Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

The trading in TSLA today, especially over the past 30 mins, has nothing do with the whole market. Just look the volume chart and the number of sell orders that came flooding in at 11:48. There was no corresponding move in the overall market or any other stocks. It was TSLA specific

TSLA went from outperforming it's beta to now underperforming it's beta in the matter of 30 mins.

Those synthetic shares will need t be real soon enough.

Trust the Process

 

[AudubonB]

I have on my desk two items, but one of them is dry and can't get the job done. Can someone please help me differentiate between the good one and the old and useless one?

 

[GOVA]

Tesla needs to show a prototype working in a real world environment. They could hit it out of the park and show more than one working in a Tesla factory.

No union sympathies, not able to impregnate, works 24/7, no COVID/Monkey Pox concerns...literally a home run.

Is that a list of your current cons?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There are volume spikes on other stocks in the 11:20 to 11:55 range too. Nasdaq had heavy sell volume for a half hour before Tesla had the big orders. There were likely a number of stop losses set at 780 and 770 that were just triggered.

TSLA capped as macro's start their recovery........gee where have we seen this before?

Look I'm just pointing out that TSLA isn't primed for some big breakout anytime soon. I completely agree that MM's are naked shorting the stock to hit stop loss orders as much as they can. The stock is clearly in solid control by MM's. Just like time after time for the past 6 months, any strong outperformance by TSLA is successfully capped and then walked right back down after only 1-2 days of outperformance. I'll stop complaining when TSLA actually shows a continued streak of outperformance.

Yes the stock overall has shown strength since it hit it's low. The company has also posted amazing earnings. So I expect more than just some moderate strength against the macro's. The icing on the cake today is that GM posted a 40% drop in YoY profits and yet TSLA is down more than them today.

 

[MartinAustin]

Something to do with Tesla... something to do with the stock... I dunno... it's Electrek, maybe I shouldn't post it

Tesla (TSLA) is launching a new shareholder platform to manage its large investor base

Tesla (TSLA) is launching today a new shareholder platform to manage its large investor base and allow them to participate...

electrek.co

 

[henchman24]

TSLA capped as macro's start their recovery........gee where have we seen this before?

Look I'm just pointing out that TSLA isn't primed for some big breakout anytime soon. I completely agree that MM's are naked shorting the stock to hit stop loss orders as much as they can. The stock is clearly in solid control by MM's. Just like time after time for the past 6 months, any strong outperformance by TSLA is successfully capped and then walked right back down after only 1-2 days of outperformance. I'll stop complaining when TSLA actually shows a continued streak of outperformance.

Yes the stock overall has shown strength since it hit it's low. The company has also posted amazing earnings. So I expect more than just some moderate strength against the macro's. The icing on the cake today is that GM posted a 40% drop in YoY profits and yet TSLA is down more than them today.

We just had a big breakout last week against macro headwinds.... it is a rarity to not have a pullback after that. It is a rarity to not have a pullback on really any breakout as there is a bunch of profit taking. Only yesterday did Tesla re-enter the high range of the 20 day BB and the current mid point is 730. We have also reached 3 weeks of being above the midpoint with has happened only one other time this year (March/April run). The stock isn't just going to go up and up and up in this market. Too many things are happening that limit how much buying pressure there is in this market.

I just really don't get this argument of only moderate strength. Even with today's drop... we're talking 23% vs 2.7% since Tesla's low. That simply isn't just moderate strength, that's gigantic strength. Since you brought in GM here... in that same timeframe they are down 7%. Apple is only up 9.7%. Tesla has been one of the strongest stocks in the market for the past two months.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I gather from lack of people online, the others are either covering like mad or think price is dropping more, so nobody’s buying? Falling knife? Remember?

 

[elasalle]

Time to add some Nov Calls (and close on the swing back up) ~ cheers!!

binary events:
Fed meeting - this week
Tesla Share Holder conf and likely stock split decision - next week Aug 4th
+July CPI - inflation peaked ? - Aug 10th - 2weeks
AI Day
revised Credit rating?

 

[Singuy]

1. Distance is only 60 meters
2. Angle is 120 degrees

View attachment 832990

View attachment 832987

The angle information is useful, but I'll take the distance with a grain of salt as Tesla is optimizing all the hardware beyond their initial rated specs. As they transition to photon vision, any useful information going into the lens will be utilized.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We just had a big breakout last week against macro headwinds.... it is a rarity to not have a pullback after that. It is a rarity to not have a pullback on really any breakout as there is a bunch of profit taking. Only yesterday did Tesla re-enter the high range of the 20 day BB and the current mid point is 730. We have also reached 3 weeks of being above the midpoint with has happened only one other time this year (March/April run). The stock isn't just going to go up and up and up in this market. Too many things are happening that limit how much buying pressure there is in this market.

