According to Elon, volume production is 5,000 per week.What constitutes volume production?
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According to Elon, volume production is 5,000 per week.What constitutes volume production?
Yes, when you have a highly custom chip that has high run rates with a multi-year contract, there is a high likelihood you'll find efficiencies that require changes to fab line machines and processes for future chips. Usually that involves new IP and usually that IP stays with the 1st party (think nVidia holding IP vs TSMC) for an exclusive period of time then the fab can implement/license that IP or just buy it outright.Could you expand on this? Are you saying Dojo will push Tesla to try to influence how TSMC designs and builds their next fabrication plant?
When general advertising happens, if it does, it is a signal that the deep dedication to cost effectiveness, efficiency and waste avoidance has ended.
Some googling suggest Tesla sold 650k cars in the US in 2023. Some people guess FSD take rate is 19%. I am assuming that even given no more progress, FSD V12 doubles that over time.
so 123,500 extra FSD purchases per year, for revenue (its $12k now right?) of $1.48 billion a year. The marginal cost of sales here is virtually zero.
Thats almost exactly 10% of profit for 2023. That assumes FSD is never improved outside the US.
Given demand for FSD in Europe, China etc, I think 2025 is going to be the year we really see FSD hit the financials in a notable way. Luckily between now and then we have growth in profits from energy, and also the cybertruck and semi ramp.
Of course if FSD 13 comes along and is genuinely end-to-end no intervention for 99.999% of drives, then all bets are off and its robotaxi time, but WAY before that I expect FSD to become a huge driver of sales for people cross-shopping between EV brands.
I bought that GM vehicle back in 2017. I needed a new car (old one died). And I wanted to go electric. Model 3 was just starting to ramp so I didn't think I could get my hands on one.Rinse and repeat lesson for OEMs right there. I remember the GM headlines about beating Tesla to market with the $35k vehicle. By a WHOLE year! How did that turn out?
I don't think there will be an FSD 13. Can't tempt fate. Better they skip to FSD 14.Of course if FSD 13 comes along and is genuinely end-to-end no intervention for 99.999% of drives, then all bets are off and its robotaxi time, but WAY before that I expect FSD to become a huge driver of sales for people cross-shopping between EV brands.
There are some here (including me) who have argued there will be no noticeable increase in the take rate until either the price comes down or FSD is so good you can take a nap.Of course if FSD 13 comes along and is genuinely end-to-end no intervention for 99.999% of drives, then all bets are off and its robotaxi time, but WAY before that I expect FSD to become a huge driver of sales for people cross-shopping between EV brands.
It’s not about giving in to the bullies, it’s about letting the bullies eat each other alive.No, I do not want to see Telsa paying any protection money. You don't give the bully your lunch money. You punch the bully until they learn to leave you alone.
If I might.....it seems to me that what you fear is what I see every day as I watch the NCAA basketball tournament.I have HODLing for a decade. The General Advertising is a trigger in spite of all the product, finance and manufacturing prowess TSLA has. Why, you ask. That is an excellent question.
When general advertising happens, if it does, it is a signal that the deep dedication to cost effectiveness, efficiency and waste avoidance has ended. Other disasters then happen.
With other things such as FSD, Gigapress, Octovalve, etc have happened they all happened because the opportunity to do something unprecedented and make a major advance justified the risk and uncertain timing of results. I approve of that.
With general advertising there is no probability of payback simply because it has no path to increased efficiency. The counter argument is to demeaning price decreases as wasteful when those directly increase the qualified buyer capacity to buy. Regularly Elon and Tesla explain that, not a demand problem but a capacity to buy problem. General advertising has no such direct link is large infrequently purchased products.
In short, people decide to buy a house or a car. They then begin to gather information and look for what they choose to buy. Some look not at all, because they've pre-decided. Those sometimes will change timing based on price or terms. Nothing in that process benefits from general advertising.
There are some here (including me) who have argued there will be no noticeable increase in the take rate until either the price comes down or FSD is so good you can take a nap.
But you do make an interesting counter-argument here. Even if you don't have the money to buy FSD or you just don't think it's worth the price, you might still buy the Tesla over another brand because of FSD.
If I'm shopping for a car, I might want the one that is at least FSD-capable.
Already disproven, as I've seen others having a similar reaction as me to 'Supervised.' As to whether it makes a significant difference now, well, that's a different proposition. Tesla made the bed they're in, and now they lie in it. My comment related to naming it better from the start, which is not a possibility on the table in 2024, eight years after the FSD name debuted.Not even true a little bit. You watch how the word supervised makes zero difference to the new crop of FSD triers, or the resultant media headlines etc… Not even an itty bitty bit of difference.
I mentioned this several pages back. Rumor had it that Ford would first license FSD/HW from Tesla. I still think this will happen.This is why I think Elon is willing to cut margins on the cars to scary low levels. While everyone is worried about Tesla's car margins this year hurting profitability (and it will), Elon just wants to sell as many cars as possible because each car on the road is a potential sale of FSD once it proves out. He's creating a massive market for software margins of 90%+ by lowering the auto margins.
Short term it looks bad on the fundamentals, but long term it will likely prove out to be a brilliant forward looking decision. Given how good FSD v12 is and how fast it seems to be improving now, we may be close to the FSD turning point. I'd say within the next year or two is extremely likely.
I also find it interesting how Ford is currently designing a car with robotaxi potential, yet Ford is not working on autonomy. Given how Elon has stated at least one major OEM is working with Tesla to get FSD, it makes me very curious if FSD sales & revenues will not only be from Tesla owners but possibly other OEMS like Ford as well. The market for FSD sales might be larger than most people are thinking right now.
We never pay any-one Dane-geld,It’s not about giving in to the bullies, it’s about letting the bullies eat each other alive.
So, maybe you just answered the Ford Lightning (sp? ) issue?I bought that GM vehicle back in 2017. I needed a new car (old one died). And I wanted to go electric. Model 3 was just starting to ramp so I didn't think I could get my hands on one.
It turned out fine for me overall. The Bolt performed well and it was fun to drive. But it wasn't long before I was complaining on the Bolt forums that the Bolt had no future if they didn't at least try to compete with Tesla on range and other features. Of course, I was told how wrong I was. They even tried to tell me how much better it was to go to a dealership to get a software update.
It was clear that Tesla was moving fast and GM wasn't moving at all. Since then I've bought 3 Teslas and never looked back.
Everybody who bothered to click ‘yes’ to the permission screen in the first place knew it was ‘supervised’.Already disproven, as I've seen others having a similar reaction as me to 'Supervised.' As to whether it makes a significant difference now, well, that's a different proposition. Tesla made the bed they're in, and now they lie in it. My comment related to naming it better from the start, which is not a possibility on the table in 2024, eight years after the FSD name debuted.
Yeah, the more I think about it the more I think this makes sense. Jim Farley gets it. And we know there is a skunk-works project happening at Ford that sounds a lot like Tesla's Gen 3. What if part of that project includes licensing FSD from Tesla?I mentioned this several pages back. Rumor had it that Ford would first license FSD/HW from Tesla. I still think this will happen.
The difference is that most other car companies are pretty generic, so generic advertising works for them because they don't have any actual features that are better than others.This is completely wrong. Do you REALLY think every single car company on the planet is wasting their time? That despite spending billion over decades on advertising, nobody thought to look into its effectiveness?
The generic advertising is the relentless nudging of people to buy a new vehicle.The difference is that most other car companies are pretty generic, so generic advertising works for them because they don't have any actual features that are better than others.