Where is Leo making all his money from?
I dream of buying so much TSLA annually
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I dream of buying so much TSLA annually
He must be using his time machine for sports betting. Clearly he wasn't using it for stock investments this year.
Autonomy for the Semi may be on a totally different software stack due to the complex turning radius, extra cameras, and acceleration/stopping distance. Just speculating but I don't believe HW4 will introduce a new sensor when they have talked extensively how they can train NN+cameras to be better than any sensor. Maybe the HD radar is not for any product, or for a product we don't know about.
That was my thought as well. I guess it was included because it is a delivery vehicle and Amazon advertises a lot on NBC ;-)Is Amazon van a rig?
How wrong you are. They are very loyal, trash talk others about truck brands etc. remember many of these trucks go 3 million miles, they spend more time in the truck than at home. Not that it matters , Tesla will only make 50m a year and that will go to fleet buyers mostly and they don’t care as much.
It appears that at least part of Troy's story doesn't hold water. Some of the discounts are only for people that already have orders, i.e. cars that are sold, but they didn't get delivered in November, and the discount is only good for another three days.
Troy? Spread misinformation? Nah…..no way he would do that
Also a likely reason why the weekly registration data came in soft for the past week. If you check the other ev makers, everyone experienced a material dip in deliveries. Which means the culprit was the lockdowns
Tesla's insurance promotion in China was ¥8,000 between 8-30 November and ¥4,000 between 1-31 December.
Starting from 7 Dec in China Tesla is offering an additional ¥6,000 discount. They call this Superimposed Discount to emphasize that it's on top of the other discounts. Buyers who placed an order before Dec 1st but have not taken delivery yet will get the ¥8,000 Yuan insurance discount plus the ¥6,000 Yuan new discount. So, that's ¥14,000 Yuan ($2,005) in total. However, they have to take delivery by 10 Dec.
Orders from December 1st will get ¥4,000 insurance discount plus the ¥6,000 Yuan new discount, so ¥10,000 Yuan ($1,432) in total. Tesla recommends taking delivery by 23 Dec. There is a news article here: Tesla offers new discount for buying inventory cars in China
In addition, buyers also get a ¥11,088 Yuan ($1,588) government subsidy for EVs which ends on 31 Dec.
Based on my calculation, Tesla China had 21,300 cars in inventory at the end of November. This is inventory left in China after exports are shipped. We are able to calculate the exact inventory numbers because CPCA releases Tesla China production, delivery, and export numbers.
Inventory = production - deliveries - exports.
The calculation goes back all the way to Jan 2020 when Giga Shanghai first started production. In other words, to calculate the 21,300 number, you have to calculate all the monthly inventory changes since Jan 2020.
The drop in insurance registrations was related to the spike and then the slowdown of orders after the 24 Oct price cut. Many buyers were waiting for the price cut so when Tesla dropped prices on 24 Oct, a lot of buyers decided to take delivery. It took a few weeks until Tesla cleared that backlog and once they cleared it, registrations dropped to a lower number. That's the reason why today's insurance number was low.
Starting from 7 Dec in China Tesla is offering an additional ¥6,000 discount. They call this Superimposed Discount to emphasize that it's on top of the other discounts. Buyers who placed an order before Dec 1st but have not taken delivery yet will get the ¥8,000 Yuan insurance discount plus the ¥6,000 Yuan new discount. So, that's ¥14,000 Yuan ($2,005) in total. However, they have to take delivery by 10 Dec.
Orders from December 1st will get ¥4,000 insurance discount plus the ¥6,000 Yuan new discount, so ¥10,000 Yuan ($1,432) in total. Tesla recommends taking delivery by 23 Dec. There is a news article here: Tesla offers new discount for buying inventory cars in China
In addition, buyers also get a ¥11,088 Yuan ($1,588) government subsidy for EVs which ends on 31 Dec.
Based on my calculation, Tesla China had 21,300 cars in inventory at the end of November. This is inventory left in China after exports are shipped. We are able to calculate the exact inventory numbers because CPCA releases Tesla China production, delivery, and export numbers.
Inventory = production - deliveries - exports.
The calculation goes back all the way to Jan 2020 when Giga Shanghai first started production. In other words, to calculate the 21,300 number, you have to calculate all the monthly inventory changes since Jan 2020.
The drop in insurance registrations was related to the spike and then the slowdown of orders after the 24 Oct price cut. Many buyers were waiting for the price cut so when Tesla dropped prices on 24 Oct, a lot of buyers decided to take delivery. It took a few weeks until Tesla cleared that backlog and once they cleared it, registrations dropped to a lower number. That's the reason why today's insurance number was low.
Why is this important?
Seems to me that with official financial reports being produced every quarter, we get a detailed official update on what is definitely happening and the actual numbers every 3 months.
