TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mario Kadastik]

Can people PLEASE move non market action discussions to their respective threads. There are about ten threads about various subtopics of IRA, accredited, sec action etc etc. This thread is moving at such a pace with 80% being the same discussions and hypothesis rehashed every 3-5 pages that it’s nigh impossible to find the actual market relevant information!

Please use the other threads. We from EU couldn’t care less about IRA or accredited investor status, or if we do we go and read THOSE threads...

 

[SPadival]

Nope - still there 2:00 AM PDT

And some of his tweets may have actually been Grimes. See his reply to this tweet "Busted"

Matt Hartman on Twitter

 

[Mario Kadastik]

And some of his tweets may have actually been Grimes. See his reply to this tweet "Busted"

Matt Hartman on Twitter

Don't take so seriously, probably Elon tongue in cheek answer

 

[KarenRei]

A simple way to get more backers is for Elon to put them on the semi, drive them from Fremont to GF. Show them the numbers are for reals. Deal should close upon reaching GF

"In other news, thirty of the world's wealthiest individuals were killed today in an accident on I-80 involving an electric semi. Apparently they had been illegally loaded into the trailer like cattle, where there are no passenger safety systems or even climate control..."

 

[KarenRei]

About the 8-K: Do we think we'll see this Monday (4 business days after the tweet)? Near (after?) the end of the trading day? If we do see one, is there any information in it that would be material? If we don't see one, would that be a meaningful liability?

 

[avoigt]

For those "shorts" believing there is anything substantial behind the lawsuit.

"One expert, Jill Fisch, a business law professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, said Chamberlain's and Issac's lawsuits will only be successful if they can prove Musk and Tesla did not actually seek or "secure" funding for the transaction.

Even a "preliminary commitment" with an investor or bank would be enough to support the idea that Musk's statements were made in "good faith," Fisch said. So, even if Musk did post the tweet hoping to damage short sellers by boosting Tesla stock price, it wouldn't be illegal unless it were untrue, she said."

How do you prove that someone actually did not see to secure funding? Thats impossible.

Two lawsuits accuse Elon Musk of false statements to boost Tesla share price

 

[oneday]

For those "shorts" believing there is anything substantial behind the lawsuit.

"One expert, Jill Fisch, a business law professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, said Chamberlain's and Issac's lawsuits will only be successful if they can prove Musk and Tesla did not actually seek or "secure" funding for the transaction.

Even a "preliminary commitment" with an investor or bank would be enough to support the idea that Musk's statements were made in "good faith," Fisch said. So, even if Musk did post the tweet hoping to damage short sellers by boosting Tesla stock price, it wouldn't be illegal unless it were untrue, she said."

How do you prove that someone actually did not see to secure funding? Thats impossible.

Two lawsuits accuse Elon Musk of false statements to boost Tesla share price

The burden of proof is still on the plaintiff in a civil suit.

A defendant does not actually have to prove anything to avoid a jury finding for the plaintiff. If the plaintiff cannot convince the jury that the facts and allegations are more likely to be true than not, the defendant should prevail even if he presents no defense at all.

 

[oneday]

About the 8-K: Do we think we'll see this Monday (4 business days after the tweet)? Near (after?) the end of the trading day? If we do see one, is there any information in it that would be material? If we don't see one, would that be a meaningful liability?

You can check out some collective wisdom *maybe* here: 8-K coming on Monday?

 

[Intl Professor]

Ah, the "Not Hotdog" App from Silicon Valley... my favorite example of AI actually. Incidentally, what a bunch of nerds we are reading about finance on a Sat night.

Nerds? No-lifers!

 

[avoigt]

Nerds? No-lifers!

Nerds?

Given my investment volume in Tesla I better be very "nerdy" in that respect.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Knew I would be criticized. My net worth falls short to be an accredited investor. Still support Elon's mission and appreciate the help from this community. Hopefully there will be a pathway so that my 629 shares can make to the otherside(privatization).

Hi AZRI11,

This is not an advise, but just some things to consider among the many potential routes to your goals.

You might be able to cross the $1M net worth line by selling shares into a short squeeze. Create a Sell on Limit order for 628 shares @ $2,048 per share. If the trade executes, it nets you a million bucks after R.I. capital gains tax of 28.6% or adjust the following numbers to suit your situation:

Google maths

BTW, using the current share price ($355) or the offer price ($420) does not affect this math. Only the effective tax rate and number of shares sold does. Experiment with the google maths above to see that.

In this scenario, you would have the net worth to become an accredited investor before buying back into TSLA. The buy back could be done after the squeeze if the price comes down, or use the 1 share retained to keep your foot in the door, and to increase your TSLAP shares during one of the bi-annual buy/sell auctions.

