TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[vigleik]

We’re down $12 in pre-market trading. The wsj article, I’m guessing.

 

[sundaymorning]

We’re down $12 in pre-market trading. The wsj article, I’m guessing.

The Wall Street Journal is owner by Rupert Murdoch, who has stakes in Genie Oil. He also owns many other “news” groups.

 

[schonelucht]

I don't think they can. The memo could contain pretty sensitive information or be covered under NDA.

Parties that are undergoing a negotiation typically agree that the negotiation be confidential, at least until its conclusion.

Tesla posts the memo, they kill any chance to get something from the other party. Negotiations 101. Same reason it’s in the interest of a weak supplier to leak the memo. Draw out stronger suppliers to be public about their position and indirectly strengthening their hand.

 

[sundaymorning]

Guys (and gals?), we enter a critical period. I expect full-Plaid FUD for the newt week until we get to the EC. So gird your loins, keep the faith and get noisy via any channel you have to push-back against the total BS that's raining down upon us.

I see how this procurement memo going to be negatively spun, basically if there's any sign of profitability, the enemy will call "foul" and say it's an artificial situation engineered by Elon - same as they basically did for the 5k/w end of June.

Stay strong, our future is at stake!!

I agree it’s time to push back on other sites, yahoo, twitter etc. Bring it or continue to take the beating. Up to you, it’s your money.

 

[dhrivnak]

WOT NO XPURTS ???

My take is they are having issues getting enough batteries as the seem quite hard to get. But I hope soon it too will be a profit center.

 

[schonelucht]

I used to work in Procurement at a F500... there is nothing alarming at all. We asked for suppliers to adjust contracts many times and often included rebates (although not frequently)....to take this one piece and report it as Tesla is having cash difficulties is false and disingenuous.

Interesting. Tbh I’ve only been at the ‘procured’ end of this negotiation. Being asked/forced to reduce your price with x% next quarter, accept extended payment terms etc. All normal. Asked to provide a rebate on work delivered and paid for 2 years ago, not so much. Is that really common?

 

[rameshbende]

We’re down $12 in pre-market trading. The wsj article, I’m guessing.

As expected by me next 7 days there will be lot of FUD. Bears have last chance.After Earnings release with 15K plus production and deliveries in July stock will take off. Bears know that production problems are behind us now.They have limited time after ER Tesla will be unstoppable.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks to 28_delays_later for this find - from one year ago:

Tesla Suppliers Raise Prices To Meet Quality, Timeline Targets

28_delays_later on Twitter

"This is the norm in the industry. Get a car to market, perfect it, then cut costs. But we’re not so sure the Model X got to that perfect it stage just yet, so maybe it’s a little early to look into cost-cutting measure. Just saying."

 

[mongo]

Look you have me and TSLA_Hopeful saying this is really not that abnormal. Seeing as I saw it twice in a three year span and I'm not in procurement I'd say it's not "HIGHLY unusual".

Yes balance sheet and all the rest we've heard it before, not even going to agree or disagree, we're just saying this story is another shrug in reality and is neither here nor there in terms of OMG Tesla needs cash meow.

I agree with you, if they do need money at the end of the day I'd bet they do that... which is really counter to your original point. You negotiate with suppliers from future discounts to asking for cash back because that's what a good company does. Seen it all before.

EDIT: Let me add the reasoning on why you ask for the cash back in the first place instead of just credit or future discount. When you are asking for cash it's usually because the vendor *sugar* the bed in some way, my case was promised feature not working and early failure of product. You ask for money back as a shot across the bow because the other two options lock you into that supplier in the future. So you're basically saying look you cost me money and you are going to pay me for that and we MAY decide to continue forward with you given the price is right AND you clean up your act.

To me that's the most likely case and what happens from my experience. However if Tesla was specifically asking for this deal from all vendors I would worry that they are being that much of a dick to all their vendors. But that wouldn't even make sense in the first place as to me there's usually a reason to ask for that.

For all we know, this supplier could be the company responsible (in terms of building the machinery) for the Model 3 module assembly debacle. Wouldn't that change the tone of the story?

Crud, could have picked up one extra share had I known this FUDicle was coming out...

 

[Tslynk67]

Some big pre-market trades, taking advantage of the bargain prices - once again: 06:02:35 $ 301.65 2,472

Wish that were me buying.

And of course a perfect change for some shorts to close their positions.

