TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anticitizen13.7]

My price target is unchanged at $365.

People in general have a propensity to abhor and exaggerate uncertainty. From an evolutionary standpoint, that is what keeps animals alive in the short term. This is why I believe there is so much frenzy over whether Tesla’s production level is sustainable, and a lot of FUD around the brake test rumor.

The production numbers over the next few weeks and months should settle things down. While the market is fearful and down, it is the time to slowly accumulate.

 

[mongo]

Citation?

Sources in the proper thread:
US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

 

[BrianZ]

Question for everyone.

What are your thoughts on Tesla doing a Porsche style short squeeze?

During the Porsche short squeeze in 2008, Porsche owned 42.6% of the stock and German state of Lower Saxony owned ~20%. When Porsche announced that they own options to buy another 31.5% of VW, culminating to 94.1% of VW shares are unavailable, an instant short squeeze happened.

So I'm thinking, Couldn't Tesla do something very similar? Let's say another party wants to invest in Tesla the way Tencent did. They would approach Musk, and say, we want to buy 10% (or some chunk) of Tesla. I know that's a lot, but I can get all the shorts off your back. Here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna quietly acquire a lot of Tesla call options. Then, at a time of your choosing, you'll announce that we acquired options to buy x% of Tesla. Then there will be a short burn of the century, and we will control the rate of the short squeeze so we can make a huge profit off the short squeeze, which would fund our investment into Tesla (essentially buying Tesla shares at a huge discount due to short squeeze profits), and Tesla will get a lot of extra capital to invest in future expansion, as well as get bad actors off of Tesla for a long time.

The short sellers should be largely gone as the huge losses will force them to exit. But more importantly, this huge loss will not only deter others from doing this again, but also rob them of huge amounts of capital (could easily be 50+ billion of losses given the ~13B short interest) even if they are stupid enough to want to attempt again in the future.

Major win-win for both the investor, Tesla, and Elon Musk getting to stick it really hard to all the shorts.

Fantasy? Possibility?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Question for everyone.

What are your thoughts on Tesla doing a Porsche style short squeeze?

During the Porsche short squeeze in 2008, Porsche owned 42.6% of the stock and German state of Lower Saxony owned ~20%. When Porsche announced that they own options to buy another 31.5% of VW, meaning 94.1% of VW shares are unavailable, an instant short squeeze happened.

So I'm thinking, Couldn't Tesla do something very similar? Let's say another party wants to invest in Tesla the way Tencent did. They would approach Musk, and say, we want to buy 10% (or some chunk) of Tesla. I know that's a lot, but I can get all the shorts off your back. Here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna quietly acquire a lot of Tesla call options. Then, at a time of your choosing, you'll announce that we acquired options to buy x% of Tesla. Then there will be a short burn of the century, and we will control the rate of the short squeeze so we can make a huge profit off the short squeeze, which would fund our investment into Tesla (essentially buying Tesla shares at a huge discount due to short squeeze profits), and Tesla will get a lot of extra capital to invest in future expansion. The short sellers should be largely gone as the huge losses will force them to exit. But more importantly, this huge loss will not only deter others from doing this again, but also rob them of huge amounts of capital (could easily be 50+ billion of losses given the ~13B short interest) even if they are stupid enough to want to attempt again in the future.

Major win-win for both the investor, Tesla, and Elon Musk getting to stick it really hard to all the shorts.

Fantasy? Possibility?

...and they lived happily ever after. In prison.

 

[DaveT]

I’ve seen a lot of strange TSLA price action over the years, but Tesla meeting their 5k week/goal for Model 3 production and then TSLA losing basically 55 points from pre-market yesterday to close today has got to be one of the strangest.

 

[mongo]

Question for everyone.

What are your thoughts on Tesla doing a Porsche style short squeeze?

During the Porsche short squeeze in 2008, Porsche owned 42.6% of the stock and German state of Lower Saxony owned ~20%. When Porsche announced that they own options to buy another 31.5% of VW, meaning 94.1% of VW shares are unavailable, so an instant short squeeze happened.

