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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Is there really any truth to the continued notion that there are so called "market makers" who can actually (substantially) influence a stock's price? The last time I checked the market was made up of buyers and sellers, and every time I place an order it fills based on the best available offer from the opposite party. So how could someone completing order requests affect the price?

Right, and you also should just vote and be happy with the result. Wait, what I actually meant to say was: Read https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt/dp/0393351599 for some insight on how rigged this was already in 2015 and before then.
 
Is there really any truth to the continued notion that there are so called "market makers" who can actually (substantially) influence a stock's price? The last time I checked the market was made up of buyers and sellers, and every time I place an order it fills based on the best available offer from the opposite party. So how could someone completing order requests affect the price?
Yes, market makers are a real thing. When options open up for a particular security, none of them actually exist yet. Suppose I'm the first person who wants to buy a September 2019 $435 TSLA call... who would I buy it off? The market maker would have specified an ask price based on the stock price, time, volatility, etc, and when I place a bid they will write the contract to sell it to me. I think (but not expert here) that many of the big brokerage houses act as market makers.
 
Again,, are you saying these are INVENTORY cars?

Some care probably are technically inventory cars, but not in the usual sense. Optimization may include building cars that will be ordered in the next week or two, even while there have many cars in the order queue.

This happens with the S/X, but on a much smaller scale. Occasionally someone gets a vehicle very fast because Tesla built it before they ordered. This allows Tesla to smooth S/X production to 2000/week. Cars immediately not sold as new become loaners for a bit. This is a much more profitable way to run a factory rather than simple build to order.

This is standard operations research modeling using linear programing. A claim that "Tesla is making cars they haven't sold" is from either ignorance or malice. Tesla would be incompetent if they weren't mathematically optimizing production.
 
I think (but not expert here) that many of the big brokerage houses act as market makers.


generally brokerage and market making are separate business entities, separate functions, subject to separate sets of regulations. unless you’re referring to crossing customer orders or “internalization” of orders

but that isn’t the point anyway. i think we’re talking about order and execution and everything that can happen in between.
what happens with your order is not so simple and depends on your broker really.

your orders;
this doc is a pretty good summary;
SEC.gov | Trade Execution:

in my search i actually found this (dated a couple years now) pdf about how interactive brokers does it. note, they don’t sell order flow. but reading this document youll find other market practices that are out there, and deduce what some other brokers do. and it has some deeper detail https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.c...rmSampleView?ad=order_routing_disclosure.html

lots of factors determine order routing, including maker-taker rules for liquidity makers/takers What Maker-Taker Fees Mean to You

so yes @brantse, @ggr it’s possible you can get hosed, if that’s what you were alluding to, but generally not too bad compared to pre-electronic trading.
 
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All the local car dealers too. As Bjorn would say sheeeet.


Your running a car factory. Two constraints

1) Cars must be painted in batches of 500 per color
2) Cars must be shipped to stores in batches of 7

Under these conditions you have two choices: A) Give customers the choice of one color per store, or 2) Cache cars

Personally I would restrict Michigan buyers to only red Model 3s. But that is just me.

Apologies for the digression, but this kind of caching (worst case of 3500 cars) is also what is used to prevent typical scratches on an audio CD from becoming audible: You find a big rectangle, and fill in rows of bits/cars and take them out by the column. A whole sequence of damaged bits on the audio CD thus gets spread out, see Burst error-correcting code - Wikipedia
(For a data CD, where no errors can be tolerated a simpler error-correcting code has to be added.)
PS. Please enlighten me, does the combination of red and Michigan refer to some joke?
 
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Nah, they'll all have whacky names like Ford Zippy or the Chevvy EleKtroN, BMW ReVolt, Volkswagen Sputnik, or some other crap. But they'll all have neon/LED lights around the outside, that'll bring the punters in...

