow at close. Early GDP numbers on Thursday could stop or fuel that rally. If GDP is at all positive... even .1%, we will see a pretty substantial rally. I have major doubts it will be positive though.

I personally believe the July CPI release will likely be a strong rally day regardless of where the market is at. So many things have dropped in prices in July from June that we seem really likely to have a light monthly print (still a heavy yoy print).

Also reminder, that after this week, no more Fed meetings/potential rate hikes until Sept. No Fed meeting in August

 

[ZeApelido]

It's not just Amazon, I could point to stock after stock after stock that have P/E mutliples, Forward P/E mutliples, price to sales multiples, and so on........that fundamentally make zero sense with TSLA being at the valuation it's currently at.

So again, either Tesla needs to go up at least 30% right now or most of the market need to take a 30% haircut. Otherwise, I consider TSLA's valuation to be a joke today, tomorrow, next week, and next month until that dynamic changes.

I chose not to give Wall St an "out" for their obvious shenanigans by saying "But Elon did this or that!".

There will always be another stock with a lower PE ratio than TSLA, another stock with a higher PE ratio. Constantly looking at other stocks will constantly keep you feeling unsatisifed. "But what if we had the forward PE of Enphase? Life is not fair!"

Life isn't fair, @StarFoxisDown!

We can only find happiness by looking at our internal PE ratios.

Close you eyes, take 6 deep breathes and visualize TSLA PE ratios flowing in and out of your body.

Only when you can do this will you be able to access your subconscious beta and achieve happiness.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There will always be another stock with a lower PE ratio than TSLA, another stock with a higher PE ratio. Constantly looking at other stocks will constantly keep you feeling unsatisifed. "But what if we had the forward PE of Enphase? Life is not fair!"

Life isn't fair, @StarFoxisDown!

We can only find happiness by looking at our internal PE ratios.

Close you eyes, take 6 deep breathes and visualize TSLA PE ratios flowing in and out of your body.

Only when you can do this will you be able to access your subconscious beta and achieve happiness.

You guys make it sound like I’m about to sell my entire position .

I’ve been in TSLA for over 9 years now…..I’ve earned the right to be grumpy

 

[SOULPEDL]

... They will take it quarter by quarter, year by year. And on every conference call they will ask about demand and any hint of it softening will play into their bias that no automaker ever has infinite demand for a 50k+ car.

One could make the same argument regarding expensive trucks (as needed to go up the face of a mountain for some reason). Yet Ford can't keep up with truck demand (not that they'd want to or can keep up).

Lending rates on vehicles matter, same as homes. It so happens that I just secured 4.24% on that used 2021 Model Y through Tesla. I was expecting higher given the Fed hikes. Further, we may trade in the original 3 which in Az reduces taxes owed significantly, I'm waiting on the number though... especially FSD value on my 2018 which was split out back then.

 

[traxila]

You guys make it sound like I’m about to sell my entire position .

I’ve been in TSLA for over 9 years now…..I’ve earned the right to be grumpy

No.

If you have been in TSLA for over 9 years, you have specifically voided the right to be grumpy.

You should be in permanent celebration mode.

 

[Christine69420]

Did not see this earlier - after 8 years Tesla will charge customers for Standard Connectivity:

Connectivity

All Tesla vehicles come with access to Standard Connectivity. Standard Connectivity is included in your vehicle, at no additional cost, for eight years beginning on the first day your vehicle was delivered as new by Tesla, or the first day it is put into service (for example used as a demonstrator or service vehicle), whichever comes first. If you are purchasing a used vehicle, you will be notified of how long your vehicle will include access to Standard Connectivity. With Standard Connectivity, you have access to most connectivity features over Wi-Fi, in addition to basic maps and navigation and music streaming over Bluetooth®.


Premium Connectivity provides the ability to access all connectivity features over cellular, in addition to Wi-Fi, for the most intuitive and engaging ownership experience. Premium Connectivity currently is available as a monthly subscription of $9.99 plus applicable tax or as an annual subscription of $99 plus applicable tax and can be purchased at any time from your vehicle touchscreen or the Tesla app. Orders of Model S, Model X, Model Y and Model 3 will receive a Premium Connectivity trial at delivery.


If you own a Tesla vehicle for personal use, you can subscribe to Premium Connectivity from your vehicle touchscreen or the Tesla app. If you are driving a company vehicle, contact your vehicle provider for more information.

 

[WADan]

Because Costco has the best hot dogs available to eat right after the checkout registers.

I no longer enjoy Costco hot dogs as they have stopped providing many required condiments (for example, onions etc…)!