So I'm thinking, Couldn't Tesla do something very similar? Let's say another party wants to invest in Tesla the way Tencent did. They would approach Musk, and say, we want to buy 10% (or some chunk) of Tesla. I know that's a lot, but I can get all the shorts off your back. Here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna quietly acquire a lot of Tesla call options. Then, at a time of your choosing, you'll announce that we acquired options to buy x% of Tesla. Then there will be a short burn of the century, and we will control the rate of the short squeeze so we can make a huge profit off the short squeeze, which would fund our investment into Tesla (essentially buying Tesla shares at a huge discount due to short squeeze profits), and Tesla will get a lot of extra capital to invest in future expansion, as well as get bad actors off of Tesla for a long time.

The short sellers should be largely gone as the huge losses will force them to exit. But more importantly, this huge loss will not only deter others from doing this again, but also rob them of huge amounts of capital (could easily be 50+ billion of losses given the ~13B short interest) even if they are stupid enough to want to attempt again in the future.

Major win-win for both the investor, Tesla, and Elon Musk getting to stick it really hard to all the shorts.

Fantasy? Possibility?

Why involve Musk? Can't that plan work completely independently with the Pentaverate announcing their acquisition after it is too late?

 

[brian45011]

Sources in the proper thread:
US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

OK, Regardless of the propriety of any thread, what is the statutory or regulatory basis of a waiver????

Is all you got:

IRS media relations specialist Anabel Marquez would only give AutoblogGreen a simple statement:

The list of vehicles posted [online] is current based on the requirements of various federal tax law provisions. As noted here, manufacturers must meet the certification and reporting requirements described in Notice 2009-89. To be listed on IRS.gov, the manufacturer must also provide the IRS with a disclosure waiver.
​

Can Ms Marquez cite any authority? (Does she work for Lois Lerner or John Koskinen?)

​

 

[Thumper]

I buy and hold only, adding on dips. I (am pretty sure I) can stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.

 

[Duffer]

I buy and hold only, adding on dips. I (am pretty sure I) can stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.

I think this could be considered an advice. Then again, that's what I do so I might be a bit partial to the idea.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I’ve seen a lot of strange TSLA price action over the years, but Tesla meeting their 5k week/goal for Model 3 production and then TSLA losing basically 55 points from pre-market yesterday to close today has got to be one of the strangest.

Yes.
I'm an engineer, and I was a research scientist. As such, I rarely deal in certainties, and nothing is ever 100% with me
And yet, this time, during the events of past two days, I'm 100% certain it's a bear raid, meant for news nullification and to create an impressions of problems with Tesla. Partially meant to influence weak long and weak shorts, and partially meant for the 'Price is Truth' technical crowd.
Hence my buying yesterday and today. I'm pacing myself to buy all the way to $280, should we get there, though I don't think bears can push us under $290.
And here I thought I wasn't gonna leverage ever again (sight )

 

[Starno]

It's also important to see what the " big guns" are doing.

If none or very few(not substantially enough) are buying or accumulating after this achieved production target, that means that's not where their eyes are.

Let's just wait next week to see how it's playing out.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I’ve seen a lot of strange TSLA price action over the years, but Tesla meeting their 5k week/goal for Model 3 production and then TSLA losing basically 55 points from pre-market yesterday to close today has got to be one of the strangest.

The “TSLA Rule” is that Maximum Pain must be inflicted on all sides.

When TSLA spiked back to 370 just 2 weeks ago, the haters were in despair and disbelief that the stock price could surge so much given production uncertainty. There was a lot of frustrated anger on Reddit and an infamous short seller gave up after suffering enormous losses.

It is my belief that Shorts and Longs will continue to be tortured by wild swings in either direction. I expect that this will only end when Tesla demonstrates sustained profitability.

 

[Open Interest]

Here's the rest of the holiday week and into the next week from last year. Shorts pulled off a powerful MMD on Monday, July 10th, but it reversed strongly. If this year continues to be similar to last then a strong bounce should not be expected this week. On the other hand, buying after a further dip on Thursday or even waiting until Friday may prove very rewarding for calls. I'm not so sure we will get the strong MMD next Monday but who knows. If we do, I will be buying it.

View attachment 314363

What is MMD, please? One of the biggest challenges of this forum is all the abbreviations.

 

[Nathan]

Yes, ironically because I expected Tesla to produce about 10k more cars than they actually did.

Seems I hit a sore spot by questioning the 5k number. I get that.

