InTheShadows
Active Member
And the feds are talking today.Don't get too excited. It's been like 20 minutes....
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And the feds are talking today.Don't get too excited. It's been like 20 minutes....
So we don't know what's going to happen this year, so we better lay off some workers to be proactive, (which causes more doubt in the system)...then later in the year "see, we knew there would be a recession!"More Layoffs
Goldman Sachs will lay off as many as 3,200 employees this week as an uncertain economic and market climate pushes the bank to hunt for cost savings, according to a person familiar with the matter.
I'm actually impressed how fast some of these big companies does it.Why does it take nearly a month to calculate finances every quarter? Um, Excel... macro?
Do people actually use computers in Finance, or still manual data entry? Or is it all the freakin paperwork to file with the Feds? Wait... maybe it's so companies have at least 3 weeks to tweak the message and spin the data. This is a non-value added step to production, what's the deal? Maybe Tesla should look into this waste.
I get it, I'm married to a Master Planner. Corporate numbers are complicated. But that's because it STILL involves humans even in a perfect SRP candy world.Management typically has a near instantaneous view of what's happening with respect to business and finances. However, it is an entirely different matter to present the information to investors. One of these days, it might be instructional to pick up and read some quarterly or annual reports that drop soon after earnings. There is also liability and reputational risk if these are not done right. So there is rightfully, there are several checks and balances in place.
It is clearly not some small business where you can tally up all your revenue and expenses in a couple of hours.
edit: I hope @The Accountant doesnt blow a gasket looking at your comment.
Do y'all know him? Inventor of Keras, foundational to TF, competes with PyTorch, what ChatGPT is built on...can you see where this is going?
Just the F150. The CT is not a 3/4 or 1 ton truck. However, the F150 is the top seller.Does CT replace just the F-150, or the whole Ford F series ?
Seems more truck models are needed if they want to go after the whole truck segment?
If only Castro was alive to see the biggest game of “Simon says” in history.Going from “zero covid” to “covid everywhere” Is a very different experience for a country than going from “covid everywhere” to “even more covid everywhere“.
All good points, Gigapress, and superior manufacturing may enable Tesla to reap higher margins. But superior enough to maintain 30% margins going forward against a ramping competitor? 20% ? Lower?At what margins? The fact is we have no idea what BYD earns on the Seal, if anything at all, and we have no idea what it looks like underneath until somebody rips one apart and posts it on the internet.
Tesla’s CEO has emphasized that manufacturing will be Tesla’s long-term competitive advantage. Not even autonomous driving; manufacturing. This is therefore mainly what investors should be focused on when comparing to the competitors.
For example, does BYD have any of the following?
If credible news comes out that BYD is rapidly catching up in these areas, I will need to seriously reevaluate my TSLA investment thesis. As of now I’m aware of zero evidence that this is the case. In the meantime, could we really expect BYD would survive a price war with Tesla? The fact that they haven’t disclosed their gross margins on their pure BEVs is not a good sign in my opinion.
- Front and rear gigacastings
- Fully structural battery pack, building up half the cabin on top of it before even mating it with the body-in-white
- Crazy-low part count in general
- Octovalve, tiny high-output heat pump, extremely integrated thermal management system
- Custom power electronics
- Amazingly few meters of wiring and few contacts
- Best motor cost to performance ratio in the industry
- A factory on par with Giga Shanghai making 1M+ cars per year at more than 30% gross margin in a small footprint (let alone a factory on par with Gigas Berlin and Texas)
The Rivian, for instance, is a nice, luxurious, capable electric truck with features and styling aesthetics that lots of people like. Yet it’s hard to build affordably and the company is bleeding money like it’s going out of style. I look at the Seal and the Atto the same way until seeing evidence otherwise. Prototypes are easy but production and design for manufacturability are hard.
Another article from a top-notch strategy analyst. This one is regarding AI and the big tech companies:
AI and the Big Five
Given the success of existing companies with new epochs, the most obvious place to start when thinking about the impact of AI is with the big five: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.stratechery.com
...still don't understand where this is going, though I'm surprised Dojo and Tesla has no place in this article. To me, it's like everyone in tech vs. Musk Enterprises?
