TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

Sorry, been off for a while due to trip to Brussels for EV conference there, but gotta love and gloat about this:

Tesla short seller reverses course, bullish on Tesla, and references CleanTechnica sales charts.

Short seller who is suing Tesla changes his mind: 'Tesla is destroying the competition'

Still suing Tesla. smh

But good to see some of these people waking up to the promise of Tesla and CNBC willing to publish about it.

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla's Early Earnings Report Date Likely a Positive, Morgan Stanley Says

More "news" that Tesla is on the right track.

 

[ZachShahan]

Sorry, been off for a while due to trip to Brussels for EV conference there, but gotta love and gloat about this:

Tesla short seller reverses course, bullish on Tesla, and references CleanTechnica sales charts.

Short seller who is suing Tesla changes his mind: 'Tesla is destroying the competition'

Still suing Tesla. smh

But good to see some of these people waking up to the promise of Tesla and CNBC willing to publish about it.

Not sure if he got charts from here (seems quite possible since that piece sort of blew up) or earlier posts:

18 Nasty Tesla Charts | CleanTechnica

CleanTechnica on Twitter

 

[neroden]

if susquehanna owns a significant amount of puts without TSLA shares, then they're just idiots too.

FYI: Susquehanna has large numbers of long puts, short puts, long calls, and short calls, undoubtedly at many strike prices and expiration dates. They're obviously carrying out complicated spread strategies. With Tesla's high volatility, there are probably some highly profitable spread strategies. Way too advanced for a simple put seller like me.

 

[Zaxxon]

I love you, Karen. I've appreciated your writing and analysis for a long time, but this is sheer genius.

Agreed. Exception to poetry rule granted.

ancient TMC superstition. ;-) )

Who you callin' ancient?

 

[neroden]

I have to say, an EV (any EV actually) is not a near ubiquitous product (which is what cell phones were back in 2007) that has a minimum impact on disposable income for the overwhelming majority of buyers (most smartphones - nearly all cell phones in the USA at least were subsidized at the time so the incremental cost was minimal).

There will be many winners in this space, and no one true majority seller. And, frankly if we look at the overall smartphone market Apple is #3. Majority of market profits, for sure. Overall sales WW #3.

Sure. I expect some of the other winners to be BYD, BAIC, and Geely; it's shaking out already. Tesla is, astoundingly, ahead of all three on production, and appears to have a higher gross profit margin as well.

 

[Joe F]

TSLA up 10% when NASDAQ is down 1.3%.

Not a single mention of Tesla yet on CNBC... been watching for a couple hours now.

Yeah, I know. Funny, right?

There have actually been a few, but low key.

I thought Phil LeBeau's mention of the autos today really funny as there was no Tesla in his chart, and at the end he just smirked at the camera as if to say, "Nope, not gonna mention Tesla at all!"

 

[humbaba]

Tesla's Early Earnings Report Date Likely a Positive, Morgan Stanley Says

More "news" that Tesla is on the right track.

Its like they just opened their eyes and uncovered their ears. "Oh, look, wow! No one could have seen that this was coming." Not a single one is using new data to excuse this sudden change of heart. Such heartfelt insincerity surely warms the cockles of someone's heart. But not mine.

 

[Tslynk67]

CAT down 10%

That's what happens when you invest in Fisker...

 

[Wooloomooloo]

TSLA up 10% when NASDAQ is down 1.3%.

Not a single mention of Tesla yet on CNBC... been watching for a couple hours now.

Short seller who is suing Tesla changes his mind: 'Tesla is destroying the competition'

 

[Reciprocity]

If you've got a few hundred million dollars, you can get any of the big-dealer investment banks to write you a custom contract. The only catch is, you have to worry about whether Goldman Sachs / JP Morgan will default due to bankruptcy -- like the very first guy in The Big Short worries about when he makes his custom contract.

Looks like I a few hundred millions short. Can I barrow a few hundreds of millions Neo?

 

[Fact Checking]

Not a single mention of Tesla yet on CNBC... been watching for a couple hours now.

They are waiting for the right time slot to talk about it - 23:55 PST perhaps?

And tomorrow it's going to be old news already, and there's no need to repeat old news. They do have Chanos on standby though, next time a TSLA drop of $5 requires some breaking news expert commentary.

 

[tivoboy]

Sure. I expect some of the other winners to be BYD, BAIC, and Geely; it's shaking out already. Tesla is, astoundingly, ahead of all three on production, and appears to have a higher gross profit margin as well.

VWAG is going to be a net gross winner too. I'm pretty certain of it. Their problem overall is conglomerate fragmentation, but they will have battery and electric technology (batteries, suppliers, manufacturing efficiencies, charging network, third party accessories) economies of scale that no other single OEM has/will have.

No ONE brand will be a huge winner probably, but across VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Porsche, Lambo, etc. their gross sales will be compelling pretty soon. More international at first, but NA within 12-18 months.