I just really don't get this argument of only moderate strength. Even with today's drop... we're talking 23% vs 2.7% since Tesla's low. That simply isn't just moderate strength, that's gigantic strength. Since you brought in GM here... in that same timeframe they are down 7%. Apple is only up 9.7%. Tesla has been one of the strongest stocks in the market for the past two months.

For me, the context is what matters. Has Tesla shown strength since hitting it's low? Yes

Tesla has posted earnings back in April that were a massive beat. Tesla then posted earnings for Q2 that were also a big beat. Meanwhile…..the vast majority of the stocks out there are posting anemic growth compared to Tesla’s.

Put it this way. I’ll stop complaining when Tesla’s forward P/E is at least double something like Amazon’s……so either TSLA needs to be up another 30% or Amazon need to drop another 30% (I"m using Amazon as an example but there's plenty of other examples out there across the market)

 

[insaneoctane]

With your forum name, I didn't expect anything different.
However, it makes me wonder what for example @insaneoctane would do.
But pretty sure what @The Accountant will do: make an extremely well calculated decision.

Obviously I'd stab the accelerator and not even slow down at that stupid center divider for a victorious merge due to superior Tesla acceleration!

Honestly, I think the hardest part about this UPLT is the narrow coverage the center divider offers your vehicle from traffic. Otherwise it's just timing. Either way, having this edge case solved in the NN ought to help many other easier versions IMO.

 

[henchman24]

For me, the context is what matters. Has Tesla shown strength since hitting it's low? Yes

Tesla has posted earnings back in April that were a massive beat. Tesla then posted earnings for Q2 that were also a big beat. Meanwhile…..the vast majority of the stocks out there are posting anemic growth compared to Tesla’s.

Put it this way. I’ll stop complaining when Tesla’s forward P/E is at least double something like Amazon’s……so either TSLA needs to be up another 30% or Amazon need to drop another 30%.

Context also matters... Elon selling a crap load of shares and leaving more uncertainty on the table in April and May destroyed the stock for 6+ weeks.

Amazon... they are still a darling, but cracks are there with Jassy. Market is still trying to figure him out. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them drop to the 30 PE within the next year if the shine wears off. If he shows growth in high margin areas they are moving into, we could see that also happen in a different way though... through earnings skyrocketing. Expecting a double of arguably the most darling growth stock of the past decade seems like an impossible bar. A key to happiness is reasonable expectations.

 

[2daMoon]

Imagine a factory line where there needs to be 50 bodies with arms doing something. If you can go to 25 bots and 25 humans interleaved you've doubled the distance between workers.

OK they aren't evenly spaced down the line. You have 3 people leaning into or standing inside the body at once now. Switch that to 2 bots and 1 human and you have no close interaction for biological viruses.

Let the human supervise the bots, give every human one or two bots to manage and you can space the humans out and still get more work done (assuming the bots can work as well as a human).

Even if you have to start with one bot per human that prevents Repetitive Strain Injuries (RSI). Later when you don't need to monitor the bots so closely you can increase the ratio and get the distancing of humans you want.

I'm sure there will be rough spots but I like the concept.

Imagine these robots being organized as members of the A.U.R.A. Local 420 (American Union of Robot Autoworkers) to satisfy those who are still yammering for Union autoworkers!

Imagine AI robots tasking their Union to fight for:

• Longer Hours
• Higher Efficiency
• Charging Rights
• Upgrades

B_A_F

 

[dhanson865]

Something to do with Tesla... something to do with the stock... I dunno... it's Electrek, maybe I shouldn't post it

Tesla (TSLA) is launching a new shareholder platform to manage its large investor base

Tesla (TSLA) is launching today a new shareholder platform to manage its large investor base and allow them to participate...

electrek.co

I was hoping (irrationally) that Fredtrek would list the URL because my work and home PCs block t.co links from twitter.

I was able to suss that it is trying to take me to tesla.com/teslaaccount/subscription-preferences but I haven't seen any Say or Plaid option.

I do have "Shareholder Status
Your verification submission has been received." but I haven't received any email about it.

 

[betstarship]

Just a thought: a person really has to be a real moron to be anti averting climate change at this point, right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

so either TSLA needs to be up another 30% or Amazon need to drop another 30%.

...or both drop 30%, but only TSLA rises post crash, then starts its own wall street called "Open Street". Who knows.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Context also matters... Elon selling a crap load of shares and leaving more uncertainty on the table in April and May destroyed the stock for 6+ weeks.

