Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

You seem to have left out the alternative where Elon continues to work toward reaching the goals that he's dedicated his life to.

Not that this is relevant to your aptitude for maintaining a bias toward a negative outlook.

For those preferring more balance in the things that shape their attitude this consideration may be useful.

I'm not being negative, just being real. Good for Elon and good for the world, but bad for Tesla. People who suggest he will leave if this doesn't pass and take his toys with him, those are the negative ones. I still believe in his integrity and grit, unlike you people, but I also know market sentiment and how it would react, again, unlike you people.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I'm probably the biggest Elon fan here but FSD AND Optimus are a done deal. Optimus have an amazing team with probably 50 leaders better than most of us have ever worked with. Elon is irreplaceable but when you have a $375T market cap target you don't need to worry quite so much. I can live with $200T.

The team have Elon's algorithm and crucially believe in it. They will just make a few mistakes along the way. No more than 20% will leave in the unlikely event of Elon going. This 20% are replaceable.

Looks like you forgot a couple decimal points.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm not being negative, just being real. Good for Elon and good for the world, but bad for Tesla. People who suggests he will leave if this doesn't pass and take his toys with him, those are the negative ones.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think this possibility is?

I put it at 0.025 and that is being generous. Elon's tendency is to take on impossible tasks and succeed. Has this changed?

The only ones thinking this is a real possibility are those who think of what they would do in that situation. "They" are very likely more motivated by money and ego than is Elon. "They" probably don't expect to achieve success in significant goals for humanity that extend beyond the length of their own lives.

"They" are in no position to realistically assess the outcome which they prognosticate upon if they don't take into consideration what makes Elon different than them.

 

[dl003]

On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think this possibility is?

I put it at 0.025.

The only ones thinking this is a real possibility are those who think of what they would do in that situation. "They" are very likely more motivated by money and ego than is Elon. "They" probably don't expect to achieve success in significant goals for humanity that extend beyond the length of their own lives.

"They" are in no position to realistically assess the outcome which they prognosticate upon.

How likely is what? Elon leaving out of spite? 0%. Tesla crashing if he leaves? 100%.

 

[durkie]

- AI (based on FSD)
- a HUGE computing power
- already one of/the most sophisticated hand (for example 11 degrees of freedom, coming this year 22 DoF)
-a very short and fast training loop in factories inside the company, internal data collection
-experience in scaling and manufacturing
-easy financing of development

Edit/add:

-less conserns of industrial espionage compared to Chinese humanoid bot developers (would you let the Chinese bot into your factory?)

Do those seem like lasting advantages? Or Tesla advantages specifically? Most of the things you listed there are in line with what other companies are doing as well, especially around AI and data collection. And maybe this robot model from some other company only has 7 DOF in the hand instead of 11, but so what? Do the extra 4 degrees in the hand specifically capture way more of the market for repetitive human labor than 7 DOF? I honestly don't know, but I'd be surprised. We'll need some robots with the dexterity to knit a sweater, but we'll also need a bunch that just put boxes on a shelf.

To be clear, I'm sure that Optimus can be successful. It's just that the hype of it being the enabler of multi trillion+ market caps doesn't seem at all clear-cut to me. And that's in part because I see Optimus in such contrast to Tesla's other businesses, which seem to have way more deep advantages: car production has a multi-year head start on a lot of the cost and technical issues in EVs (software, charging network, castings, motors, battery chemistries, BMSs, heat management, etc), and FSD has its unique access to data and unique approach. It's hard for me to find parallels with Optimus.

 

[2daMoon]

How likely is what? Elon leaving out of spite? 0%. Tesla crashing if he leaves? 100%.

If the first is 0%, what is the purpose of spending time discussing the second?

 

[dl003]

If the first is 0%, what is the purpose of spending time discussing the second?

Because I see some people suggesting everything at Tesla will be fine if he leaves, so I responded. Why single me out? Cuz you don't like the outcome I suggest?

 

[SO16]

How likely is what? Elon leaving out of spite? 0%. Tesla crashing if he leaves? 100%.

If/when Tesla can get the recurring revenue from robotaxi and Optimus with perhaps paid tasks, then Tesla will be in an apple like position and a Tim Cook can take over to streamline before going stale in a decade. Before then, I agree. Would be horrible if Elon left.

 

[2daMoon]

Because I see some people suggesting everything at Tesla will be fine if he leaves, so I responded. Why single me out? Cuz you don't like the outcome I suggest?

You have offered an opinion on something that very likely has no chance of happening.

I don't think you are a troll. But, continuing to champion the logic of such an outcome, repeatedly, serves those who purposefully sow discord in the form of generating fear, uncertainty, and doubt among the investor community.

Perhaps, weighing the possibility of it becoming reality might be worth considering before going into detail on what-ifs that are so unlikely to happen.

I will tend to offer a counterpoint to any posting of consistent negativity based upon such a long-shot happening. So, you are not a target. Just the content is being addressed. Even if the logic you offer is valid, the reality is, by your own admission, that the scenario isn't worth taking time to consider, except for those purposefully trying to generate FUD.