All yet to be designed, all yet to be made, all yet to have a simple and fast charging infrastructure, to charge batteries that can't yet be shipped, because the factories aren't yet built.

AND ALL BY THE END OF THE YEAR!

Edited: because it was utter gibberish
Yeah but they are all already on clearance sale. Even car dealers have trouble selling dreck.
 
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Same for everyone else, I think! I only remember it because I saw one, or rather the PHEV version. Actually I think the colour was nicer than the car.

It's the sort of car your grand-dad would enjoy...
And what about the Bolt? I have seen one once. It looked just like every other small GM hatchback, but it is available.
 
Yes, market makers are a real thing. When options open up for a particular security, none of them actually exist yet. Suppose I'm the first person who wants to buy a September 2019 $435 TSLA call... who would I buy it off?
Actually my broker allows me to write and buy calls and puts, both security based and naked. So they become available as people create them for you to buy.
 
Right, and you also should just vote and be happy with the result. Wait, what I actually meant to say was: Read https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt/dp/0393351599 for some insight on how rigged this was already in 2015 and before then.
I’m a professional HFT trader. This book is complete BS. Michael Lewis was manipulated by the IEX founder to market his exchange.

Professional HFTs do not manipulate the market, we are highly quantitative and generally take small positions. The manipulators are manual traders trading on screens. I know the two most famous ones by name, as they are part of the lore of the industry (search Igor of 3red).

We bring the bid/ask spread down to minimal levels and are a net benefit for retail investors, but much like Tesla, we have disrupted incumbents who seek to publicly deride us for their own benefit.
 
I’m a professional HFT trader. This book is complete BS. Michael Lewis was manipulated by the IEX founder to market his exchange.

Professional HFTs do not manipulate the market, we are highly quantitative and generally take small positions. The manipulators are manual traders trading on screens. I know the two most famous ones by name, as they are part of the lore of the industry (search Igor of 3red).

We bring the bid/ask spread down to minimal levels and are a net benefit for retail investors, but much like Tesla, we have disrupted incumbents who seek to publicly deride us for their own benefit.

IDK, it was about that time that I worked at a HPC manufacturer and we sure built a lot of expensive low latency networks connected clusters for traders that sounded just like the flash-boys story, trying to get ahead of the trade by being faster a few milliseconds and doing basically what I would call insider trading by getting their clusters as close as possible to the exchange with fibre optics etc.
 
IDK, it was about that time that I worked at a HPC manufacturer and we sure built a lot of expensive low latency networks connected clusters for traders that sounded just like the flash-boys story, trying to get ahead of the trade by being faster a few milliseconds and doing basically what I would call insider trading by getting their clusters as close as possible to the exchange with fibre optics etc.
The need for speed is due to competition. Generally being at the front of a price level is profitable while being at the back is not. Many models have similar signals so the fastest to execute will be profitable and the slowest players will be starved. Basic latency arbitrage existed in the early days but those opportunities are completely gone. You would not believe how incredibly efficient markets are in short time scales.
 
You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...

OMG! Somebody screen shot this puppy and repost it in January so we can have a good ‘remember when...’ laugh.
 
I’m a professional HFT trader. This book is complete BS. Michael Lewis was manipulated by the IEX founder to market his exchange.

Professional HFTs do not manipulate the market, we are highly quantitative and generally take small positions. The manipulators are manual traders trading on screens. I know the two most famous ones by name, as they are part of the lore of the industry (search Igor of 3red).

We bring the bid/ask spread down to minimal levels and are a net benefit for retail investors, but much like Tesla, we have disrupted incumbents who seek to publicly deride us for their own benefit.

i disagreed with first post because the book did have some accuracy as far as the points on the need for speed - which you ended up eluding to in your second post anyway, and which @Skryll mentioned as well. i know network engineers that related intimately with certain parts of the book.

