Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

My post was an attempt to rationalise your current thought processes. It wasn't an attack on you as a person, but some of the (in my view ridiculous) assertions you were making about Elon and the Cybertruck. Based on reactions here many others on the forum agreed that your assertions were/are ridiculous, but that's not surprising given this is an investors thread. You may not remember, but I was one of the few people who actually understood and supported your decision to sell that TSLA in the first place. Many others were far less forgiving, shall we say.

To get things back on track... Have you seen the Cybertruck in person? Many people have over the weekend and are going crazy for it. It might not be a truck for you and it might not be the truck you thought Elon "promised" 4 years ago... But that's how concepts and prototype vs. production goes sometimes - actually often the end product is changed even more than it is here. The Cybertruck it's a billboard on wheels for Tesla, don't doubt the power this will have for pulling people into the brand. Regardless of how you personally feel about it.

So let me get your view correct this time. You supported my decision when I did it, but when my view goes against your hope then you berate me for the exact same decision you supported earlier. Got it.

 

[2daMoon]

A panel firmly attached is not necessarily an exo-skeleton.

If those panels are not necessary to bear any of the load, then it really isn't. And I'd wager that in most cars they aren't engineered to be load-bearing.

Well, in all honesty, lightweight body panels are still an exoskeleton, just not much of one. Like comparing the exoskeleton of a shrimp to that of a lobster. One can be easily removed by hand, the other may require tools for disassembly.

Legacy pickups are shrimp, Cybertruck is a lobster. (maybe more like a Conch)

Edit: okay @scaesare , perhaps a better comparison would have been the exoskeleton of an Ant, er, let's make that a Cricket, to the shell of a Tortoise (endo + exo-skeleton). (I was making an attempt at being sarcastic and neglected to include the /s)

 

[jeewee3000]

Yep. TSLA has essentially traded flat for the past three years. Sure it's been a roller coaster of ups and downs, but our share price today is almost exactly what it was three years ago.

Conversely, the company is far, FAR stronger with a much more promising future today than it was three years ago.

Only if one is bullish on FSD and Optimus.

If not, the car business part of Tesla has taken a severe blow in the last years since the margins dropped. (Yes, macros/inflation/etc, but there is great insecurity if Tesla will see auto margins go back to what they were. That is why we are not at ATH.)

FSD / Optimus were never priced in much IMO.

 

[winfield100]

Only if one is bullish on FSD and Optimus.

If not, the car business part of Tesla has taken a severe blow in the last years since the margins dropped. (Yes, macros/inflation/etc, but there is great insecurity if Tesla will see auto margins go back to what they were. That is why we are not at ATH.)

FSD / Optimus were never priced in much IMO.

buying opportunities for those whom were not 101% already in.......and have "enough"

 

[EVMeister]

So let me get your view correct this time. You supported my decision when I did it, but when my view goes against your hope then you berate me for the exact same decision you supported earlier. Got it.

No, it's what you type and the thoughts you shared not "your decision" I took issue with. I was just pointing out what your decision was so others can draw their own conclusions. Not going to flog a dead horse here, I've said what needed to be said.

 

[Mengy]

Only if one is bullish on FSD and Optimus.

If not, the car business part of Tesla has taken a severe blow in the last years since the margins dropped. (Yes, macros/inflation/etc, but there is great insecurity if Tesla will see auto margins go back to what they were. That is why we are not at ATH.)

FSD / Optimus were never priced in much IMO.

Eh, even if FSD and Optimus never come to fruition, auto growth + energy would be enough to see the stock hit $800-$1000 per share by 2030 in my opinion and by my math, even if margins stay subdued from here on out. The Model 2 + megapacks will add substantial revenues over the next 5+ years.

 

[jeewee3000]

Eh, even if FSD and Optimus never come to fruition, auto growth + energy would be enough to see the stock hit $800-$1000 per share by 2030 in my opinion and by my math, even if margins stay subdued from here on out. The Model 2 + megapacks will add substantial revenues over the next 5+ years.

Of course, my post wasn't meant to be bearish. It was my read on general investor sentiment regarding TSLA in the past three years.

I'm quite confident that Tesla will increase margins when interest rates drop.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Stop bickering.

 

[TesslaBull]

Said I'd bow out, but it's before trading hours, so just a quick response:

My point is value ≠ frequency.

If you have an occasional, but important, application (moving a fridge) for which you can rent the Home Depot beater, great. If you have an occasional, but important, application (piling the family in to tow the travel trailer for the yearly week-long trip) for which it's not practical to source an alternative, then there's value in having a truck.

Again, don't conflate frequency of use with value.

I understand your position now, thanks.

 

[Usain]

Wild speculation of the day:

So the Cybertruck delivery event will be in the afternoon. These events are usually at night. Do they need daylight for a demo?

