Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hpiv]

Given that getting to Mars requires massive amounts of money, your statement really makes no sense. Among his other goal requiring a big pile of cash: fighting climate change, augmenting human brain/nerve function in the face of damage, and a global "public square" community platform.

I seem to recall that Elon changed his mind about buying Twitter and trying to pull out, but a judge forced him to go through with it anyway.

Also, didn't Elon basically threaten to leave Tesla and take as much AI and robotics tech with him as possible if he didn't get 25% of the company? And yet he was fine with selling out of Tesla for Twitter, lowering his ownership in Tesla from nearly 25% to far below. So the 25% control was not that important? Or was it? No idea, because what he said doesn't make sense when you look at what he did.

His actions don't seem to match his words anymore.

 

[hpiv]

View attachment 1048077

Elon sold huge numbers of shares on the open market in april 2022 and december 2022. The stock got hammered because of it. (see the chart)

Is it so strange that certain stockholders - even if they gained a lot from the runup earlier after the compensation plan - are of the opinion Elon should have done things differently?

Elon needs to look in the mirror on this. But he probably won't.

As a shareholder for several years now (I did not just jump in during the euphoria of 2020, so I am still significantly up on my position), I feel that Elon kind of has betrayed my trust.

There is no denying that he achieved amazing things, things that most people never believed would be possible. However, I also feel misled when it comes to things like the goal of 20 million cars yearly by 2030 and the cheaper $25k model. Or what about "unlimited demand for current models" just before demand started collapsing? Just 3 examples. It is now clear that Elon, at the very least, has pivoted away from his previous promises.

20M cars a year is no longer needed if robotaxis succeed, it is said. And the $25k model is not needed either because everyone will be using robotaxis instead. Demand for existing cars was going to be unlimited anyway.

Remember, Elon was talking about robotaxis well before his compensation plan suddenly looked to be achievable. So why the change of heart now? Why only after Tesla run up on promises of 20M cars a year and a $25k compact "just around the corner"?

Would Tesla have reached the required market cap to trigger Elon's full compensation package had he not promised those and other things?

It almost feels like Elon made these promises knowing full well that they were never real. He knew all along that the robotaxi was the ultimate goal, and as soon as robotaxi was on the horizon, everything else would be prioritized down. He knew demand for current vehicles was softening as well. But he made the promises anyway. He set goals for sales and model types he perhaps never actually intended to deliver. He also knew demand was far from unlimited, as he claimed it to be in public.

And those fake goals and false promises, I think, helped increase Tesla's market cap due to the promise of continued growth for at least 5-10 more years.

Had he been honest and said "we're going to see zero to negative sales growth within the next couple of years, and it will last until robotaxis are ready", I doubt Tesla would have reached the market cap needed to reach the goals of the at least the last tranche of the compensation package.

Am I alone in thinking about the situation in this way?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

As a shareholder for several years now (I did not just jump in during the euphoria of 2020, so I am still significantly up on my position), I feel that Elon kind of has betrayed my trust.

There is no denying that he achieved amazing things, things that most people never believed would be possible. However, I also feel misled when it comes to things like the goal of 20 million cars yearly by 2030 and the cheaper $25k model. Or what about "unlimited demand for current models" just before demand started collapsing? Just 3 examples. It is now clear that Elon, at the very least, has pivoted away from his previous promises.

20M cars a year is no longer needed if robotaxis succeed, it is said. And the $25k model is not needed either because everyone will be using robotaxis instead. Demand for existing cars was going to be unlimited anyway.

Remember, Elon was talking about robotaxis well before his compensation plan suddenly looked to be achievable. So why the change of heart now? Why only after Tesla run up on promises of 20M cars a year and a $25k compact "just around the corner"?

Would Tesla have reached the required market cap to trigger Elon's full compensation package had he not promised those and other things?

