TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

FWIW, Audi claims the eTron GT can charge at 800V, suggesting they’d get maximum charging speed on the v1 CCS you mentioned.

If they're doing the pack-reconfiguration technique that Taycan is doing, then they would be able to.

The fact remains that even 175kW chargers are extremely rare compared to superchargers.

Could be true, while above statement could be far in the rear view mirror soon too To name just one company; Fastned currently has 12 locations in the Netherlands (and 6 in Germany) that provide 175 KW charging service for cars able to charge at that rate. To place that number in perspective, currently there are 16 Tesla super charger stations in the Netherlands

The number to compare is not "stations", it's "chargers" and "stalls". Judging from this:

fastned station - Google Search

... Fastned stations are 2 charger / 4 stalls. The average Tesla Supercharger station has over 8 stalls and over 4 chargers. New superchargers are averaging over 10 and 5. In more densely populated / EV heavy areas, like the Netherlands, the numbers are much higher. Checking the Supercharger map for the Netherlands (incl. inactive (since an even higher portion of CCS stations are dead), and one under construction / nearly done station) I see:

2 / 1 (x1)
8 / 4 (x2)
10 / 5 (x1)
12 / 6 (x8)
16 / 8 (x3)
20 / 10 (x1)
24 / 12 (x1)
28 / 14 (x1)

Grand total: 244 stalls, 122 chargers. Versus 48 stalls, 24 chargers. And this is in the Netherlands, which has one of the highest concentrations of 175kW CCS chargers (if not the highest) in the world.

There's just no comparison to the Supercharger network when it comes to high-power chargers.

 

[dondy]

Not trying to peddle FUD here but from the people I know who have driven the Taycan they would probay disagree with you.

( and I only said probably to soften the blow)

what blow?
Are they Model S, Roadster users?
Tesla has ever growing loyal customer base. It is their way to grow.
What some anonymous "experts" with "friends" "people" etc. say is pretty much irrelevant because the fact is that Tesla is selling everything they produce. And the only thing which would change it is some company which would hold better IP and sufficient production base capable to cover existing black hole in EV market. ICE are horses and EV are cars and we are in 1908 now.

Anyway Porsche is a nuub in EV bussiness and it is quite obvious for anybody with experience with LiOn that the lead designers of Taycan are clueless goats which will blow the first generation of german hi-end EVs.

 

[anthonyj]

Not trying to peddle FUD here but from the people I know who have driven the Taycan they would probay disagree with you.

( and I only said probably to soften the blow)

No autopilot so the Taycan is irrelevant. People buy Tesla for autopilot

 

[Gavyne]

Hadn’t realized but e-tron GT won’t be out until 2021, yikes. The car has today’s standards for specs but won’t be out for at least another 3 years. Yeah Tesla has nothing to worry about.

Personally I found the Rivian reveal to be much more impressive and exciting. They at least got better specs and better tech/interface. Bjorne on YouTube checked out etron’s touchscreen and it still uses age old interface.

But with that said etron gt should attract the die hard Porsche loyalists, ones that aren’t driving a Tesla. So good for ICE conversion.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hadn’t realized but e-tron GT won’t be out until 2021, yikes. The car has today’s standards for specs but won’t be out for at least another 3 years. Yeah Tesla has nothing to worry about.

Personally I found the Rivian reveal to be much more impressive and exciting. They at least got better specs and better tech/interface. Bjorne on YouTube checked out etron’s touchscreen and it still uses age old interface.

But with that said etron gt should attract the die hard Porsche loyalists, ones that aren’t driving a Tesla. So good for ICE conversion.

From what I’ve seen, Rivian’s problem will be ramping production. They’re basically Faraday Future, albeit with a more compelling product.

EDIT: this was meant as a light caveat, not to doom them to failure. I’m hoping they’re more Tesla in 2002 and less Faraday Future in 2016. Time will tell.

 

[tivoboy]

No autopilot so the Taycan is irrelevant. People buy Tesla for autopilot

Of course...

 

[Carl Raymond]

There's enormous Tesla bias among the people who hold TSLA. There are desperate shorts looking for some foothold to sow doubt that Tesla are about to boom.

Here is the decision tree for people with a place to charge at home who do not make weekly out of range trips:

Is there a Tesla I can afford that meets my needs? Yes, buy it.
Is there another affordable EV that meets my needs? Yes, buy it.
Is there an ICEV that meets my needs? Yes, buy it.

