TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mrr82]

If you follow the Model 3 lot pictures thread over in the Model 3 subforum (you should if an investor), it looks like there's a dramatic uptick in truck loading activity from that lot. Most pictures and reports from various times of the day indicate about 10 semis loading and hauling away cars at any one time.

Latest report is there were tons of trucks even late at night.

I have a feeling that even though total delivery numbers for Q1 will be lower than most of us expected, they will be close to or will exceed the 2,500/wk number exiting Q1.

I think market may not be expecting this (especially due to the lag of the Bloomberg tracker), and there will be a big correction upward. Today is the last day to get in. If you want easy money, buy today.

Just a hunch and I could be wrong of course, but I base this on truck activity relative to levels we saw at that lot earlier this month.

I'm feeling pretty good about profits coming consistently within about a quarter. Whether Tesla decides to go spend that for further expansion is another thing, but it's starting to look like Tesla is now back on track.

Completely agree. Add to that the huge growing backorder of S/X and if true the massive improvement in S/X production speed, I wouldn’t be surprised if they increased production to 30k/quarter next quarter as well as a big increase in deposits.

Nobody talks much about their energy business expected to grow a ton....and someday the roof will give a jolt.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Are we all going to apologize to all of the people who said that this type of correction was possible? We can talk about the potential of Tesla until the cows come home, but lots of people on this thread have been "disliked" because they were not super positive. A month ago, saying that a price of 300 would be reasonable could lead to multiple downvotes.

A straw man generalization. There are many people here, including myself, who continually warn about risk and volatility.

The real issue is that a lot of naysayers who come here get upset because they were unable to turn people here against Tesla. I got news for you: going to a Mustang forum and trying to convince people that Camarro is better will get you... nowhere.

There are plenty of places to get a view of the negative arguments against Tesla: Reddit /r/Investing and /r/RealTesla are just 2 alternative sources if you want people to agree with you. I read them. Maybe you should too.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla isn't dominating the EV market with 50% market share currently (% is way less), but if you only implied to long range EV, then yes it is taking the lead.

The year is 2022. Tesla's current 250-300 battery range will lose its magic in 2022 because it will be joined with several other players that also have this range.

Also, Tesla has participated in a side quest to build 1 million EV by 2022. But guess what, several major brands also have pledged to reach that number too. (and they have more capital resources)

Back to my point, which player will be a force to be reckon with (or the dominant leader of EV).. the answer is no one. =]

300 range ev - Google Search

2022 ev - Google Search

LoL what... Why does Tesla's 2015 technology need to dominate 2022? I have a question for you.. how many of those magical cars will see the light of day? I mean, EVs have been coming from competitors for years and the only one available today with over 200 miles of range is the bolt. And gm doesn't want to make them. They topped out at 20,000 and may raise that to 30,000 this year. Can you say "compliance car?" I guess it's better to flat out lose $10,000 a car then pay Tesla $10,000 in Zev credits.

All the completion coming and in existence today have all our some of these traits in common when compared to Tesla's products: slower, smaller, less range, more expensive, low production volumes, ugly. Ipace on the first competition and it's only competition of you don't want a bigger vehicle for the same price or a sedan for much less. They are only making 20k per year of those btw. Teslac will be at 20,000 model 3 next month. And with surpass that w with both S and X by mid year.

I don't consider Chinese cars competition. Most are golf carts.

 

[elasalle]

These analysts really have chosen the wrong profession. With all their knowledge about factory automation, they could have earned millions building not automated factories. While now those ‘amateurs’ who thought that this level of automation was feasible, actually have to build the automation (and probably did).

In short: don’t listen to financial types who claim to know something about technical issues. If they were any good at it, they wouldn’t be in the financial sector.
In Dutch we have the saying ‘De beste stuurlui staan aan wal’.

Does the Dutch stuff also mean - "don’t listen to financial types who claim to know something about technical issues" ?

 

[phil0909]

In short: don’t listen to financial types who claim to know something about technical issues. If they were any good at it, they wouldn’t be in the financial sector.
In Dutch we have the saying ‘De beste stuurlui staan aan wal’.

Fiat and Volkswagen are pretty good at it. Should we ignore the results of their experience too?

The robots are killing Tesla

 

[Starno]

Fiat and Volkswagen are pretty good at it. Should we ignore the results of their experience too?

The robots are killing Tesla

If you play the same game they are, you're doomed to lose. They have x10 the amount of resources. You need to hack the system.

 

[mongo]

Apparently you didn't see today's news. These robots are precisely the problem - Oops!

Tesla is overusing automation in Model 3 final assembly, analysts say

Tl;dr; mongo like candy, mongo hate bad math. XKCD

OMG, there is so much fail in that post (I'm serious, if people want me to spend the time needed to critique it, I will. (Too late, already did))

• Automatition is front loaded cost. Labor cost is with you forever.
• Automatation is more repeatable, reliable, and consistent that manual labor. It is inversely proportional to quality DEFECTS.
  
• Tesla already has engineers (a whole division of them) that know automated equipment.
  
• Maintenance labor rate is not the same as a programmer's rate. (But both are likely over $100/hr fully burdened)

Their numbers: $50 savings per car, $4000 capital increase per car, 7 year equipment life. So, at 100k/yr ×7years×4,000 Tesla spent an extra 2.8 Billion on robots?
5k per week, ×50 weeks×7 years×4,000 = 7 Billion extra on equipment.
Ok, who here thinks Tesla bought 7 Billion in robots?
Oh wait, they call that 550million extra in depreciation, so 550million/7years/4,000 per unit = 20,000 cars a YEAR. Did someone forget to multiply the monthly rate by 12???