It almost feels like Elon made these promises knowing full well that they were never real. He knew all along that the robotaxi was the ultimate goal, and as soon as robotaxi was on the horizon, everything else would be prioritized down. He knew demand for current vehicles was softening as well. But he made the promises anyway. He set goals for sales and model types he perhaps never actually intended to deliver. He also knew demand was far from unlimited, as he claimed it to be in public.

And those fake goals and false promises, I think, helped increase Tesla's market cap due to the promise of continued growth for at least 5-10 more years.

Had he been honest and said "we're going to see zero to negative sales growth within the next couple of years, and it will last until robotaxis are ready", I doubt Tesla would have reached the market cap needed to reach the goals of the at least the last tranche of the compensation package.

Am I alone in thinking about the situation in this way?

You're not alone. There's plenty of people who think like this.

I am most certainly not in agreement.

 

[GOVA]

As a shareholder for several years now (I did not just jump in during the euphoria of 2020, so I am still significantly up on my position), I feel that Elon kind of has betrayed my trust.

There is no denying that he achieved amazing things, things that most people never believed would be possible. However, I also feel misled when it comes to things like the goal of 20 million cars yearly by 2030 and the cheaper $25k model. Or what about "unlimited demand for current models" just before demand started collapsing? Just 3 examples. It is now clear that Elon, at the very least, has pivoted away from his previous promises.

20M cars a year is no longer needed if robotaxis succeed, it is said. And the $25k model is not needed either because everyone will be using robotaxis instead. Demand for existing cars was going to be unlimited anyway.

Remember, Elon was talking about robotaxis well before his compensation plan suddenly looked to be achievable. So why the change of heart now? Why only after Tesla run up on promises of 20M cars a year and a $25k compact "just around the corner"?

Would Tesla have reached the required market cap to trigger Elon's full compensation package had he not promised those and other things?

It almost feels like Elon made these promises knowing full well that they were never real. He knew all along that the robotaxi was the ultimate goal, and as soon as robotaxi was on the horizon, everything else would be prioritized down. He knew demand for current vehicles was softening as well. But he made the promises anyway. He set goals for sales and model types he perhaps never actually intended to deliver. He also knew demand was far from unlimited, as he claimed it to be in public.

And those fake goals and false promises, I think, helped increase Tesla's market cap due to the promise of continued growth for at least 5-10 more years.

Had he been honest and said "we're going to see zero to negative sales growth within the next couple of years, and it will last until robotaxis are ready", I doubt Tesla would have reached the market cap needed to reach the goals of the at least the last tranche of the compensation package.

Am I alone in thinking about the situation in this way?

I am sure your understanding of Elon and his actions is limited or close to zero.

 

[Thekiwi]

Replying to a few above posts:

There are already both Electric motorbikes available (a lot of different models) and also Passenger Electric aircraft already in operation (small & short range).

 

[scaesare]

I seem to recall that Elon changed his mind about buying Twitter and trying to pull out, but a judge forced him to go through with it anyway.

Deciding that the value proposition of Twitter for your goal of creating a "public square" for public discourse is no longer attractive, but having a judge deem you must go through with it, in no way implies that he's interested in self-enrichment for the sake of it, rather than it having been a laudable goal.

@GatorMeat used that as an example of his "being interested in money".

Also, didn't Elon basically threaten to leave Tesla and take as much AI and robotics tech with him as possible if he didn't get 25% of the company? And yet he was fine with selling out of Tesla for Twitter, lowering his ownership in Tesla from nearly 25% to far below. So the 25% control was not that important? Or was it? No idea, because what he said doesn't make sense when you look at what he did.

His stated interest was in being able to have sufficient control. Again, his interest is in the mission, and that's how he feels he can best see it through.

His compensation plan was potentially thwarted, hence the resources he believed he had didn't materialize. Given that the Twitter acquisition was/had gone through, he felt he then had to address his Tesla position.

How is that indicative of his being about the money rather than the goals he has for those companies?

His actions don't seem to match his words anymore.

