Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You know which other words didn't appear in the Investors Letter or Earnings Call? -- "drag on margins" from Berlin or Texas. Going forward, both those 2 Model Y lines should be considered mature, and their gross margin contributions should approximate the levels we saw for the company as a whole before the production ramps started at Berlin and Austin 2 years ago.
Any body recall what auto gross margins were in Q1 '22 vs. Q2? That's the natural difference in g.m. I expect going forward, IMO. Sure the absolute number will be lower now due to pricing, interest, yada but the step-change is what I'm after -- what was the decrease in g.m. strictly due to the ramp, and what should we expect it to increase by now that the ramp is mostly done? Note that some of this may be baked into the Q4'23 g.m. increase already.
Of course, I expect both Berlin and Austin to produce at their nominal capacity in 2024: 750K Model Y Berlin+Austin, 560K Fremont, 1.1M Shanghai, CT's a variable (my previous est was 80<CT<120K). Est'd 2024 Tesla production is therefore: 2,510K +/- 20K #predict
So in summary: higher margins, full production, increased profit. Imma call it right now: record year for Tesla in 2024.
Cheers!
Any body recall what auto gross margins were in Q1 '22 vs. Q2? That's the natural difference in g.m. I expect going forward, IMO. Sure the absolute number will be lower now due to pricing, interest, yada but the step-change is what I'm after -- what was the decrease in g.m. strictly due to the ramp, and what should we expect it to increase by now that the ramp is mostly done? Note that some of this may be baked into the Q4'23 g.m. increase already.
Of course, I expect both Berlin and Austin to produce at their nominal capacity in 2024: 750K Model Y Berlin+Austin, 560K Fremont, 1.1M Shanghai, CT's a variable (my previous est was 80<CT<120K). Est'd 2024 Tesla production is therefore: 2,510K +/- 20K #predict
So in summary: higher margins, full production, increased profit. Imma call it right now: record year for Tesla in 2024.
Cheers!