Of course, you wouldn't put the WHOLE million back into TSLAP, because that wouldn't be prudent. But you could easily pick an allocation that satifies you investment goals, increasing your holdings and setting aside a nice sum of aftertax money for you and your family.

Of course, one other risk is that the 4.9x mulitple for the peak of the squeeze is exceeded, and you miss out on some upside. But then you are still a Tesla millionaire, and that's not too bad.

On the other hand, if the squeeze doesn't happen, the reason could well be because the "go private" motion doesn't get support from 2/3'rds of TSLA shareholders. In that case, you won't need to be accredited to continue as an investor in publicly traded TSLA.

Good luck, and let us know what happens!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Twitter bear skabooshka has tucked tail, and folded his tent. I'm guessing his pay cheque bounced.

Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis

4:49 PM - 11 Aug 2018

 

[Reciprocity]

About the 8-K: Do we think we'll see this Monday (4 business days after the tweet)? Near (after?) the end of the trading day? If we do see one, is there any information in it that would be material? If we don't see one, would that be a meaningful liability?

Logic dictates an 8k, but I don't think there will be one. I haven't really figured out why yet, but my impression is that Elon wants the stuck price suppressed at this point. To much charity and the stock spikes and could spike beyond the 420 is short covering kicks it. This could all blow up the deal if the mystery investor doesn't want to commit to the higher price.

I also don't believe that Tesla has the legal obligation. They have to respond to the SECs inquiries, but no 8K is required for a deal that is not done. You don't do an 8k when your thinking of doing something and planning. That doesn't mean that you don't, just that it's not mandatory. Most companies would want to clarify the statements to stableize the stock. In this case, I believe Elon wants a little chaos. More uncertainty, more shorts.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

^I also think uncertainty on the time frame creates a bit chaos

 

[BenPrice]

If Tesla does go private, and some chunk of investors have to pass on investing in the private Tesla for various reasons, where do you guys think those dollars will end up?

Wouldn’t other tech stocks seem reasonable? Perhaps Amazon, Apple, Google? Private Tesla will shift billions of dollars - anybody else have a guess at any other companies that have a high likelihood of benefiting from this?

To explain in a different way, if, say, Fidelity had to close its position with Tesla because of some legal or strategic reason, they’d have a giant pile of cash - where do you think it will go?

 

[KarenRei]

If Tesla does go private, and some chunk of investors have to pass on investing in the private Tesla for various reasons, where do you guys think those dollars will end up?

Wouldn’t other tech stocks seem reasonable? Perhaps Amazon, Apple, Google? Private Tesla will shift billions of dollars - anybody else have a guess at any other companies that have a high likelihood of benefiting from this?

To explain in a different way, if, say, Fidelity had to close its position with Tesla because of some legal or strategic reason, they’d have a giant pile of cash - where do you think it will go?

I don't know about "in general", but if I could no longer own TSLA, I'd try to "backdoor" my investment into them via suppliers, raw material providers, etc. The question is which publicly traded companies will be the most intimately tied to Tesla's fortunes going into the future. I'd need a mix, as Tesla has a habit of killing off its suppliers in favour of vertical integration :Þ

 

[WarpedOne]

Panasonic is the prime candidate.
It also has very good prospect of being bought out by Tesla in a few years.

 

[KarenRei]

Panasonic is the prime candidate.
It also has very good prospect of being bought out by Tesla in a few years.

Any clue what percentage of Panasonic's operations are Tesla-related?

if Panasonic doesn't get bought out by Tesla within a few years, I fully expect them to end up backstabbed by Tesla within a few years. Can't leave that much of its profit in someone else's hands...

 

[DriverOne]

a Retail investor or institution ... would have to sell at $420 - therefore it seems at this point to make zero sense to buy or hold shares over $420.

Let's say cash flow goes positive. Model 3 production excels. Shorts decide to cover, stop bleating the bad news FUD, more shorts fold, and so on. And so TSLA would normally float up to, say, $420+. Your internal valuation team values it at $450.

Now... someone comes along offering $420. Would you sell? Would you vote for that? Or would you vote no, buy a ton at $420+, and hold out for $450?

If your internal team says $500 in 12 months. Would you vote for $420 now? Probably not...

Would you threaten to vote no, but suggest that $450 might buy your vote?

One poll we could do here is what price buys your "yes" vote?

I think a more interesting poll would be - at what price would you sell to covering shorts, know you can't buy back and that you're losing your shareholder place in a private Tesla? Is $420 a "not selling for that!" price? $500 and you'll take the money? $840 now would be nice, you don't want to wait 10 years to see if Tesla succeeds? $infinite as the entire energy industry needs replacing?

 

[AlMc]

A simple way to get more backers is for Elon to put them on the semi, drive them from Fremont to GF. Show them the numbers are for reals. Deal should close upon reaching GF

Gives a new perspective/meaning (Literal) to the term IPO **Roadshow**