 

[Tslynk67]

Reading the Citron report, I couldn't help but notice that they basically reproduced
this post by @ZachShahan from CleanTechnica, a fellow TMC member and one the most vocal "spokeperson" of this community¹.
This means... they watch us, and slowly responsible/rational shorts will understand.
Very proud of this community.

¹ of course, kudos to him personally too ;-)

They stole Zach's charts too, which I find funny and referencing Electrek, etc. Could've thrown a bone to TMS while they were at it...

Here's the link again for anyone that didn't happened to read it yet:
https://citronresearch.com/wp-conte...opinion-on-Tesla-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf

Honestly, it's surreal, I'm not sure I've ever read a more bullish article on Tesla - it's like Ben Kallo, Trippin' Trip and Cathie Wood on acid; and from a short-seller! Really weird.

I think my favourite quote is on the opening page: Rumors of the Tesla killers have been as constant and unfounded as Bob Lutz's call for Tesla's bankruptcy.

Worth noting that they spelt bankwupcy incorrectly though...

 

[X Fan]

I don't see why you love it. It's kind of embarrassing, to be honest.

They reported on car sales only and completely neglected to mention the overall market and the shift to SUVs that's now so complete that manufacturers are basically giving up on cars.

Here are BMW's September sales:
http://bmwmedia.iconicweb.com/media...2_September_2018_BMW_Group_US_Sales_Chart.pdf

Ignore the X5 drop. There's a new X5 coming next month.
Look at the 3 Series and the X3 changes.

Here's Mercedes's September release:
Look at the C Class and the GLC.

Here's Audi's September release:
Audi Newsroom

Look at the Q5. Look at how other numbers have pretty much held or increased.

There could well be a Tesla effect in the numbers, but the report completely ignores the flip to SUVs in the market and ascribes the changes to Tesla.

It also ignores the general market. Premium has outperformed mainstream, but it would hardly be surprising to see the premium segment flattening and falling.

Thanks for report...it's amazing how few Audi A6-8s are now being sold. I agree re: market shift in USA to SUV's is in play but I also think the Mfgs. and dealers recognize they need to shift marketing resources to that segment since Tesla is eating their lunch in sedans.

Once the Y is unveiled, it's lights out for the traditional mfg.....I only wish it was being shipped next year!

 

[f?Re]

wondering how long to hold the feb 340c
avg price 16.74.
something tells me i should keep them

Oh, I would keep holding that. If we continue here tomorrow pre ER that call might get silly so think about selling a tad. If ER is SUPERB, and we shoot to 310/315$, that call will pay for a new model 3. ;-)

I'm holding my 1 Feb 330 (@ 18.20) through ER, possibly into mid-December when I expect post-Thanksgiving drives to drive demand and additional positive news (FUD for shorts?) to come out.
Otherwise, also happy about movement today with a several larger magnitude stock position, but unfortunately no time to rhyme

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like something is going wrong in the Fracking patch.

Silica sand is down, 3m is down, CAT is down. All are related to fracking. Is oil at a top? Boy, if not so long on TSLA it would be an interesting time to short the fracking patch.

They can go frack themselves...

 

[Foghat]

Sorry, been off for a while due to trip to Brussels for EV conference there, but gotta love and gloat about this:

Tesla short seller reverses course, bullish on Tesla, and references CleanTechnica sales charts.

Short seller who is suing Tesla changes his mind: 'Tesla is destroying the competition'

Still suing Tesla. smh

But good to see some of these people waking up to the promise of Tesla and CNBC willing to publish about it.

Word of caution: the propaganda and actions of this individual as well as others was intent on making Tesla go bankrupt. I’m far from allowing them to get a pass, which only incentivizes them to continue criminal activity in the future. They must be marginalized not celebrated in my opinion. Just this weekend, I saw a short hedge fund manager post multiple fake customer tweets as well as fire tweet with the intention of making people believe Tesla’s spontaneously caught on fire. It’s just so blantant and it’s to no benefit to allow this to become acceptable.

CNBC did extended report that new car sales are down. Even mentioned BMW massive recalls. Did not even mention Tesla, an American success story and incredible sales growth story right now. Up at times over 10% today.

Not once.

We must marginalize those sources that continue to omit reality. We must promote those sources and individuals that bring us real, non propaganda information. Everyone will be better for it.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla's Early Earnings Report Date Likely a Positive, Morgan Stanley Says

More "news" that Tesla is on the right track.

Shorts are outgunned:

He rates the car maker at the equivalent of a hold with a price target of $291. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the company has 10 buys, 12 holds, 13 sells, and an average price target of $304.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm no Andrew Left fan, not by any means...but just read the report. WOW!!! They nailed it.

They sure did. Is this fishy or what? Don't get me wrong, I'm tickled pink that one of the most notorious short sellers is now leading the charge into battle on the Long side! He made plenty of money I'm sure over the last 2 months and now Left will make out like a bandit again by suddenly and drastically changing sides. Chanos can't be very happy with Mr. Left today. This is crazy stuff.