The factory is a multitude bigger than a tent that supposedly assembled 20% of lasts week production run. Yet it’s full. Weird no? Only a few months ago the factory was going to produce 10k/week yet just 4000/wk made it overflow. Weird no? When Fremont opened for business the talk of the town was how clean, spacious, organized and well lit it was. And yes, it was all those things. Taken a look at floor of recent pictures? Clean and spacious and well organized? In fact anyone paid attention to the content of those pictures? Lines of motors and seas of seats. Yet supposedly I am the one deserving to be mocked for daring to suggest that maybe some work was stockpiled?

I knew I was inviting disagrees from the usual posters mostly showing their total lack of experience in manufacturing but critical thinking capacity is really at an all time low. Hopefully we’ll heal when the stock price moves up again.

Let me just say this. Tesla will get there, that’s obvious for anyone outside of the shorts bubble. But Tesla will also not get there in the time frame you guys all are hoping for. And that’s just as obvious for anyone outside the bubble that is this investor section.

Did you mean to say "produce" or deliver? From my understanding they produced those 10k+ cars, but had them in transit to avoid hitting 200,000 before July 1, 2018. I thought it was kind of obvious that's what they were going to do.

You never answered my question about what you meant by "significant chunk" of autos in your previous post. Could you please give me a % or # ? Thanks.

 

[jhm]

Marriage is likely 100% automated on GA3, but 100% manual on GA4.

Woody Allen would have a problem with GA3.

 

[SageBrush]

With the improvements that were being made (especially near the end of the quarter), the average is not a reliable indicator of sustainable production. GA4 did not exist until late June and it is already good for 1k/wk or so...

This is the most remarkable part of the story to me. I wonder if they have anymore spare parts lying around, and what the near term production capacity of this line will be.

The shorts will of course move goal posts and find whatever there might be to whine about (or whine about something that does not even exist), but they are missing out on the celebration and recognition of remarkable goings on.

 

[dakh]

Yes.
I'm an engineer, and I was a research scientist. As such, I rarely deal in certainties, and nothing is ever 100% with me
And yet, this time, during the events of past two days, I'm 100% certain it's a bear raid, meant for news nullification and to create an impressions of problems with Tesla. Partially meant to influence weak long and weak shorts, and partially meant for the 'Price is Truth' technical crowd.
Hence my buying yesterday and today. I'm pacing myself to buy all the way to $280, should we get there, though I don't think bears can push us under $290.
And here I thought I wasn't gonna leverage ever again (sight )

I don't get it, what is so strange here? A month ago TSLA was under $300. Then there was a wave of anticipation of some serious good news. Then the good news turned out to be just delivering on what was promised to begin with, and price dropped down to pre-anticipation levels. I don't see anything new in this pattern. In fact I think there's some rational basis for it. There IS a chance of a materially important new information showing up (like China partnership), and some would be inclined to gamble on anticipation, and algos pick that up and amplify it.

Thinking a little longer term, last year's ATH was in anticipation of good M3 production ramp, that didn't happen. That materially affected Tesla's position, anticipated revenue is delayed by over half a year. $300 seems a fair price on basically nothing new showing up that would change the original $380 valuation, minus delay.

 

[BrianZ]

The “TSLA Rule” is that Maximum Pain must be inflicted on all sides.

When TSLA spiked back to 370 just 2 weeks ago, the haters were in despair and disbelief that the stock price could surge so much given production uncertainty. There was a lot of frustrated anger on Reddit and an infamous short seller gave up after suffering enormous losses.

It is my belief that Shorts and Longs will continue to be tortured by wild swings in either direction. I expect that this will only end when Tesla demonstrates sustained profitability.

Do you have a link to the short seller giving up post? I kinda wanna read this

 

[jhm]

I’ve seen a lot of strange TSLA price action over the years, but Tesla meeting their 5k week/goal for Model 3 production and then TSLA losing basically 55 points from pre-market yesterday to close today has got to be one of the strangest.

It took me by surprise. I was thinking we'd revisit $330 or maybe $325. I am humbled by the madness of bears.

 

[bpjod]

What is MMD, please? One of the biggest challenges of this forum is all the abbreviations.

MMD = Mid-Morning Dip