The need for speed is due to competition. Generally being at the front of a price level is profitable while being at the back is not. Many models have similar signals so the fastest to execute will be profitable and the slowest players will be starved. Basic latency arbitrage existed in the early days but those opportunities are completely gone. You would not believe how incredibly efficient markets are in short time scales.

im sure we’d agree not every trader is the same as not every HFT is the same as MM etc etc.
but i also i agree with you for the most part that hfts have been spun in a negtive light. i imagine its bc you helped put a lot of market makers out of business, and they didn’t go down quietly. their argument was hfts aren’t subject to same regulations as MMs, but they reap all the benefits, mainly bc they must continuously quote while hfts can walk away in bad conditions while MMs get hammered. in some ways i guess MMs can be considered the original form of high frq trading. i have no opinion on this, regardless, just saying what i’ve read and seen.

but my question is if someone can manipulate a market manually, then why couldn’t they do same with high frequency algos as well? based upon the speed and efficiency argument, that would imply they would be able to generate even more impact, or at least do it much more efficiently.
while your shop may not do the negative things that been associated with hft’s in the press, it’s def possible that some can/do.

i looked up the igor thing...
ahh they were spoofing and got caught
thanks for tip!
 
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Actually my broker allows me to write and buy calls and puts, both security based and naked. So they become available as people create them for you to buy.
Of course you can. But look at the open interest for
TSLA180803C00245000
which is at this instant 0. And yet I am sure I could buy or sell one. That's because a market maker steps in and creates the other end of the transaction.
 
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Can someone remind me what gross margin for bare bone 35K model?

Also looks like there are many who really want the 35K base (just battery EV), no extras/ no frills .. so at what volume 7K/week -10k/wk would it make sense for going after the 35K market.

Just a thought, the 35K could come in 2 flavors.
i. 35K with no extra features ... remove the cameras, etc and just give low end market what they want
ii. 35K+ with camera etc, but all features turned off with option to upgrade in future ...

Also one thing no one is talking about .. but I think when the Tesla killer does really arrive in volume, TSLA could unleash the 35K in mass volume (this is the reverse of scenario JP Morgan describes ...)

week end OT .. have at it ...
 
Can someone remind me what gross margin for bare bone 35K model?

Also looks like there are many who really want the 35K base (just battery EV), no extras/ no frills .. so at what volume 7K/week -10k/wk would it make sense for going after the 35K market.

Just a thought, the 35K could come in 2 flavors.
i. 35K with no extra features ... remove the cameras, etc and just give low end market what they want
ii. 35K+ with camera etc, but all features turned off with option to upgrade in future ...

Also one thing no one is talking about .. but I think when the Tesla killer does really arrive in volume, TSLA could unleash the 35K in mass volume (this is the reverse of scenario JP Morgan describes ...)

week end OT .. have at it ...

Munro said double digits GM for 35k model. Not sure Tesla has ever said GM for the various trims but rather just an overall GM. And that number escapes me. 25-28%?

And for the love of chocolate, there will never be a Tesla killer as long as JB and Elon walk this planet.
 
Can someone remind me what gross margin for bare bone 35K model?

Also looks like there are many who really want the 35K base (just battery EV), no extras/ no frills .. so at what volume 7K/week -10k/wk would it make sense for going after the 35K market.

Just a thought, the 35K could come in 2 flavors.
i. 35K with no extra features ... remove the cameras, etc and just give low end market what they want
ii. 35K+ with camera etc, but all features turned off with option to upgrade in future ...

Also one thing no one is talking about .. but I think when the Tesla killer does really arrive in volume, TSLA could unleash the 35K in mass volume (this is the reverse of scenario JP Morgan describes ...)

week end OT .. have at it ...

No way they make a model 3 without cameras. They provide a huge advantage to Tesla even if they aren't turned on by the customer.

Tesla will start making the 35k version as soon as they don't have a backlog of old reservations that want a higher config vehicle. They still are making cars for line waiters that want P or D.

I'm guessing 10% margin on 35k base model.
 
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