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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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That seriously almost made me do a spit-take... (note to self: don't read bear posts after a sip of my beverage...)

Good grief... do you even realize what you are agreeing with?? He's talking about all of the competition by the end of the year.

It's 2/3rds the way through July for goodness sakes... please to be explaining all the competition that's going to materialize in the next 5 months?

I eagerly await this insight...


You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...
MODERATOR: ALL TAKE NOTE OF MODERATOR’S RESPONSE TO THIS - POST # 20165 OR THEREABOUTS.
 
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You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...

The credit halves in January.
 
Same for everyone else, I think! I only remember it because I saw one, or rather the PHEV version. Actually I think the colour was nicer than the car.

It's the sort of car your grand-dad would enjoy...

I don't know, my grand dad drove around a 1960s yellow Toyota pickup that had at least 12 ladders strapped to it. Or at least until the State of California took it away from him.
 
All the local car dealers too. As Bjorn would say sheeeet.
Really? Tesla is build to order. They should have 0 inventory. Those Chevy units have been sold to the dealers. Better comparison is GM's profits vs. Tesla. That's an interesting comparison...

Your running a car factory. Two constraints

1) Cars must be painted in batches of 500 per color
2) Cars must be shipped to stores in batches of 7

Under these conditions you have two choices: A) Give customers the choice of one color per store, or 2) Cache cars

Personally I would restrict Michigan buyers to only red Model 3s. But that is just me.
 
You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...

I don't think they're "burning through" reservations. They've met the demand for LR RWD vehicles for reservation holders in the United States and perhaps most of the ones in Canada. They still have to go through all of the other LR configurations in the US plus all of the SR configurations in the US and Canada plus fill all reservations from other continents plus fill all of the new orders.

There are plenty of reservations and no demand shortage.
 
You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...

You know the main Model 3 competitor will have the same ramp down in EV credit at pretty much the same time, right?
 
You know the main Model 3 competitor will have the same ramp down in EV credit at pretty much the same time, right?

Yes. GM (and all the other OEM's) can easily continue to subsidize their BEV's. Tesla, with their dept service coming due, can not... Interesting to see how much cash on hand, after extraordinary measures to hit the 5K mark (for 1 week)...
 
Yes. GM (and all the other OEM's) can easily continue to subsidize their BEV's. Tesla, with their dept service coming due, can not... Interesting to see how much cash on hand, after extraordinary measures to hit the 5K mark (for 1 week)...

Maybe they can, but it doesn't seem like they're interested in doing it. Sergio Marchionne of FCA says please don't buy our EVs and GM doesn't seem interested in building very many Bolts or shipping them to areas with high demand like Norway and Canada.
 
You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...

That has nothing to do with:

1) The point made in the article

B) Your response/agreement

III) My question to you


Other than that, a stellar post.
 
Really folks, I think we all need to calm down on this "net order" business. We are collectively being hysterical about this where we have easy precedent for how this will unfold:

In 2012 the Model S was planned by the (as usual "overly optimistic and crazy wild ambitious") Tesla folks to be delivered at a rate of 12.000 / year for the years to come. (I'm happy to dig out the old investor relations slides on this). People called it optimistic and crazy because Tesla in 2011 had some 3000 reservations for the Model S. They planned to introduce the Model X to maintain demand at about 12k cars / year until the Model 3 (Model E) is coming out.

Last year Model S/X were at 100k cars (and at significantly higher average selling prices).

Today, we have roughly 400.000 reservations (compare to 3000). With a planned capacity of 500.000 cars (compare to 12.000). If history is a guide, Tesla will be production constraint for years to come (now I sound like @ValueAnalyst). What's more: the factory is humming and from the experts (Munro, the German analysts), to the car guys (see WSJ test drive of the Model 3) to the actual customers, everybody loves the car.

Even if I put on my most pessimistic and grumpy face, I can't see any problem here.

So can we stop the nonsense debate about demand? Thanks!
Wow, seems I hit a sensitive spot to cause such outpour of emotions! We could say the same things when Blackberry was at its peak :)
But you failed to refute the numbers, or explain the plot. Do you disagree that over entire Q2, cancellations outweighed new reservations? Do you disagree that Elon cherry picked a single week for some reason?

Here I made a pictorial view to make it easy for all of you to understand. All data points seem to point in the same direction. We will know soon (few quarters). May be Model Y queue opens up, and that will be the new excuse.

dir.JPG


If the leaking is this bad, Tesla may as well make such disclosures public as this would eliminate the possibility of bad actors faking the data. The whole market would be on equal playing field with authoritative data.
We will know it's bad when this "leaking" is stopped from the top. A daily production update isn't sent to the employees for nothing.

Now that I'm looking at it, why in the hell would anyone actually consider purchasing the I3. It's as expensive as a long range Telsa Model 3, has 1/3rd the range, way slower, no charging support, it look like it was designed by a 5 year old, and it's probably even harder to get.

Like, you have to be flat out stupid to buy one. It may be the single worst car on entire market today.
No one buys. They lease for around $100-$200 a month. HOV sticker with free gas at work, my friend.
 
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I have an idea for you,
Stop listening to JP Morgan. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that they are not concerned about your financial well being.

I'm not listening to them, it's all the other morons that do which annoys me!

M3P Review dropped to 2nd on WSJ website, but that still means it's being well read, I think?
 
Really? Tesla is build to order. They should have 0 inventory. Those Chevy units have been sold to the dealers. Better comparison is GM's profits vs. Tesla. That's an interesting comparison...
you do know that those dealers will add to the costs, right?
Also, the dealer doesn't get to claim a sell until it is really sold? Teslas are generally, already sold, just waiting on the delivery,, to Book The Sale.
 
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