Waymo

[enemji]

Tesla will have an Optimus primed and ready to clean and detail every car after rides.

The real answer is that the RT will be bare bones. No floor carpet, no cushion seats. Just rubber flooring with gloss painted seats so that nothing sticks.

 

[EVNow]

That will work awesome for people like you and me. The rest of the world loves to chit chat and get a personal touch (?)

Obviously, its not a big deal for a lot of people. I personally don't care. I've enjoyed the conversation sometimes - but kept mum at others. I don't think it will be a driving factor in adoption, one way or another.

Which brings back part of the labor cost it was supposed to reduce, cutting away the profits.

Ofcourse it will reduce labor cost - just not make it zero. Its not expensive to get a few min wage workers clean the vehicles when they are charging.

That is one reason why I have never used Air BnB.

Cleaning charges at Air B&B kill their business. Sometimes it is more than the rental charges if you are staying for just a day or two. Air BNB makes sense if you are going in a larger group and stay for a week or so ...

Finally it will come down to the price & service - like in so many retail services. Currently it is simply cheaper to own a car and drive around (if you are in the suburbs). If RT gets cheap enough to get around without the need of owning a car, it has a big market. Especially, the younger folk who will not need to learn to drive or own a car, ever.

 

[enemji]

This is where individual RT companies can differentiate themselves from others. Better companies will have lots of places where the RTs will go to charge & get cleaned in every market.

and each of these companies will have to have huge investments for the AV assets as well as the software platform and then fight to survive and ensure that they are not the dry leaves that get shaken off the tree.

I am looking forward to it but am very curious as to who really is gojng to be the winner. Will it be a new startup that comes up with a brilliant offering or will it be another large corporation that such as Marriott or AirBnB that is already in such a business of managing public service assets.

 

[EVNow]

How about privacy and no awkward conversations plus no pressure to tip and NO tipping at all. So you get a known point to point price.

Tipping is something we should just get used to adding to get the full price when comparing.

Privacy .... I'm not sure. RTs will have cameras and presumably can record your actions (and words). You have no privacy when you are in a public space.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Is there any precedence for automation to have completely failed and people went back to manual labor ?

Flufferbot?

I've soured quite a bit on the Robotaxi business model. Even Uber/Lyft replacement, which seemed like a slam dunk, is going to be a long road. There are just so many weird things with pickup/dropoff, parking lots, multi-stop, etc. that cause problems long after you've figured out how to drive safely and non-obnoxiously. And only Waymo is close to the latter.

Then you've got low utilization off-peak, which is about 70% of the time. Proponents talk about delivery, but that creates a whole new set of issues.

Uber/Lyft replacement is roughly a million car market. Call it 200k cars/year. 2nd/3rd car replacement is the big win, but real world Robotaxi costs are nowhere near being viable for that.

 

[enemji]

Flufferbot?

I've soured quite a bit on the Robotaxi business model. Even Uber/Lyft replacement, which seemed like a slam dunk, is going to be a long road. There are just so many weird things with pickup/dropoff, parking lots, multi-stop, etc. that cause problems long after you've figured out how to drive safely and non-obnoxiously. And only Waymo is close to the latter.

Then you've got low utilization off-peak, which is about 70% of the time. Proponents talk about delivery, but that creates a whole new set of issues.

Uber/Lyft replacement is roughly a million car market. Call it 200k cars/year. 2nd/3rd car replacement is the big win, but real world Robotaxi costs are nowhere near being viable for that.

That in itself means they need to start with designated areas for pickup and dropoff, just like a bus stop

 

[EVNow]

Flufferbot?

I've soured quite a bit on the Robotaxi business model. Even Uber/Lyft replacement, which seemed like a slam dunk, is going to be a long road. There are just so many weird things with pickup/dropoff, parking lots, multi-stop, etc. that cause problems long after you've figured out how to drive safely and non-obnoxiously. And only Waymo is close to the latter.

Then you've got low utilization off-peak, which is about 70% of the time. Proponents talk about delivery, but that creates a whole new set of issues.

Uber/Lyft replacement is roughly a million car market. Call it 200k cars/year. 2nd/3rd car replacement is the big win, but real world Robotaxi costs are nowhere near being viable for that.

Fluffer Bot was a technical issue.

But the robot was simply not very good at performing this delicate task. Its botched efforts held up production, and eventually led to its removal from the Model 3 assembly line,​

​

There are obviously a lot of hurdles to overcome. But mostly technical (like how & where to pickup and drop off people). Low utilization is a current issue too ... thats why lot of Uber/Lyft drivers just go home and relax during off peak. I expect RTs to be charging / getting cleaned. Also I think there is a possibility that centrally managed fleets will be more optimal than individually optimized (Uber/Lyft drivers decide whether to pickup a ride or not) and can be strategically placed based on expected demand. May be they provide for the base demand and human drivers pick up the excess demand during peak times.