Or... people misconstrue his actions and the motives behind them.

 

[cliff harris]

I think people get a bit too obsessed with the 20 million cars a year goal. I'm an investor, not a car collector. If the best way for Tesla to make a ton of cash is to make 2 million robotaxis, or 1 million taxis and 5 million bots, then lets do that. I'm sure BYD will keep making EVs.
We all, quite rightly, ridicule companies like toyota for sticking to their doomed long term plan of hydrogen and hybrid cars, long after the facts have changed and both are clearly stupid.
I trust Elon to make a way better long term strategic decision than anybody else. This is a guy planning a mars colony. Long term strategic vision is kind of his special skill.
Not long until autonomy day part two when we find out the truth. I am definitely holding on to see what is coming. I expect a bright future for both FSD and Bots. I also expect that a lot of the negativity about future car production is overblown. Tesla definitely have other things in development than bot and RT.

Also BTW cybertruck ramp is still a thing, and still making insanely overpriced foundation series only. This is awesome.
Also Semi factory and megapack factory under construction too. Good times ahead.

 

[wipster]

Deciding that the value proposition of Twitter for your goal of creating a "public square" for public discourse is no longer attractive, but having a judge deem you must go through with it, in no way implies that he's interested in self-enrichment for the sake of it, rather than it having been a laudable goal.

@GatorMeat used that as an example of his "being interested in money".




His stated interest was in being able to have sufficient control. Again, his interest is in the mission, and that's how he feels he can best see it through.

His compensation plan was potentially thwarted, hence the resources he believed he had didn't materialize. Given that the Twitter acquisition was/had gone through, he felt he then had to address his Tesla position.

How is that indicative of his being about the money rather than the goals he has for those companies?




Or... people misconstrue his actions and the motives behind them.

I'm certainly not going to say I agree with a lot of what Elon has said on X since he took it over, but I certainly don't know the method to his perceived "madness." I mean how would you feel if you created the first new automobile manufacturer in the US since Tucker, basically reinvented EV's and auto manufacturing, solely built the largest and most reliable charging system, created rockets that LAND THEMSELVES for dog's sake and the new supposedly environmentally conscious President of the United States ignores you and your company's massive accomplishments just to solicit a few Union votes? I don't know about you but I'd be PISSED! Frankly I'm amazed he's been able to constrain his anger as much as he has... perhaps his condition allows him to.

I mean think of where Tesla would be today if Biden had congratulated Elon and Tesla rather than the joke that is Mary and GM? It boggles the mind.

And sure, he's made some projections that have yet to come to pass, but to think those were done solely to meet the tranches of his pay package means you don't understand what Tesla has done at all. Projections of future production don't influence current sales, the superior product does (and has only just begun).

I'll end with two words: Things Change. I invested in Tesla 12 years ago because I believed in the concept, the mission, and the man and they've been able to adapt quickly to the changes they've foreseen. I trust Elon to continue to do so.

 

[Thumper]

It is quite common for people to say things sincerely but circumstances change and they adjust. Consider the divorce rate.

 

[Knightshade]

I think people get a bit too obsessed with the 20 million cars a year goal. I'm an investor, not a car collector. If the best way for Tesla to make a ton of cash is to make 2 million robotaxis, or 1 million taxis and 5 million bots, then lets do that. I'm sure BYD will keep making EVs.

Weird-- I thought Teslas mission was to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport, not "make a ton of cash"

https://www.tesla.com/blog/mission-tesla

Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.

It's still there at tesla.com.... maybe the guy who was supposed to update that to "make a ton of cash' got laid off.

 

[nativewolf]

Explain please...

big utilities will likely favor Telsa because the purchasing manager won't get fired for buying megapacks. After a while that fades. It's a good/bad sort of thing.

 

[nativewolf]

Trucks don't kill riders, inattentive and low-skill people in vehicles kill riders. Teslas at least can see a motorcyclist and warn the driver in some cases, assuming the motorcyclist isn't riding too fast with insane speed disparity.