Assumption - all EVs are priced such that the battery is less that $120/kWh. Incumbents may need to cross subsidise to achieve this, but they cannot charge more and compete. If they don't they are constrained in the dwindling ICEV market. Their hand is forced if they are to survive long term.

Assumption - packs have thermal mgmt and last the life of the car.

TSLA holders need to accept that other EVs will sell if priced low enough.
Shorts need to accept that Tesla is top of the tree and is unstoppable.

 

[EVNow]

Sorry to tell you: every party in charge gerrymanders. Politicians are so predictable both when not in charge and then in charge (ie Republicans complain about debt when not in power but when in charge spend like drunken sailors).

Depends. Dem base is averse to Gerrymandering. Ofcourse, Dem politicians still do a lot of things Dem base doesn't like - but they can also make politicians implement fair districting, like in CA. Current Republican base has a win at all cost attitude. That means their politicians can do highly undemocratic things not face the wrath of the base. "Both sideism" isn't always correct.

Mod Edit and Warning: This and many others rightfully belong at Market Politics thread or bending the subject and wording on the General discussion in rare cases. Int Prof (that's me) doesn't know how to move things; the smart mods do but are too busy. I can delete without abandon, however. This is the last one standing.

 

[KarenRei]

From what I’ve seen, Rivian’s problem will be ramping production. They’re basically Faraday Future, albeit with a more compelling product.

I can't believe how many people are taking Rivian seriously. Just to pick one example of issues out of dozens: Yes, I totally believe that a startup is going to have level 3 autonomy out in 2020! (/snark)

Anyone can make a concept car, put out a bunch of 3d drawings, and claim it's going to have everything but the kitchen sink and be available for pocket change. That doesn't make it realistic. The auto industry eats startups for lunch for a reason: it's incredibly, incredibly difficult to go from concept car to sustainable, profitable mass production. That Tesla did it is the exception that proves the rule. Production systems are the real moat of auto manufacturers, and they're built up over long periods of time at huge expense.

People talk about how Rivian bought a Mitsubishi factory. Yes, they bought the shell of a factory. For a whopping $16 million dollars. Tesla bought NUMMI for $40-something million, but they've spent billions of dollars developing it over the years, along with their extensive R&D and years upon years of testing to develop their tech. Rivian has a total of 600 employees and has raised $450M - of that, $200M is debt which they have to repay. Even if they translate the launch hype into billions of dollars of financing, it's still doubtful they'll make it just simply because even well-financed attempts to break into mass-market auto manufacture usually fail.

 

[guidooo]

There's just no comparison to the Supercharger network when it comes to high-power chargers.

Very true. When sheer number of chargers is concerned, or when amount of kwh transferred on a daily basis is the metric, then no single charging provider comes close to what Tesla is doing.

 

[anthonyj]

People buy iPhone
People don’t buy Motorola
People don’t buy Nokia
Etc.

Same thing will happen with Tesla. These big companies will not adapt to EV. It’s a huge investment. Their quarterly earnings would look like crap. They aren’t growth companies. Their stock will tank. Executives get paid in stock. They will not innovate. Simple really.

Tesla has a CEO who knows what people want. He helps design the car and it’s operating system. He tests beta versions of autopilot in his car. No other CEO does this. Why is this even a debate?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hadn’t realized but e-tron GT won’t be out until 2021, yikes. The car has today’s standards for specs but won’t be out for at least another 3 years. Yeah Tesla has nothing to worry about.

Tesla Roaster 2 will be out by then. Betcha it's faster while towing an eTron than the eTron itself.

 

[EVNow]

I'll take the other side of that bet.. the new Audi e-tron sedan is built on the Porsche Taycan platform. In a year or so when released, it will still come with about a 10% discount in north america (federal tax credits still in place for Audi) So, it'll take some of the Tesla S sales for sure and it won't be 1-3%,

You can see a long list of Tesla killers here - and how few they actually sell.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Audi e-tron will not sell more than a couple of hundred a month (similar to Audi A3 e-tron) - and will have no impact on Model S sales. If Audi was serious they would have sold a lot more A3 e-trons as well.

BTW, I'm fairly sure there will be some kind of change to the tax credits by then. Either both Model S & e-Tron will get it (common pool of 2 M instead of per manufacturer limit of 200k) - or neither will (limited to certain MSRP).

