Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Received an email from Tesla reminding me to vote my shares...

which I had done a couple of hours before!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Arguably Apple shouldn't even tried to get close to autonomous cars. There were much lower hanging fruit like Cloud or AI for them to do. I mean at this point Siri is a disgrace and that gap will only grow bigger.

Yes, the fact that Apple didn't realize Siri was obsoleted On December 1st 2022 when ChatGPT was released is a travesty of business strategy.

Apple could use a 30% employee riff itself just to get rid of decision making bloat. And start from the top.

 

[MD70]

None of us can know for certain why Tesla sales seem to be having difficulties, but there is a list of potential reasons:

- Interest rates are high. I know some people say the price cuts offset interest rates leaving monthly payments largely unchanged, but many car buyers won't take a loan with a high rate no matter what the payments are.

- The economy. People (middle and lower class) are hurting financially and can't afford to buy big ticket items right now.

- EV fear. There are still a lot of people who don't trust EV's. I still regularly get strangers asking me about mine, and many are still surprised I'm able to drive it cross country, they thought all EV's have very limited range. This is the largest reason why so many keep asking Tesla to advertise, mostly as a public education program about modern EV's.

- Elon's behavior has turned off some customers. I know this is a controversial topic and many don't believe this is true, but I see it all over the internet and I know many people personally who simply won't even consider buying a Tesla simply because of the stuff Elon says and does. I think many people don't care either way (I don't), but there certainly is a subset of people who treat Elon as an evil billionaire and they don't want to support him in any fashion.

- Competition. While Tesla's are still the best EV's and they sell many more than any other brand, there are some pretty good competitors out there now. Variety in the EV market is a good thing, but it has taken some sales away from Tesla.


I'm pretty sure once the Fed starts lowering interest rates and the global economy starts to improve we'll see Tesla demand go right back up. In the meantime we might be in for a bit of stagnation, this is likely why Elon is in full demon mode right now tightening up the ship so to speak (in my opinion).

I agree and would add:
Lack of targeted marketing at people who can afford the models and can charge at home.
Restrictions in some states on sales and service centres. Some people aren’t online as much and need to physically be able to see and test drive vehicles.
Others nearest service centre may be a few hours drive away which puts them off.

 

[Mengy]

Grok (New Voice Assistant) in China now. Sample voice given, but more questions than answers.
Feels like China's gonna leapfrog the US on RT.

Tesla is Creating a Voice Assistant to Replace Voice Commands [Example of Voice]

Tesla may be getting ready to add its own voice assistant that will replace the voice command system.

www.notateslaapp.com

Oh this is sweet, I hope we get this in the US. One step closer to KITT from Knight Rider!!!

 

[Unpilot]

Those of you wondering about the SP....and why it can't stay above 180...

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

Max pain of course....tail continues to wag the dog.

 

[UkNorthampton]

None of us can know for certain why Tesla sales seem to be having difficulties, but there is a list of potential reasons:

- Interest rates are high. I know some people say the price cuts offset interest rates leaving monthly payments largely unchanged, but many car buyers won't take a loan with a high rate no matter what the payments are.

- The economy. People (middle and lower class) are hurting financially and can't afford to buy big ticket items right now.

- EV fear. There are still a lot of people who don't trust EV's. I still regularly get strangers asking me about mine, and many are still surprised I'm able to drive it cross country, they thought all EV's have very limited range. This is the largest reason why so many keep asking Tesla to advertise, mostly as a public education program about modern EV's.

- Elon's behavior has turned off some customers. I know this is a controversial topic and many don't believe this is true, but I see it all over the internet and I know many people personally who simply won't even consider buying a Tesla simply because of the stuff Elon says and does. I think many people don't care either way (I don't), but there certainly is a subset of people who treat Elon as an evil billionaire and they don't want to support him in any fashion.

- Competition. While Tesla's are still the best EV's and they sell many more than any other brand, there are some pretty good competitors out there now. Variety in the EV market is a good thing, but it has taken some sales away from Tesla.