Better yet, a Tesla in FSD mode will respond better than a lot of humans, especially in scenarios where low-skill drivers fail to judge speed and distance and make turns in front of riders. This presents a roadblock that some riders cannot escape. Sometimes it's a driver being an impatient jerk without regard for the rider's safety.

The other issue is drivers who "dart", or make sudden moves that collide with a rider because they didn't see us or give themselves time to look. Drivers in larger vehicles tend not to dart as much. Primary example is people crossing the double yellow into the HOV lane, colliding with a rider.

It's never about the mass of a vehicle so much as the brain controlling it.

Driving a vehicle with no armor on a highway full of vehicles with 10x the mass, the vehicle moniker is "donor cycle" ...whose brain is the issue? Only 1 person, the person that got on a donor cycle.

 

[MC3OZ]

There is no denying that he achieved amazing things, things that most people never believed would be possible. However, I also feel misled when it comes to things like the goal of 20 million cars yearly by 2030 and the cheaper $25k model. Or what about "unlimited demand for current models" just before demand started collapsing? Just 3 examples. It is now clear that Elon, at the very least, has pivoted away from his previous promises.

An important consideration is if Elon believed the statements were true when he made them.

An another important consideration is if those targets are eventually hit, even though that is several years after the originally predicted dates.

IMO any pivot that happened, was due to Elon now seeing Robotaxis and Optimus as the biggest opportunities, and was also due in part to the current macro environment.

Taking the biggest or best opportunities first makes a lot of sense, it helps provide the funds needed to take other opportunities.

We have never heard that the 25K car or 20 Million cars per year are completely off the table. They are probably still aspirational targets, just lower priority and delayed.

 

[cab]

An important consideration is if Elon believed the statements were true when he made them.

An another important consideration is if those targets are eventually hit, even though that is several years after the originally predicted dates.

IMO any pivot that happened, was due to Elon now seeing Robotaxis and Optimus as the biggest opportunities, and was also due in part to the current macro environment.

Taking the biggest or best opportunities first makes a lot of sense, it helps provide the funds needed to take other opportunities.

We have never heard that the 25K car or 20 Million cars per year are completely off the table. They are probably still aspirational targets, just lower priority and delayed.

I actually wonder if Elon came to the harsh realization "we ultimately can't beat the Chinese" with regard to EV production. The number of Chinese competitors in the space and the rate at which they iterate on new models is, frankly, astounding. This may just be him pivoting the company as quickly as possible while they still have a material revenue stream from the cars to the thing he thinks they can compete and lead in in: RoboTaxis, Robots, AI-a-go-go, etc.

 

[AnbaricBike]

I predict we’ll see the earliest commercial use of eVTOL air taxis before 2030.

These will be in niche situations to begin with: Short hops maybe over water obstacles such as bays, lakes, and sounds mostly to and from major airports.

If there’s charging at both ends these short hops, then charging speed and battery durability may offset a small amount of energy density in the battery requirements—thus allowing earlier practical application. That is, the aircraft can charge while passengers debark and embark.

As for regulatory approval, I believe there’s already movement in the direction of eVTOL aircraft, but I don’t follow this particularly at the moment.

There will be some pressure on air travel providers to embrace electric air taxis as automobile autonomy and robotaxis will cut into air travel a bit. Parking garages will see less demand so their rooftops offer the opportunity for landing air taxis.

Starting perhaps between 2030 and 2035 unless there are impediments, BEV tunnels and Hyperloops could begin to create competition that will keep the airlines on their toes.

After 2035 but possibly before (if there is a technology accelerator such as a major war), earth-to-earth passenger rocket travel will begin to offer another opportunity for eVTOL in ferrying passengers to off-shore space ports.

These may seem aggressive estimates, but remember that we are again in a period of accelerated innovation and commercialization thereof.