 

[tivoboy]

Audi e-tron will not sell more than a couple of hundred a month (similar to Audi A3 e-tron) - and will have no impact on Model S sales. If Audi was serious they would have sold a lot more A3 e-trons as well.
.

I’ll take this bet too. I think I’ll need to put together a google sheet to track them all ;-)

 

[JRP3]

I am 100% certain that there are Western Europeans and Brits who would buy this Audi instead of the Tesla S. ergo a Tesla S sales loss

Only if Tesla is unable to sell all the vehicles they make can it be considered a "sales loss". Otherwise every car sold that is not a Tesla would be a "sales loss".

 

[EVNow]

I am 100% certain that there are Western Europeans and Brits who would buy this Audi instead of the Tesla S. ergo a Tesla S sales loss

You could say this w.r.t. all the people buying ICE as well, right ?

Because the assumption you are making is that a materially large group of people want to buy EVs and would have bought S, but for e-tron - and Tesla can't sell those Model S to someone else. I don't think the group will be big enough to materially matter.

 

[JRP3]

TSLA holders need to accept that other EVs will sell if priced low enough.

Most TSLA holders have known that properly priced and compelling EV's will sell.

 

[printf42]

based on this logic the industry leader would always stay the industry leader. its like saying android could've never caught up to the iPhone. competition will borrow/steal and their path will not be as difficult as Tesla's was because Tesla went first. eventually there will be compelling EVs on par with Tesla.

Rate of innovation is what really matters, no one else has higher rates than Tesla today, and I couldn’t see any reason others would improve in the near future.
So, yes, Tesla will keep their leadership, and likely will widen the gap.

 

[Thekiwi]

All these mentions of Tesla rivals.

one thing we can all agree on, is that eventually nearly all cars (99%) will be EVs at some point. There will be many brands, and a lot of the current ICE vendors will still be around making EVs at scale. The question isn’t whether Tesla will kill every other vendor, but rather what share of sales does it get? Its going to be at least a few percent (I think anyone but a short would agree), and if it got double digit share (10%+) while keeping margins high this company will be valued vastly higher than it is now,

With the forthcoming competition in particular - would I be correct in saying absolutely none of these vehicles have Autonomous hardware sensors installed? That seems like a major value add for Tesla cars at the moment - the fact that one day hopefully in the next few years you will be able to upgrade the software on your car and instantly have a autonomous car. To me at least thats a far bigger feature than quicbbling over the more technical specs like differences in charging voaltages and 0-60 times etc.

 

[Fact Checking]

Rate of innovation is what really matters, no one else has higher rates than Tesla today, and I couldn’t see any reason others would improve in the near future.

Agreed: Tesla's historic R&D investments are around 20% of revenue, which is an unprecedentedly high level of innovation in the automotive industry.

The second highest in the automotive industry is around 10% of revenue IIRC, with the following caveats:

• A significant chunk of that R&D is spent on dead end ICE technologies such as engine and fuel research.
• Another big R&D expense is marketing/PR expense categorized as R&D, such as Formula 1 and other racing related spending that has only limited effect on making a better/cheaper car.
• Most of the ICE OEM research is outsourced as well to multiple partners, which makes the resulting technologies heterogeneous with comparably low levels of "whole system" level innovation and integration.
• A lot of ICE R&D happens at suppliers, with little coordination between suppliers.
• Suppliers also have R&D economic conflicts of interest: a supplier is unlikely to eliminate a part for example, by improving another component of the car, sold by another supplier. Most innovation is incremental and inertia based.

Somewhat counterintuitively, Tesla's aggressive efforts at vertical integration are not just for improving production efficiency, vertical integration is extremely important for efficiency and rate of research and innovation: instant, low latency feedback loops between factory and research engineers, with encouragement for research staff to take part in production, to get hands on experience.

This is further helped by a flattened management hierarchy and meritocracy, with few hierarchies and no forced chain of command. High pace "creative chaos."

I'd not be surprised if Tesla's R&D spending was 5-10 times more efficient than that of other carmakers, dollar for dollar, i.e. 1 billion dollars Tesla R&D expense is equivalent to 5-10 billion dollars of ICE OEM R&D expense. (!)

This is one of the less appreciated secrets of Tesla's business model: Elon perfected this style of vertical integration assisted innovation cycle at SpaceX, with truly spectacular results.

A lot of Tesla's R&D is extremely forward looking, fundamental research.