That kind of stuff drives me insane as both an investor, and a coder. The difference between 'a general solution to AI-powered driving' and 'heavily limited and geofenced and speed-restricted and weather restricted 'self-driving' for this 10 meter path of perfect road' is just ridiculous.Interesting headline on Mercedes getting there L3 approval in Nevada. Not so much when you dig into it a bit. Lots of comments on various threads indicating how they beat tesla to level 3 blah blah blah. Ugh.
Mercedes Is The First Automaker To Offer Level 3 Self-Driving In The US
At CES 2023, Mercedes announced that its Drive Pilot system has been approved by the state of Nevada for Level 3 autonomous driving.insideevs.com
I'm a bad one to ask. I'm aware of how important the numbers are but it's frustrating seeing so much effort going into a non-productive activity. Probably why I'm not a finance guy.What's everyone's definition of waste here? Maybe we're not on the same page - I'm just a Factory guy.
+1 I've been banging that drum for a while. Seems like a win/win for all involved. Show off Tesla's ability, save the city money, and make Boring tunnels even cheaper vs conventional systems.That being said (to quote rob maurer)
I would like to see the boring company switch to true driverless in the las vegas loop. It feels like something that would be super easy to do, and would be a huge PR win for Tesla in the minds of people who don't pay attention to this stuff. Plus a great bit of general marketing and PR and will give the average joe confidence in Teslas ultimate FSD goal.
I'd love to see someone on the Q4 call ask Elon why they don't do this.
I would like to see the boring company switch to true driverless in the las vegas loop. <snip>... I'd love to see someone on the Q4 call ask Elon why they don't do this.
I'm a bad one to ask. I'm aware of how important the numbers are but it's frustrating seeing so much effort going into a non-productive activity. Probably why I'm not a finance guy.
+1 I've been banging that drum for a while. Seems like a win/win for all involved. Show off Tesla's ability, save the city money, and make Boring tunnels even cheaper vs conventional systems.
Tesla's big problem is momentum .... when people were optimistic, the sky was the limit for this company. Unfortunately, people are far less optimistic about everything right now and momentum stocks tend to get crushed, as we have. There is no arguing that momentum played a HUGE part in getting TSLA to it's ATH.Tesla, as a company, is on fire. 40% growth YOY in a year that was incredibly tough for many reasons is astonishing. The product ramp and offerings are simply off the chart good and that just taking into account it's vehicles. Cybertruck is going to provide a brand new revenue stream as I'm convinced that it will NOT cannabalize too much of the existing ModelY or Model3 customers and actually many, with the available buying power, will have both.
Tesla's big problem is momentum .... when people were optimistic, the sky was the limit for this company. Unfortunately, people are far less optimistic about everything right now and momentum stocks tend to get crushed, as we have. There is no arguing that momentum played a HUGE part in getting TSLA to it's ATH.
I'm just hoping there are enough catalysts in the next few months to keep TSLA from falling much further and hopefully even finding some footing a few $$ above where we are now. I do NOT expect this stock to reach the ATH for several years at this point. I am fairly confident that we will reach the ATH's again at some point .... so I'll remain clinging to all of my shares and hoping for the best. Fortunately for me, my time horizon is long and I don't need any of this money for a while .... it still hurts as looking at our portfolio balance is something that causes much pain right now.
In a nutshell, TSLA's short term SP is probably out of Tesla's hands .... inflation numbers and FED reaction are probably more important than even FSD developments, production numbers, margins etc .... for now anyway.
I've been investing for close to 25 years now and I've always heard the phrase "You can't fight the FED" .... I guess I'm a bit slow but I get it now. Hopefully I'll take this lesson and sometime in the future it will save me the grief I'm experiencing now. Fed was raising rates and it was obvious that they had many raises in their strategy and I did absolutely nothing to protect my portfolio. Never again.
Cheers to the longs .....
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I would like to see the boring company switch to true driverless in the las vegas loop....
Maybe that's what the 9000 ton is for in Austin?9000-ton IDRA press going to Asia? Some speculation it’s for a 1-piece casting for the sub-compact:
"ready for shipping on its way to Asia."9000-ton IDRA press going to Asia? Some speculation it’s for a 1-piece casting for the sub-compact:
Because Tesla is currently the sole vehicle supplier to the Boring Company?Because The Boring Company is owned by Elon, not by Tesla? Why would Tesla answer a question about a private company on their company's earnings call?