 

[gora321]

Guys (and gals?), we enter a critical period. I expect full-Plaid FUD for the newt week until we get to the EC. So gird your loins, keep the faith and get noisy via any channel you have to push-back against the total BS that's raining down upon us.

I see how this procurement memo going to be negatively spun, basically if there's any sign of profitability, the enemy will call "foul" and say it's an artificial situation engineered by Elon - same as they basically did for the 5k/w end of June.

Stay strong, our future is at stake!!

I'm waiting for the ammo... soon

 

[mongo]

Elon on Twitter

Only costs that actually apply to Q3 & beyond will be counted. It would not be correct to apply historical cost savings to current quarter.

Twitter

 

[Reciprocity]

I have posted this a few places. Specifically about Tesla's cash position:

Cash position will never be worse then it was 4 weeks ago. Going forward, it gets better every day. Did Tesla go bankrupt 4 weeks ago? Did I miss that?

 

[HG Wells]

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Big DIP. Cover now or never.

 

[Remus]

Anyone read this yet? Thoughts on meaning? Bears and bulls will be spinning.

Tesla Asks Suppliers for Cash Back to Help Turn a Profit

I freaking can't believe this can be spun. In supply chain management software, a large chunk of complexity just comes from frequent price adjustment and kickbacks. It's a common practice in all business. The author is either completely ignorant or deliberately misleading.

 

[PaulusdB]

Some big pre-market trades, taking advantage of the bargain prices - once again: 06:02:35 $ 301.65 2,472

Wish that were me buying.

And of course a perfect change for some shorts to close their positions.

Come on, people.
Less than 10,000 shares were traded today in Frankfurt up to this moment.
That's a blip of a few seconds during normal trading hours.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have posted this a few places. Specifically about Tesla's cash position:

Cash position will never be worse then it was 4 weeks ago. Going forward, it gets better every day. Did Tesla go bankrupt 4 weeks ago? Did I miss that?

Absolutely. This was the moment they pushed to hit 5k M3, setup the tent, dragged staff from other lines to M3.

Now, I think it’s a reasonsble assumption that efficiency-gains they’ve made have been reverse-engineered in the the main lines.

Of course they now have around 20k cars being sold every month, the cash is coming in. Plus a lot of North American reservations will have converted to orders.

Then you have the new orders, confirmed by Elon - which will be more cash up-front.

No, I don’t imagine for a second they have a cash-flow problem, especially given that they had $2.7billion end of Q2.

Only risk is the constant sh*t-shower which may damage Tesla’s brand for those who don’t know any better. That being said, one trip in a Tesla would wipe all that from long-term memory, mostly with a huge grin.

 

[dc_h]

But I think if it's an attempt to juice numbers for some particular quarter, then it is prone to being classified as accounting fraud by auditors. Long time ago, a Price Water House manager of auditors was giving examples of items they look for using software; a case study for data mining/anomaly detection.
One example was, a friendly customer places a large order before the quarter close because the CEO requests and promises something in the golf course, so he can meet the quarterly numbers. Next quarter that order is canceled for some reason.

if Tesla is doing something similar to juice a specific quarter's numbers at the cost of paying later, then I don't see why it is materially different from that. I suppose, it depends how strict the auditors are in sniffing these out.

It will be interesting when this short attack against Elon and Tesla is over and Elon has some time to reflect andnlawyer up. Libel and slander in twirtbybsome nobody is just twitter being twitter. When it is done by people with financial stacks in an outcome based on fraud or conspiracy it becomes legally actionable. If you do turn out to be an oil investor and represent another larger oil investor who has taken up stakes against Elon and have worked with other shorts it will be interesting to see who is legally a fraud. As far as I can tell Elon is and has been Elon. Part of Elon being Elon is proving self righteous tools wrong.
Interesting to note that Apple when it was held together with vision and charisma could have been brought down by a cabal of shorts. There’s be no smart phone like we have today, no app market or all the other amazing changes Apple brought about. Bottom line is all this will make Tesla a stronger company, hopefully it doesn’t make Elon less of a person.

 

[RobStark]

This may also have something to do with the price action. Bloomberg not seeing a sustainable 5k Model 3s per week yet.

 

[Tslynk67]

This may also have something to do with the price action. Bloomberg not seeing a sustainable 5k Model 3s per week yet.

View attachment 319340

Maybe not, but I would suspect a lot of what’s coming out of the factory right now is cars with high spec and incredibly healthy margins.