I think Lilium Jet is worth following: Lilium Jet - The First Electric VTOL (eVTOL) Jet - Lilium

My best friend is leading the design of the battery enclosure for Lilium. Crazy challenge. He's basically inventing a new material. We were talking about how to perform a dielectric withstand test on a panel of the substance the other day. Stock has been doing well. He said it's because Lilium threatened to take their toys to France unless they got some German government money, which they got.

 

[MC3OZ]

I actually wonder if Elon came to the harsh realization "we ultimately can't beat the Chinese" with regard to EV production. The number of Chinese competitors in the space and the rate at which they iterate on new models is, frankly, astounding. This may just be him pivoting the company as quickly as possible while they still have a material revenue stream from the cars to the thing he thinks they can compete and lead in in: RoboTaxis, Robots, AI-a-go-go, etc.

It think it is more like "we can't match the Chinese without the unboxed method, Optimus and perhaps 4680s".

New technologies like Robotaxis will have higher margin due to less competition.

In the meantime the technology basis for cheaper EVs can be proven and de-risked.

And the final stage is, Robotaxi and Optimus help provide the income steams to build new factories.

We can question the aspects of the pivot that involve human communication, staff layoffs etc.

But provided FSD is good enough to support Robotaxis, the actual strategy seems sound.

 

[Dutchie]

I have the proxy statements for a couple old days now and I don’t know what to do.
On the one hand I feel it is not fair to come back on what has been agreed upon.

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us - the Twitter fiasco still stings.
Also the ever increasing outlandish projection regarding robots, FSD, AI, number of giga factories etc. more often than not fail to come to fruition especially in the timeframe mentioned by Elon. It is just getting harder to take him seriously. Yes, he has done some amazing things in the past, but the real revolutionary things like landing rockets on barges in the middle of the ocean; that has been a while already.

I like FSD but I don’t see robotaxis happening any time soon and I also doubt the market projections for that.

 

[phantasms]

I have the proxy statements for a couple old days now and I don’t know what to do.
On the one hand I feel it is not fair to come back on what has been agreed upon.

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us - the Twitter fiasco still stings.
Also the ever increasing outlandish projection regarding robots, FSD, AI, number of giga factories etc. more often than not fail to come to fruition especially in the timeframe mentioned by Elon. It is just getting harder to take him seriously. Yes, he has done some amazing things in the past, but the real revolutionary things like landing rockets on barges in the middle of the ocean; that has been a while already.

I like FSD but I don’t see robotaxis happening any time soon and I also doubt the market projections for that.

It sounds like you know what to do my friend.

 

[Tachyon]

I have the proxy statements for a couple old days now and I don’t know what to do.
On the one hand I feel it is not fair to come back on what has been agreed upon.

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us - the Twitter fiasco still stings.
Also the ever increasing outlandish projection regarding robots, FSD, AI, number of giga factories etc. more often than not fail to come to fruition especially in the timeframe mentioned by Elon. It is just getting harder to take him seriously. Yes, he has done some amazing things in the past, but the real revolutionary things like landing rockets on barges in the middle of the ocean; that has been a while already.

I like FSD but I don’t see robotaxis happening any time soon and I also doubt the market projections for that.

You know what one should do , when they already know what to do but need a reason to do what needs done ?
Conduct a poll on Twitter, so that everyone knows what you are gonna do and take advantage of it .

 

[Thekiwi]

The Tesla Master Plan version 1,2 & 3 authored by Elon were all about transitioning the world to sustainable transport by rolling out massive quatities of EVs to replace the worlds ICE fleet, rolling out massive battery cell output to enable vast amounts of stationary storage to complement renewable energy generation to replace fossil fuel generation.

I’m all for robotaxis and Optimus, but if they are now the main focus of the company, with EVs & Energy now “side quests” that is a major shift in the master plan for the company, and one should expect the company to be evaluated very differently until the huge new bets are proven out or not.