Anyone small movement in margins and market share in one market may be offset by movements elsewhere.
Higher sales volumes and revenues can always offset any slight margin reduction.
You don't appreciate a fine work of art by staring intensely at the bottom left corner with a magnifying glass, true that might add value, but only in the context of the total work.
There are a number of short term issues with the Chinese economy at present.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Hey Troy!
You do know we have a guy on this forum that doesn't like when someone posts conclusions based on what they BELIEVE instead of what they KNOW. I don't think he'll be very impressed by your last paragraph.
You do know we have a guy on this forum that doesn't like when someone posts conclusions based on what they BELIEVE instead of what they KNOW. I don't think he'll be very impressed by your last paragraph.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Why do you think Semi will mostly go to fleet buyers?
Rob also mentioned on his podcast today that the weekly insurance number drop in china matches what he had expected would happen from the price cut demand surge and then leveling back off to a steady state rate, and that once next weeks numbers are in it would be more clear if that is indeed the case.
For what it's worth, I loved the distance setting on my radar-equipped model s. There clearly was a difference between a 5 and 7 and 3. Now, having had 20k miles with vision-only model 3, i have set it on 7 almost permanently. In my observation of 1, radar was better than the _current state_ wide release fsd beta when it comes to distance keeping. In a passenger car, breaks are more than adequate, but in a semi, the stakes are so much higher! Plus, I recon they have figured out radar-induced phantom breaking....
MartinAustin
Active Member
Something is certainly going on. I looked at the several hundred New Inventory cars on sale across the USA. All of them have either Base or Enhanced Autopilot. Not a single brand-new car comes with FSD. A couple of weeks ago, most of them had FSD.
I wonder, if asked to upgrade a new car order so that it has FSD... Tesla will say yes or no.
I wonder, if asked to upgrade a new car order so that it has FSD... Tesla will say yes or no.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
He is founder of this company. Worldwide and many large customers. They also sponsor the Rutgers stadium.
I don't think he has an active role at the company at this point but he is non executive chairman.
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Wait what's the production number for Nov? Did I miss this?
petit_bateau
Active Member
It is thought that some of the phantom-braking events were caused by the 'vertical stripe' nature of the radars that were previously in use, so that (say) a bridge over the road would be interpreted as an object on the road. I had previously speculated that shifting to an AESA-style radar which gives the height dimension as well would allow that issue to be addressed. This was at the point where an AESA-style radar was being released to the vehicle market by one vendor.
However that was not at the time adopted by Tesla and instead, at much the same time Tesla chose to go vision-only. My memory is that Tesla's rationale for going vision-only was that the update frequency from vision was far higher than from radar. This led to a lot of problems integrating the two data streams. That explanation fitted OK with similar issues that are well known in other areas - for example integrating returns from multiple radars with varying characteristics, locations, communications-sharing latencies, etc. and so was a very plausible explanation. (An additional benefit was - I think - reported as the power reduction, and of course the cost reduction, and a minor mass reduction).
If Tesla are now going to add back a radar then they must think they have solved that update frequency problem. (And that the advantages of having a radar outweigh the cost/power/mass penalties).
A characteristic of more advanced AESA-style radars is that they can "track-whilst-scan" and the frequency of observing different parts of the world can be different. This could be very useful in some circumstances.
Even if Tesla have chosen to set aside radar in use for the time being that does not necessarily mean Tesla are not continuing to pursue R&D in that area, and that radars (or whatever) might one day return to the sensor mix. I've no idea if that is what is going on with this rumour, but it is interesting.
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Personally I don't think it that likely there would be two different software stacks for the different vehicles. It is of course possible, but it is not that attractive from a software maintenance/development perspective. Just imho. We have seen in the past that the sofware has the capability of accepting a variety of sensor locations, and a wide spread of body sizes and shapes. So Tesla built-in the ability for one software stack to be delivered to a multiplicity of vehicles.
Economics , they are requiring big deposits, wait time is long. Charging stations require industrial locations with 3phase. Many small truck companies are located away from industrial zoning on purpose and few are going to Have access.
So too much upfront costs and they don’t have equipment yards to charge. It is going to be a terrible thing for many small companies as the truck fleet, knowledge and mechanical know how, and equipment yards are much of their wealth.
I think the semi is the most important thing Tesla can do right now but it is going to destroy some small trucking firms and bankrupt many. Semi is a complete game changer due to fuel costs and the fleets will move. Might take a long time, 5-10 , years to move the long distance fleet but most trucks run local routes in a 200 mile area.
Of course this requires 50k run rate. It also has a battery implication in that the packs are 2170 packs- 1 MW each. Does that equal most of the production capacity of Reno? If so it is evidence that maybe they have 4680 figured out. Each semi is what, 15 model3s? The new Panasonic plants are doing 4680 right? Think about it and let us know. I might be wrong
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