If your line takes 20 people at top speed and you want to double production, you need 40 people. No economy of scale for manual operations.
If you want an automated line that can go twice as fast, spend an extra 40% on the robot up front. Boom 30% per unit cost savings (cost×1.4/2).

Back to numbers, if $4k is based on 20k per year, then at 250k per year, the automation overhead is 550million/7/250k=$314. <1% of minimum MSRP.

On top of that, they are talking by about only eliminating 5 workers! 5! The single video of dash and front seat installation is somewhere between 2 and 4 workers.

50% final line automation remove 5 hours of labor? At $20 an hour (burdened rate), that is $100 per car, not $50.

 

[Cobos]

Fiat and Volkswagen are pretty good at it. Should we ignore the results of their experience too?

The robots are killing Tesla

Yes I think Tesla really should learn something about how to make clean diesels from VW. VW have the BEST software people, they can do *magic* it seems.
Seriously the fact that VW can't get their robots to be faster than humans shows what VWs software engineers can do, not what is physically possible. A bit like landing rockets repeatedly that companies like ULA doing aerospace for about 60 years says is impossible.

Cobos

 

[Drax7]

Sorry to comment on the accident, I realise there's another thread on it, but... Dreadful that the driver died, seems to me that the biggest contributor to this outcome was the poor road maintenance. However, a small positive I take from it is that the unfortunate driver was removed from the wreckage alive, but died later in hospital. Looking at the photos of the crash and hearing the description of it, I'm astonished anyone could have survived the initial impact.

So my conclusion is that my Model X is rather safe...

Model x is super safe, however autopilot cannot be trusted if responsible for collision.
Don’t beta test with your life, wisen up.

 

[Drax7]

If you follow the Model 3 lot pictures thread over in the Model 3 subforum (you should if an investor), it looks like there's a dramatic uptick in truck loading activity from that lot. Most pictures and reports from various times of the day indicate about 10 semis loading and hauling away cars at any one time.

Latest report is there were tons of trucks even late at night.

I have a feeling that even though total delivery numbers for Q1 will be lower than most of us expected, they will be close to or will exceed the 2,500/wk number exiting Q1.

I think market may not be expecting this (especially due to the lag of the Bloomberg tracker), and there will be a big correction upward. Today is the last day to get in. If you want easy money, buy today.

Just a hunch and I could be wrong of course, but I base this on truck activity relative to levels we saw at that lot earlier this month.

I'm feeling pretty good about profits coming consistently within about a quarter. Whether Tesla decides to go spend that for further expansion is another thing, but it's starting to look like Tesla is now back on track.

More than profits, in the near term the market needs to see revenues to assure itself there are no liquidity issues.
Higher production means higher revenues and resolves the liquidity existential issues that freaked the market.

Doubts exist as to whether the machine that builds the machine will work in time
Before liquidity issues arise.

The solution , production production production

 

[Tslynk67]

Model x is super safe, however autopilot cannot be trusted if responsible for collision.
Don’t beta test with your life, wisen up.

Don't worry for me, I don't trust AP at all, hands-on-the-wheel at all times!!

Some positive news from Germany: Tesla gets back access to EV incentives and can open new Superchargers in Germany

 

[defc0n]

overall market futures looking really good this morning. still a lot of news FUD out there for TSLA though. good luck everyone.

 

[juanmedina]

overall market futures looking really good this morning. still a lot of news FUD out there for TSLA though. good luck everyone.

I sold the car that is going to fund my model 3 purchase yesterday. I hope I can get some stock at a discount today.

 

[defc0n]

I sold the car that is going to fund my model 3 purchase yesterday. I hope I can get some stock at a discount today.

Expect the early morning dip.

 

[juanmedina]

Expect the early morning dip.

I set my order at 254.... Will see what happens

 

[aznt1217]

Just an update to yesterday. Fidelity now loaned out all my shares and increased the interest rate for fully paid lending.

The battle lines are being drawn. Pick your side. For the longs, stay strong and ignore the noise.

 

[X Yes?]

I sold the car that is going to fund my model 3 purchase yesterday. I hope I can get some stock at a discount today.

Or much cheaper next week... As Clint Eastwood said: Are you felling lucky? This from Moody's:

Furthermore, in a blunt warning, Moody's gives the criteria for this further credit downgrade:

"Tesla's rating could be lowered further if there are shortfalls from its updated Model 3 production targets. The rating will also be pressured if the company is unable to raise sufficient new capital to cover its late-2018 and early-2019 convertible maturities, and to cover the operating cash consumption that will likely continue into 2019."

 

[juanmedina]

Well I did my part 59 shares at $254. Hopefully it will help me fund my P75D

 

[bdy0627]

you DO live in a parallel dimension if you believe tesla is better at manufacturing than the big companies
they produce upto 10 million cars a year, tesla is struggling to go over 100k per year and is losing huge amounts of money producing them
what is good about that? dont get blinded by all the talk

There is no question that this is currently true. I don't know how anyone could argue otherwise. This is their epic challenge right now.

 

[MP3Mike]

Can you say "compliance car?" I guess it's better to flat out lose $10,000 a car then pay Tesla $10,000 in Zev credits.

I think you mean: I guess it's better to flat out lose $10,000 a car then pay Tesla $5,000 in Zev credits. (Since Tesla said they were selling the credits for pennies on the dollar.)