Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

You really shouldn't... his vids are arguably the least honest on the topic of all the influencer testers.

He was posting videos claiming FSD drove him to his favorite restaurant without interventions before fsdb was even a thing.

As he often does the video was greatly sped up.... when you slowed it down you could clearly see at every intersection he was manually making the turn then rengaging since FSD at that time didn't DO turning on city streets.

When someone in the comments pointed it out he said he meant any "unexpected" interventions, and manually making turns was expected, so he stood by the video title.


If you want a vastly more realistic version of where FSD is stick to folks like Chuck Cook.... who just recently posted his famous UPL testing on 12.3.6 and it's... not good....especially for a situation where Tesla had been directly training on that exact intersection for months and months now.

I see. So does his past negate v12 now? Are all his v12 vids false? I do watch Chuck as well...been keeping up with his turn since the beginning. I do watch a variety of these v12 vids, but like the location Whole Mars is in for these test runs.

Chuck's intersection is starting to annoy me though. Let's not have that be the sole focus of this software. As a human, I don't even like making these types of turns...they can be very stressful. If I have to wait too long, I'll just go do a u-turn.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Are you saying that in the US, the dealer pays MRSP for the car? (or close to it) Respectfully, I feel like you're evading the answer. If BMW in Atlanta sells a 5-series for MSRP (let's say $60k), how much would they have paid BMW for that car?

Well, it depends, you don't _really_ know. Lots of obfuscation.

Here's a link that explains various things. Net profit is small on new vehicles.

How Much Do Dealerships Make On New Cars [2024]

When buying a new car, many car buyers are wondering how much profit a car dealership makes on the sale. The answer is more complex than you might think.

www.autohitch.com

 

[Dutchie]

What strikes me most is how well Elon is received by China and how sad it is that we in the west are not cheering for our guys anymore. Even if you disagree with Elon on some issues, which most Chinese do, we want the innovation to be happening here...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784835703743881256

Europe has lost it a long time ago. America is still pushing ahead, but the administration and media sure could do better at cheering for the home team even if some of their players write tweets they disagree with.

As for Baidu I think this will mainly be Tesla buying maps for navigation. But it could be that Tesla will use Baidu infrastructure to store their video data and maybe to buy compute:

Baidu Cloud Compute (BCC)-Baidu AI Cloud

Baidu Cloud Compute (BCC)

intl.cloud.baidu.com

I think what will happen is that Tesla will iterate and train many neural networks in USA. This requires tons of compute thus they are expanding compute. Once they have some well trained neural networks, they need to refine these for China. Basically they will take the already trained neural network, then train it some more with a mix mostly new data and a little bit of old data. The amount of compute needed for this is large but a magnitude less than what they do in the USA. So they can probably afford to just purchase this compute outright. And Baidu is selling compute.

Tesla would need to ensure that their proprietary algorithms for training FSD V12+ is not stolen though.

I give it a 10-25% probability that Tesla is buying compute from Baidu.

Without ASML there would be no Nvidia, there would be no FSD, there would be no AI.

 

[Singuy]

You really shouldn't... his vids are arguably the least honest on the topic of all the influencer testers.

He was posting videos claiming FSD drove him to his favorite restaurant without interventions before fsdb was even a thing.

As he often does the video was greatly sped up.... when you slowed it down you could clearly see at every intersection he was manually making the turn then rengaging since FSD at that time didn't DO turning on city streets.

When someone in the comments pointed it out he said he meant any "unexpected" interventions, and manually making turns was expected, so he stood by the video title.


If you want a vastly more realistic version of where FSD is stick to folks like Chuck Cook.... who just recently posted his famous UPL testing on 12.3.6 and it's... not good....especially for a situation where Tesla had been directly training on that exact intersection for months and months now.

As many people including you have posted. These 12.3.x releases are not fully trained models but just releases to be more inclusive for all version of new and old Teslas (like adding parking to USS Teslas). These UPL tests they have been doing for months will most likely go into 12.4 or 12.5.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Haha, that explains the K-Town in Kingston. Were you really roommates with Elon, that's quite a picture. Cheers!