Amazon... they are still a darling, but cracks are there with Jassy. Market is still trying to figure him out. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them drop to the 30 PE within the next year if the shine wears off. If he shows growth in high margin areas they are moving into, we could see that also happen in a different way though... through earnings skyrocketing. Expecting a double of arguably the most darling growth stock of the past decade seems like an impossible bar. A key to happiness is reasonable expectations.

It's not just Amazon, I could point to stock after stock after stock that have P/E mutliples, Forward P/E mutliples, price to sales multiples, and so on........that fundamentally make zero sense with TSLA being at the valuation it's currently at.

So again, either Tesla needs to go up at least 30% right now or most of the market need to take a 30% haircut. Otherwise, I consider TSLA's valuation to be a joke today, tomorrow, next week, and next month until that dynamic changes.

I chose not to give Wall St an "out" for their obvious shenanigans by saying "But Elon did this or that!".

 

[henchman24]

It's not just Amazon, I could point to stock after stock after stock that have P/E mutliples, Forward P/E mutliples, price to sales multiples, and so on........that fundamentally make zero sense with TSLA being at the valuation it's currently at.

So again, either Tesla needs to go up at least 30% right now or most of the market need to take a 30% haircut. Otherwise, I consider TSLA's valuation to be a joke today, tomorrow, next week, and next month until that dynamic changes.

I chose not to give Wall St an "out" for their obvious shenanigans by saying "But Elon did this or that!".

The bears of Tesla will argue that a 100 pe stock is an absurd valuation. FTR I disagree with that sentiment, but 100 PE and 70 forward PE is traditionally a pretty rich valuation by many standards. I don't know off hand, but Tesla has to be about double and at least 30% higher TTM PE valuation wise than any other company in the top 20 by market cap. My personal philosophy of investing is finding market inefficiencies and where I think they are wrong. I think forward PE for Tesla is a great example as I'm at ~43 now. The market overall disagrees with my sentiment, which gives me an opportunity to make a good chunk of money if they are wrong.

You can't discount the Elon selling from the share price though. Simple supply and demand with the shares. Elon put a lot of shares out there where there were not enough buyers at the price... the float got raised and there are simply more shares out there for a limited number of buyers. That's a very simple supply and demand issue.

 

[Singuy]

It's not just Amazon, I could point to stock after stock after stock that have P/E mutliples, Forward P/E mutliples, price to sales multiples, and so on........that fundamentally make zero sense with TSLA being at the valuation it's currently at.

So again, either Tesla needs to go up at least 30% right now or most of the market need to take a 30% haircut. Otherwise, I consider TSLA's valuation to be a joke today, tomorrow, next week, and next month until that dynamic changes.

I chose not to give Wall St an "out" for their obvious shenanigans by saying "But Elon did this or that!".

I have come to the conclusion that Tesla has a lot of "discounting" factor because the future is unclear and most wall street analysts and fund managers err on the side of caution. This is why only 7% of major fund managers that track the S&P has Tesla in their portfolio.

Tesla bulls assume that the market for a 50k car is infinite despite any macro headwinds, that the competition will never come, that legacy auto will most likely go bankrupt, that robotaxies are around the corner, and optimus will change the world.

However fund managers are being more and more conservative by the day due to macro headwinds, fed uncertainty, war uncertainty, and this being a bear market. It's hard for big money to assume what the bulls assume. Big new changing the world type companies rise and fall all the time, and during conservative times, they look more to what happened to companies like AOL or Netscape than to companies like Apple. In their minds when the competition is here from China, from legacy auto, from some guy who built cars out of a garage...wherever, Tesla growth and margin stalls and may even be disrupted. So they will not assume 20M cars by 2030 and our transportation transformed by Tesla's robotaxi network, or CAGR of 50%. They will take it quarter by quarter, year by year. And on every conference call they will ask about demand and any hint of it softening will play into their bias that no automaker ever has infinite demand for a 50k+ car.

 

[traxila]

Volume is so light everything about the PM and tomorrow with the FED.

I think they are locked in at 75 basis points. They basically announced this in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago. The market has this priced in.

If the PM earnings for GOOG and MSFT are OK and, most important, forward guidance is good and the FED interview shows a softening of hawkishness (which it should, IMO) so that market can expect 50 basis points or less going forward, I expect a nice rally.

After that, catalyst for TSLA (of course, stock moves when it wants to anyway) would be July production in China. If that number comes in healthy despite retooling shutdowns, watch out.

Then the all important ( ) July CPI on August 10.