I'm pretty sure once the Fed starts lowering interest rates and the global economy starts to improve we'll see Tesla demand go right back up. In the meantime we might be in for a bit of stagnation, this is likely why Elon is in full demon mode right now tightening up the ship so to speak (in my opinion).

Deliveries not equal to "sales". Lots of boats with cars on them - they're included in "Inventory" (incorrectly in my opinion).

Edit: Arguably the word "sale" is better used for a firm order.

Tesla do NOT have the option to channel stuff like other manufacturers. Delivered to customers counts, sitting around a delivery centre or docks don't count even if a number of people are waiting for that build of Tesla and the logistics just aren't there on that day/quarter. There might still be a shortage of car transporter HGVs (Semis) or their specially trained and in-demand drivers.

It's a slow (dangerous) journey from Shanghai to Europe via the southern passage around Africa and via Pacific, Atlantic, Bay of Biscay.

Much quicker via Red Sea, less ships tied up at a time when vehicle carriers and port capacity/storage have been utilised for Chinese-made cars from "new" brands.

Left Hand Drive Europe gets its Model 3 from China, also presumably essential parts for Berlin production.

UK, Ireland and other Right Hand Drive countries get Model Y from China as well as Model 3.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786401314487828904

RBL.... something about battery mineral requirements (if auto expand doesn't work for you)

 

[FreqFlyer]

There's been a lot of speculation around Tesla pivoting hard to AI/FSD/RoboTaxi over the last few weeks. It feels more risky because dumb EVs have done us very well over the last few years, but after some soul searching I think it's the right thing to do to swing for the fences to make a product that is seriously differentiated and hard to copy.

Look at what China is pumping out at $20k already. There's no avenue for wide margins with dumb EVs. Avoiding a race to the bottom on manufacturing costs is a good idea.

1. That noise you hear is Porsche designers in Germany throwing their ashtrays against the wall after seeing this Taycan knockoff.

2. One can leave a market or one can compete. Tesla was ready to compete profitably with the Gen 3 platform consumer product. Tesla will still compete with a product based on a present platform. The consumer is interested in the product. not how it's built.

One cannot boast, "Where is the competition?" Then leave the market when competition arrives.

 

[scaesare]

As it is after hours, and, because precision fermentation came up earlier, I figured this might just slide in as loosely investment related.

From Starbase Brewing, the Official Brewery of Mars...

View attachment 1020242​

A Martian-style Red Ale, perfectly paired with a TSLA red day.

And, while it's not after hours, but perhaps to take the edge of what has been a rather contentious forum recently here on this fine Friday... these just came in the mail the other day:

 

[scaesare]

I disagree. It’s more complicated than just cutting costs. As has been explained by Elon, multiple times over the years, including recently, that you’re blatantly ignoring is that to keep a company healthy you have to aggressively cull the herd to prevent waste, bloat, floaters and all that happens to businesses when there’s too many cooks in the kitchen, too many layers of middlemen etc…

Additionally, it sets fire to the butts of those remaining who aren’t pulling their weight and contributing in a meaningful way. If they don’t like it, they can leave too.

Lastly, it becomes the perfect time to pivot the company.

This is Elon at his best. You invested in this Elon. If you didn’t and you don’t like it, you know what to do.

I hope Elon's internal project name for whatever is happening is "Project Phoenix".

 

[jkirkwood001]

Argh!

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/proxyvote.com

 

[scaesare]

So this is what was under the big tent that was spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer on Wednesday: the first ever Megapack Installer Day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786190526691033576

Interesting module on the table with its cover off... looks like either switching or an inverter. What's most interesting is that the tray under the cover seems about half empty:

Cells removed? Doesn't seem like it...

 

[Tony73]

So my question of the day is, "What makes Elon so confident that Tesla in 2024 will beat 2023 deliveries?"