I’ve never met the man, but I lived here when he went to Queen’s. We’re about the same age. No doubt we were in the same bar together at some point. University town of roughly 130,000. Three bars dominate called “The Hub” of Kingston’s nightlife. One degree of separation from this once in a lifetime genius got me hooked. Kingston is my hometown. It’s a great town, politicians aside. The Tragically Hip were born here! Nothing more Canadian than that!

 

[SPadival]

This became a little bit more interesting ..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784200399467270552

 

[unk45]

OK, I see your point about suing someone with deep pockets.

So for FSD, this wouldn't apply until Tesla is ready to take liability with unsupervised FSD.

As long we are talking about supervised FSD then nothing has changed from what we have today. So if supervised FSD is safer than a driver alone, your insurance rates should go down. If Tesla is taking liability then you insurance rate goes way, way, way down.

Sure and Tesla has no suits now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

As for Baidu I think this will mainly be Tesla buying maps for navigation. But it could be that Tesla will use Baidu infrastructure to store their video data and maybe to buy compute:

No, Tesla built their own infrastructure in China for data storage years ago as part of a 2021 deal to allow collection of Chinese road data, while keeping that data in-country.

Here's the article we discussed here at TMC at that time, as published on South China Morning Post:

Tesla says new data centre in Shanghai will complete by end June

Development comes amid greater public scrutiny of how personal and electrical vehicle data is stored in China.

www.scmp.com

 

[Gigapress]

This is only the situation where Tesla 'plays nice' with other car companies. They do not have to.
They could insist on a dramatically higher royalty for FSD than they get from Tesla cars. Why not? What are legacy auto's other options in a world where customers absolutely expect FSD? Apple charges 30% of ALL app revenue, when the marginal cost of an app placement on their store is trivial. There is no law that would prevent Tesla charging its users $99/month for FSD but demanding $149/month for non Tesla subscriptions 'to cover our integration overhead'.
Alternatively, Elon could just decree that FSD licenses are only available to companies who sell > 75% of there vehicles as BEV.

I'm not saying Tesla WILL do this, but if they play hardball they can. Then could even just refuse to license it to anyone and watch the legacy car companies go bankrupt in quick succession.
I don't think legacy auto has any clue what a nightmare position they will be in.

I doubt Tesla would charge a dramatically higher price, because they care too much about advancing safety. By the time FSD is that good, the decision that prevents the most deaths and injuries is to expand FSD usage to as many vehicles as possible.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some positive comments on FSD by the co-founder of Xiaomi:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784987176452940273

 

[Usain]

It's been happening for 8 years for Tesla. People have been working on AI for decades. Until we reach 100%, there's no way of knowing if we're 9% there or 90% there as a timeline.

If you don't recognize the FSD V12 is a game-changer then you don't understand Tesla at all.

 

[GhostSkater]

Been away from here and too many posts to catch up, but for a good reason, having a repeat for a bit more fun, this time in blue

Nice to see how up we are after the call, it was the last day I had checked the price

Cheers

 

[unk45]

Are you saying that in the US, the dealer pays MRSP for the car? (or close to it) Respectfully, I feel like you're evading the answer. If BMW in Atlanta sells a 5-series for MSRP (let's say $60k), how much would they have paid BMW for that car?

Good heavens no. I said nothing of the sort! Were to to,pay attention Insaid that the margin between ‘dealer cost’ and ‘MSRP’ is the their primary source of profit. ‘Dealer cost’ is rarely cost to dealers just as MSRP is rarely sales price.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This became a little bit more interesting ..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784200399467270552

Debate between he and himself? Just a joke I think.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

I’ve never met the man, but I lived here when he went to Queen’s. We’re about the same age. No doubt we were in the same bar together at some point. University town of roughly 130,000. Three bars dominate called “The Hub” of Kingston’s nightlife. One degree of separation from this once in a lifetime genius got me hooked. Kingston is my hometown. It’s a great town, politicians aside. The Tragically Hip were born here! Nothing more Canadian than that!

