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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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They stole Zach's charts too, which I find funny and referencing Electrek, etc. Could've thrown a bone to TMS while they were at it...

Here's the link again for anyone that didn't happened to read it yet:
https://citronresearch.com/wp-conte...opinion-on-Tesla-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf

Honestly, it's surreal, I'm not sure I've ever read a more bullish article on Tesla - it's like Ben Kallo, Trippin' Trip and Cathie Wood on acid; and from a short-seller! Really weird.

I think my favourite quote is on the opening page: Rumors of the Tesla killers have been as constant and unfounded as Bob Lutz's call for Tesla's bankruptcy.

Worth noting that they spelt bankwupcy incorrectly though...

Perfect! Can we file an amicus brief against Citron in their lawsuit? Their research report referenced an Oct 3rd cleantechnica article, which means they could've known about it as early as 3 weeks ago, but only released the report now. Or is that not enough proof?
 
Not at all questioning any of that. But you’re living in dreamland if you think this guy will stay long from here on out. He’s a scumbag. He’ll go short again at some point, mark my words. His spots haven’t changed, he just put a coat on.

I see his spots a bit differently: He'll go where he thinks he can make (easy) money. If Tesla(not to be confused with TSLA) continues to really take off, he'll likely stay long. If not, or if he thinks TSLA can be easily nudged into dropping again, he'll go short again. I wouldn't expect any loyalty to the cause or anything, but I also wouldn't expect spite for spite's sake.
 

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

To simplify production, many Tesla Model S & X interior configs, will no longer be available after Nov 1. Order now to be sure of the one you want.

11:28 AM - 23 Oct 2018

Usually if you intend to simplify production you either want more output with the same effort or you want a better margin with the same input and finally you only can reduce options if you have a demand that exceeds supply by a larger margin.
 
Elon just tweeted this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"To simplify production, many Tesla Model S & X interior configs, will no longer be available after Nov 1. Order now to be sure of the one you want."​

My reading: Tesla wants to really increase S+X production in Q4, and are simplifying assembly to be able to speed it up. Q4 revenue estimates just went up. ;)
 
Elon just tweeted this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"To simplify production, many Tesla Model S & X interior configs, will no longer be available after Nov 1. Order now to be sure of the one you want."​

My reading: Tesla wants to really increase S+X production in Q4, and are simplifying assembly to be able to speed it up. Q4 revenue estimates just went up. ;)

I thought battery supply was fixed though...maybe this will just allow them to reduce worker costs and increase the margin.
 
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Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

To simplify production, many Tesla Model S & X interior configs, will no longer be available after Nov 1. Order now to be sure of the one you want.

11:28 AM - 23 Oct 2018

Usually if you intend to simplify production you either want more output with the same effort or you want a better margin with the same input and finally you only can reduce options if you have a demand that exceeds supply by a larger margin.

Or they are simplifying to prepare retooling for an interior refresh? Followed by crazy new sales of course. :D
 
VWAG is going to be a net gross winner too. I'm pretty certain of it. Their problem overall is conglomerate fragmentation, but they will have battery and electric technology (batteries, suppliers, manufacturing efficiencies, charging network, third party accessories) economies of scale that no other single OEM has/will have.

No ONE brand will be a huge winner probably, but across VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Porsche, Lambo, etc. their gross sales will be compelling pretty soon. More international at first, but NA within 12-18 months.

I agree.

Still issues with leadership, but see them as becoming the #1 major automaker (other than Tesla) in EVs.

[Edit: changed "being" to "becoming." Obviously are not right now.]
 
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They stole Zach's charts too, which I find funny and referencing Electrek, etc. Could've thrown a bone to TMS while they were at it...

Here's the link again for anyone that didn't happened to read it yet:
https://citronresearch.com/wp-conte...opinion-on-Tesla-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf

Honestly, it's surreal, I'm not sure I've ever read a more bullish article on Tesla - it's like Ben Kallo, Trippin' Trip and Cathie Wood on acid; and from a short-seller! Really weird.

I think my favourite quote is on the opening page: Rumors of the Tesla killers have been as constant and unfounded as Bob Lutz's call for Tesla's bankruptcy.

Worth noting that they spelt bankwupcy incorrectly though...

Yeah, it's honestly hard to imagine it's not a trick of some sort. :p

Did they have an awakening at long last?
 
Elon just tweeted this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"To simplify production, many Tesla Model S & X interior configs, will no longer be available after Nov 1. Order now to be sure of the one you want."​

My reading: Tesla wants to really increase S+X production in Q4, and are simplifying assembly to be able to speed it up. Q4 revenue estimates just went up. ;)
If they are still limited by Panasonic output of the ‘old’ cells, this is likely related to margin improvement (in the context of demand still exceeding supply), but sure will help if they can push few hundreds more with less work...
 
I thought battery supply was fixed though...maybe this will just allow them to reduce worker costs and increase the margin.

That's true, broadly, but I believe their wording was always a cautious "approximately 100,000 units" - which allows for higher production, if Panasonic is able to deliver more cells.

While Panasonic is unlikely to have expanded their production of 18,600 cells in any capex intense manner, I find it pretty unlikely that over the course of 2 years they found no way to increase cell supply. At this point it's clear that Tesla is going to migrate to 2170 cells eventually, and it's in the best interest of Panasonic as well to sell as many 18,650 cells as they can make.

So there could be a bit of an upside surprise there.

The higher margin cannot hurt either: especially if the Model 3 margin has improved, in which case they'd want to eliminate lower margin options from the S/X line-up, to convert those customers to the Model 3 or to higher price Model S/X versions.
 
Curious, could you file a DMCA takedown for using your charts? Or would this be protected by Fair Use(education, maybe?)?

I'm not sure. I politely asked him to give proper credit and complimented him on an objective, useful article. Figure it's better to be friendly and encourage the positive work rather than slam a potentially opening door. Good of them to at least include two charts and report on the news.

Also, as an editor, I know I often think it's fine to use charts from others if the name is on there — takes a little extra consideration to add a link and full credit (which we do try to do).
 
I hope he slightly beats estimates and plays it cool. I hope there's a decent bump after EC; which then sets it up for bigger pop when board members are announced and more positive announcements that they are teeing up for the next few weeks.

I like your lists, except
"-how big is M3 order book/demand" - I just feel the backlog is a trap. Too easy to spin as fud if the backlog is filled, which is obv just par for the course.
Also hope nothing about Saudis is brought up. It's a very charge topic now.
I am hoping they are able to harp on not only is there still demand/etc (on account of only serving two markets out of all the markets Tesla normally serves) but that they know that X number of reservations that had indicated waiting on SR decided to pull the trigger on MR, increasing revenue/whatever from those customers.
 
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