It's funny how many of us missed it, (congrats to those who correctly predicted "No guidance"). I can't seem to reveal who voted what, but thinking you (
@Artful Dodger) were in the 2.5M camp (or did you change your mind?).
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The controversy around this topic today shows me that many dislike stretch goals (even pie in the sky possibilities that help to open up possibilities among the myopic views). Their views are valid but also conservative in a non-conservative company... and not how Elon operates.
Sky is the limit with Tesla - this is a fact they have done the impossible already. In fact, 3M in '24 is actually possible (obviously with .001% probability). Maybe the hyperbolic comments are not so hyperbolic with Tesla, which is NOT Apple or Amazon.
Please consider this when making statements like "0% possibility" or "No way". These comments are even more unrealistic IMHO, borderline patronizing those folks with views that are actually possible.
So it might help in the future to clarify confidence levels. I'm more carefully choosing my own words to describe future states, just because people are so triggered, yes triggered by anything out of the ordinary. And yet Tesla is anything but.
So I'm still with 2.5M for the mission (with ~ 60% confidence), as unlikely as this sounds to most people here. Further, for the trigger people, I think RoboVehicle (not-a-Taxi) is also possible this year with ~5% confidence in a generalized launch, and 25% confidence for a location or use case specific launch. Maybe this type of clarification would help - instead of "Your wrong" etc...