Again, I don't think you are one of those people, and, I don't think you would want to assist them. I'm only trying to point out how remote the possibility is. Yet, you continue to defend a rather unlikely outcome as if it is something people need to consider.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Squeezeme!

 

[dl003]

You have offered an opinion on something that very likely has no chance of happening.

I don't think you are a troll. But, continuing to champion the logic of such an outcome, repeatedly, serves those who purposefully sow discord in the form of generating fear, uncertainty, and doubt among the investor community.

Perhaps, weighing the possibility of it becoming reality might be worth considering before going into detail on what-ifs that are so unlikely to happen.

I will tend to offer a counterpoint to any posting of consistent negativity based upon such a long-shot happening. So, you are not a target. Just the content is being addressed. Even if the logic you offer is valid, the reality is, by your own admission, that the scenario isn't worth taking time to consider, except for those purposefully trying to generate FUD.

Again, I don't think you are one of those people, and, I don't think you would want to assist them. I'm only trying to point out how remote the possibility is. Yet, you continue to defend a rather unlikely outcome as if it is something people need to consider.

The FUDsters are people who say "Elon will leave." 2 people talking about the same unlikely event, but one is welcome because they think the outcome will be rosy, while the one saying that it will be a disaster is frowned upon. That's not FUD fighting. That's burying your head in the sand.

 

[2daMoon]

Squeezeme!

GME is going down and is +2x the volume of TSLA today.

Maybe they wanted to continue the good work by selling for a profit and putting it someplace else where shorts can be juiced.

 

[Opus BC fan]

The FUDsters are people who say "Elon will leave." 2 people talking about the same unlikely event, but one is welcome because they think the outcome will be rosy, while the one saying that it will be a disaster is frowned upon. That's not FUD fighting. That's burying your head in the sand.

I get both of your points and perspectives. I see no winners or losers in this argument. Can we move on guys?

 

[SOULPEDL]

>90 RSI for a bit there this AM. Someone was very hungry today (shortz?)
Did Warren Buffett actually buy some TSLA? (Checks Insurance business...)

 

[GatorMeat]

On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think this possibility is?

I put it at 0.025 and that is being generous. Elon's tendency is to take on impossible tasks and succeed. Has this changed?

The only ones thinking this is a real possibility are those who think of what they would do in that situation. "They" are very likely more motivated by money and ego than is Elon. "They" probably don't expect to achieve success in significant goals for humanity that extend beyond the length of their own lives.

"They" are in no position to realistically assess the outcome which they prognosticate upon if they don't take into consideration what makes Elon different than them.

The narrative that Elon cares about the earth and humanity and doesn't care about money was shattered long ago. Only the uberbulls still carry the false narrative that Elon is a selfless billionaire fighting for the good of humanity. There is no bigger ego out there today.

 

[2daMoon]

The FUDsters are people who say "Elon will leave." 2 people talking about the same unlikely event, but one is welcome because they think the outcome will be rosy, while the one saying that it will be a disaster is frowned upon. That's not FUD fighting. That's burying your head in the sand.

I gave it my best shot to explain how we don't have to paint a dark picture to get the point across.

You have a preference for doing it that way sometimes, for whatever reason.

When anyone does this, egregiously, I'm quite likely to offer balance by presenting a perspective focused on the more likely outcome.

This seems to me as a more beneficial use of the forum than speculating upon unrealistic aspects, solely out of concern for the potential result of relative impossibilities.

Have you considered how someone proffering a marked tendency of offering negativity beyond any realistic possibility might also have their head in the sand?

Much of what you post is a useful counterpoint, even when it has a negative bent. This was less useful without some perspective to weight it against.

Apologies if it felt to you as though it were personal.

 

[indysurfer]

There're 2 explanations for this:

1. Suddenly a big portion of shareholders became assholes overnight
2. Their perception of Elon has changed due to his actions

Guess which one is more likely.

There is probably more than one Ross Gerber with the institutional shareholders.

 

[Musskiah]

Uh, what do you mean? Dojo?

Tesla is contracting for major data centers to be constructed - most recently with Dell.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My neighbors didn't know that their Model 3 could drive itself. They assumed was just another update. He says, "What's FSD?"
One data point x strong weight given it was my next door neighbor and first person I asked in fact.

I'm shocked, (unless they're were among that lagging group). Isn't the car telling them that they "suck at driving, so here try me out?" or "Human score 45, Tesla 90, play again?"

 

[jeewee3000]

There is probably more than one Ross Gerber with the institutional shareholders.

Elon sold huge numbers of shares on the open market in april 2022 and december 2022. The stock got hammered because of it. (see the chart)

Is it so strange that certain stockholders - even if they gained a lot from the runup earlier after the compensation plan - are of the opinion Elon should have done things differently?

Elon needs to look in the mirror on this. But he probably won't.