 

[henchman24]

Nasdaq has moved to being ~5% away from either resistance ahead of the next 24 hours.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No.

If you have been in TSLA for over 9 years, you have specifically voided the right to be grumpy.

You should be in permanent celebration mode.

That’s not how I see it……the valuation of Tesla isn’t a surprise to those of us that have been in the stock for so long. We all did the numbers and believed in the growth runway for the company.

That doesn’t change the fact that Teslas valuation today is joke because wall st simply chooses to think al of Tesla’s growth and especially earnings growth, will suddenly stagnate starting next year.

The investment rating for Tesla alone should have every Tesla investor grumpy on a daily basis

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla files new insurance program in Georgia

The proposed effective date is November 15, 2022.

www.coverager.com

 

[Singuy]

That’s not how I see it……the valuation of Tesla isn’t a surprise to those of us that have been in the stock for so long. We all did the numbers and believed in the growth runway for the company.

That doesn’t change the fact that Teslas valuation today is joke because wall st simply chooses to think al of Tesla’s growth and especially earnings growth, will suddenly stagnate starting next year.

The investment rating for Tesla alone should have every Tesla investor grumpy on a daily basis

5/9 years Tesla didn't move. Surely it has cost years off your life back then if you think Tsla's performance sucks today.

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1551930212706914304

I guess you could call electrification an "Industry Wide Headwind" if you sell ICE vehicles.

On Tesla's slides they referred to it as one of their primary demand drivers.

 

[henchman24]

I do love the marketing spin by GM vs the regulated reality in financials. Marketing... we can overtake Tesla by 2025. Financials... we expect to have similar EV revenue in 2030 as Tesla does today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I do love the marketing spin by GM vs the regulated reality in financials. Marketing... we can overtake Tesla by 2025. Financials... we expect to have similar EV revenue in 2030 as Tesla does today.

Yeah I saw those statements by GM. Talk about living in fantasy land.

Exactly what kind of ASP are they expecting when they think they’ll outsell Tesla by 2025…..yet won’t hit Tesla’s 2022 revenue until 2030

 

[Mengy]

I no longer enjoy Costco hot dogs as they have stopped providing many required condiments (for example, onions etc…)!

Our local Costco put all the condiments back out a few months ago. It did suck when they weren't there, I agree.

GM posted bad earnings and yet it's down less than TSLA is today. Who's running this show anyway?

 

[Singuy]

I do love the marketing spin by GM vs the regulated reality in financials. Marketing... we can overtake Tesla by 2025. Financials... we expect to have similar EV revenue in 2030 as Tesla does today.

I'm telling you, too many people are discounting tesla by building in revenue decline due to competition and a loss in marketshare. GJ is looking for that revenue peak everyday. So when these companies say they will "catch up to tesla", they are expecting Tesla to decline while they climb.

 

[MC3OZ]

I doubt the market will react extremely favorably to a prototype robot with no sales. For a similar example, how much does the market value robotaxies? Elon has hyped that for years, but it still isn't close to deployment. Given Tesla's track record, the market is not likely to give Teslabot any more credit until it sees sales.

At best, a Teslabot prototype would add billions to tens of billions valuation to TSLA, but nowhere near a hundred billion. TSLA might go up a fraction of a percent to a couple percent due to Teslabot prototype, which would be lost in the market noise.

Plus, this is not virgin market. There are robots everywhere in factories today. The burden is on Tesla to prove that a general-purpose humanoid robot is superior to a purpose built robot (e.g. automated conveyor belt or picker), and that proof will be through sales.

Mass produced mobile Bots with vision and mobility are more or less a virgin market.
Like most things to do with Tesla only a small percentage of the population will understand. Dojo will be eventually used to train the bots and they will be able to be trained to do useful work. For example, I think when training bots for friut-picking, grading and packing, the vision component is relatively trivial compared to FSD.

 

[Usain]

Tesla files new insurance program in Georgia

The proposed effective date is November 15, 2022.

www.coverager.com

Fantastic news here in Georgia! I'm expecting to pick up my second Tesla next month and this will help a lot. Looking forward to lower premiums in November!

 

[henchman24]

I'm telling you, too many people are discounting tesla by building in revenue decline due to competition and a loss in marketshare. GJ is looking for that revenue peak everyday. So when these companies say they will "catch up to tesla", they are expecting Tesla to decline while they climb.

Oh that is 100% what they are expecting to happen (and so are creditors)... problem is, it flies in the face of the plans we clearly know about. This is part of what the market misses though... Tesla growing like wildfire while widening their TAM. The just when you think TAM is about maxed... BAM! Here's some software! Then (hopefully) robotaxi! Without getting into energy which might be starting to actually get some traction.