More on this...

Rob Baker, lead guitarist for The Hip, drives an early Model S and still lives in KTown.

I picked up a rando dude downtown driving Uber one day, turned out to be Paul Langois, from The Hip. We had a cool ride together.

Kingston is a cool town, run by "elitists". Same goes for Canada as a whole. (in my opinion @Artful Dodger)

Anyone up for a TSLA investor meetup in Ktown? It's beautiful in the summer. Smack dab in between Toronto/Montreal/Ottawa.

Let me know.

Cheers.

 

[MartinAustin]

Are you saying that in the US, the dealer pays MRSP for the car? (or close to it) Respectfully, I feel like you're evading the answer. If BMW in Atlanta sells a 5-series for MSRP (let's say $60k), how much would they have paid BMW for that car?

This is proof their mission is simply to derail and dilute this forum.

 

[Opus BC fan]

FYI-
I have found that using the ignore feature can significantly improve the signal-to-noise ratio on this forum.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

More on this...

Rob Baker, lead guitarist for The Hip, drives an early Model S and still lives in KTown.

I picked up a rando dude downtown driving Uber one day, turned out to be Paul Langois, from The Hip. We had a cool ride together.

Kingston is a cool town, run by "elitists". Same goes for Canada as a whole. (in my opinion @Artful Dodger)

Anyone up for a TSLA investor meetup in Ktown? It's beautiful in the summer. Smack dab in between Toronto/Montreal/Ottawa.

Let me know.

Here’s a shot of The Hips final concert. In Kingston. The first capital of Canada. Could be cool to arrange a Tesla investor meet up here where Elon once attended Queen’s. Lots of Tesla’s around town these days. Tides are turning. Please DM me if you are interested in making this happen. I know basically everyone in town, one degree or less. Cheers.

 

[Knightshade]

As many people including you have posted. These 12.3.x releases are not fully trained models but just releases to be more inclusive for all version of new and old Teslas (like adding parking to USS Teslas). These UPL tests they have been doing for months will most likely go into 12.4 or 12.5.

Except these tests have not been going for months- they've been going on for years.


Tesla has been training specifically on Chucks left since before FSD 10.13. We know this both because the drivers were spotted there and because Chuck is called out by name in the 10.13 release notes from 2022 when they first added the ability to stop in the media in such turns to try and improve his situation.

Improved stopping pose while yielding for crossing objects at "Chuck Cook style" unprotected left turns by utilizing the median safety regions.

All through the rest of 10, and 11, and now 12, they've had Tesla folks physically AT chucks intersection testing and data collecting- and still been unable to solve it.

I see. So does his past negate v12 now? Are all his v12 vids false?

I never said ALL his vids are false-- but many have been at a most generous reading intentionally misleading--- so why bother watching them at all? There's LOTS of others doing videos on this topic in FSD cars without the taint of Omars dishonesty on them.

Chuck's intersection is starting to annoy me though. Let's not have that be the sole focus of this software. As a human, I don't even like making these types of turns...they can be very stressful. If I have to wait too long, I'll just go do a u-turn.

Ok- but these exact "hard" situations are the ones Tesla will most need to solve if they want a generalized driverless solution.... The longer they are unable to solve such a situation the more one might have to consider there's something fundamentally missing outside of just more training.

Things like "only make right turns" is the stuff folks (including in here) were making fun of Waymo for for years- I'd hate to think Tesla would have to resort to such techniques.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Here’s a shot of The Hips final concert. In Kingston. The first capital of Canada. Could be cool to arrange a Tesla investor meet up here where Elon once attended Queen’s. Lots of Tesla’s around town these days. Tides are turning. Please DM me if you are interested in making this happen. I know basically everyone in town, one degree or less. Cheers.

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This song hits me hard as a TSLA investor. Stay the course. (Not financial advice). Love y’all.