If he really is confident, my guess is that Elon is planning drastic price cuts. More drastic than anything we've seen so far. I can think of two reasons this will be possible:
1. Battery prices will continue to fall sharply.
2. Tesla can cut margins close to zero in order to collect FSD revenue later.

Tesla can only cut margins so much. It still needs cash to fund its growth. There is a lot of capex between now and meaningful FSD revenues.

 

[MP3Mike]

Deliveries not equal to "sales". Lots of boats with cars on them - they're included in "Inventory" (incorrectly in my opinion).

I don't think they could count them as sales, as the purchaser can back out at any point in the process. Maybe they should create a third category for vehicles in inventory/transit that are matched to an order. But there is nothing comparable for other OEMs, so it would just get added back to the inventory for comparison to peers.

 

[Drax7]

.

I randomly looked and this link has some Apple Inc. bonds you can search for. Coupons are in the 1-4% range. Link I posted is for 3%. Not anything Apple is not happy to have I'd guess. Nothing is over 5%.

BOND SCREENER & FINDER | ETF DATABASE | Markets Insider

Bonds search and comparison: With the bond screener, you can choose from all bonds traded worldwide according to all important criteria.

markets.businessinsider.com

APPLE INC.DL-NOTES 2017(17/27) Bond | Markets Insider

APPLE INC.DL-NOTES 2017(17/27) (US037833CX61) - All master data, key figures and real-time diagram.

markets.businessinsider.com

Even Zuckerberg has a mortgage on his

Do we know their LT debt is at 6%? Given how low interest rates were through much of their years of buybacks I'd find that surprisingly high.

That said, the stock is up almost 250% in the last 5 years, so seems buying back is a lot better return than paying off debt even AT 6%.

They can repurchase their debt back instead of buying their shares.
At 6% their debt has a 15 p/e vs their stock a 30 p/ e.

 

[scaesare]

I would like to explain why I disagree. There is value in being able to quickly signal disagreement with something someone has said without needing to take the time and effort to refute it. In-person social interactions allow one to do so with facial expressions, body language, and quick nonverbal vocalizations. On this forum the closest we have to that is an thumbs down without further explanation.

Also, as is stated by the BS Asymmetry Principle, it's vastly easier to Gish Gallop a stream of nonsense into a discussion than it is to thoughtfully rebut the nonsense. This fact is known by disingenuous interlocutors who want not to contribute to thoughtful discussion but rather to disrupt and derail thoughtful discussion which was already happening before they arrived. The tactic can be especially effective in a forum where the content is organized as a single, chronological thread of messages, because the goal is achieved by mere volume of low-value posts crowding out the thoughtful discussion. A simple solution would be to allow ignorers of suspected trolls to also be able to ignore replies to the same accounts.

Largely agree... (and enjoy the citation of the BS Asymmetry Principle as well as use of "interlocutors")...

I tend to give new(er) posters the benefit of the doubt and will explain disagrees and give them an opportunity for honest discourse. If they fail to do that and continue to instead to continue what appears to be in bad faith, they will then just get unexplained black thumbs from me...

 

[advocate8]

We all want information - good and bad. The poster seems to focus only the bad for some strange reason...

and others here only focus on the good -- or create it out of sheer fantasy. karmic balance.

 

[Coolio2000]

Oh this is sweet, I hope we get this in the US. One step closer to KITT from Knight Rider!!!

Do I have to learn Chinese to use it?

 

[2daMoon]

Argh!

View attachment 1044018

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/proxyvote.com

FWIW, I had problems using the voting site with Firefox on the PC, and the same when attempting on the phone using a browser.
Eventually was successful by using Microsoft Edge browser on the PC.

Though, I didn't receive the above message when experiencing the issues.

 

[2daMoon]

Interesting module on the table with its cover off... looks like either switching or an inverter. What's most interesting is that the tray under the cover seems about half empty:

View attachment 1044021

Cells removed? Doesn't seem like it...

That's where they keep the spare electrons... (hole theory versions)