Note that the Texas-Colorado river runs right past Giga Austin. So my wild speculation is that the Cybertruck will make a grand entrance by fording the river and driving up to the factory.

 

[Electroman]

yes, they are tiptoeing into ads on YouTube and Google

I have seen quite a few Model 3 ads on YouTube the last few weeks. But then they preaching to the choir, in my case

 

[powertoold]

This exoskeleton talk is full of misunderstandings, especially by Munro. It's simple: the CT's core structure is vastly different than other trucks. The CT's strongest areas are more focused on the exterior, with the biggest difference being the truck bed, where the casting encases almost the entire bed.

Legacy truck beds aren't part of the truck's structure. They're simply appendages that are tacked onto the structure (see example of crumpled bed below):

 

[navguy12]

Another FUD piece, this time an editorial written by someone with no fossil fuel agenda/S

(Paywalled, Toronto Globe and Mail)

But in 2021, only 66,800 fully electric vehicles were sold in Canada, a tiny 0.04 per cent of the vehicle stock. And the number of electric vehicle sales has stalled both here and in the United States. Ford is postponing US$12-billion in EV production facilities. Volkswagen has stopped production of two of its EVs. Tesla Inc. TSLA-Q keeps slashing its sales prices to move inventory. General Motors is delaying producing EV trucks in its Michigan plant by a year.

Opinion: Why government mandates on electric cars will not work

In 2021, only 66,800 fully electric vehicles were sold in Canada, a tiny 0.04 per cent of the vehicle stock

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[jkirkwood001]

A panel firmly attached is not necessarily an exo-skeleton.

If those panels are not necessary to bear any of the load, then it really isn't. And I'd wager that in most cars they aren't engineered to be load-bearing.

Whoa. Déjà vu.
(Mods?)

 

[scaesare]

Not strictly investor related, hence my main post in the specific forum, but might be interesting given the pending Cybertruck event, which may indeed have investment bearing...

CT Crash Test Simulations

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah, I called for CT Delivery Day to be held on Nov 27th way back on Sep 18th:



Not for the "Cyber-Monday" connection, but for the 76th anniversary of the introduction of the 1st Ford "F-Series" pickup (which was Nov 27, 1947).

Here's my angle. CT now how the following 3 things going for it in terms of longevity/extreme durability:

1. Million-mile drive train from the Model 3 (SRPM motors shown to last > 1M mi in bench testing)
2. Stainless steel body work is not only bullet proof, but it is CANCER PROOF (ie: rustproof)
3. Depending upon the chemistry in the Cybercell v2 this may have a 1M mil battery pack too (or maybe 25-50 years service life, if all Dr. Jeff Dahn's research is brought to bear)

So to celebrate the CT launch, instead of just announcing a GREAT price for CT, why not also announce an UNHEARD-OF Extended Warranty, too? I mean, like crazy long. Like more than 20 years, or maybe like 50 years if there's some kind of pro-rating involved.

This is how we kill gas cars. If an EV has 3x the usable service life of the competing gas car/truck, then only a third of the vehicles need to be produced to replenish the fleet once a steady state has been reached. That means 30M cars/yr are needed post 2050, instead of 90M/yt. That's the HIGHEST savings of all, for the Environment, for Consumers... Winner-winner, Chicken-dinner.

So what if cars lasted 50 years? What if the only maintenance cars needed was charging, new tires, and windshield wiper fluid? And what if Tesla materials scientists get involved with Cyber-tires? 'jus sayin'...

Cheers to the Longs!

I've always wondered why they Tesla doesn't progressively extend power train and battery warrantys as the reliability grows, mostly for marketing purposes, and just because they can. Retroactively to older models, even more impressive.

What a great smack down to ICE and unwarranted fears of replacing expensive battery packs. I'm pretty sure that very few new car buyers think about the plastics and peripherals degrading after 15-25 years, but simple drive train years and miles are the simplest measure of reliability you could ask for.

 

[jerry33]

Not strictly investor related, hence my main post in the specific forum, but might be interesting given the pending Cybertruck event, which may indeed have investment bearing...

CT Crash Test Simulations

Aren't those simulations just from a generic simulator. I don't think generic simulation works for the Cybertruck.

 

[scaesare]

Aren't those simulations just from a generic simulator. I don't think generic simulation works for the Cybertruck.

Yeah, somebody else posted later on from the original source (I had only seen the IG posting), so I suspect they may not be tarribly accurate.

Makes me want to see the real tests now

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Plates are back on the table in Sweden

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729176190886580479

 

[Cosmacelf]

Plates are back on the table in Sweden

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729176190886580479

Wow, Swedish courts are fast!