Norbert
TSLA will win
Well, that would correspond to an average of more than about 1777 deaths/day. The 7 day average is at 1156/day now, and increasing at a rate of about 300 in 15 days. So it would take more than that.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Well, that would correspond to an average of more than about 1777 deaths/day. The 7 day average is at 1156/day now, and increasing at a rate of about 300 in 15 days. So it would take more than that.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That must be the test kit ? You take the sample and mail it and after a week the result comes ?
I’m talking about $5 test that can be done at home and gets results in 15 minutes. Apparently available in other countries according to that Mina tweet thread.
What I want to do is to give those tests to the care taker who comes to our home and ask her to take tests at home before driving to our house.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I think we’ve got a chance. We’ll be at a 7-day average of 2300 deaths per day in about three weeks, so that’ll add up fast. Depends what cases do in the next two weeks. I’m assuming we’ll hit 250k without too much difficulty, before the end of November, which would mean about 4000 deaths per day by the end of the year.
Hard to predict, since it entirely depends on human behavior, and adjustments by leaders to slow the spread. But looks like Dr. Scott Altas is in charge, so I would bet the over here. I predicted 320k by the end of the year in September, which seems quite reasonable at the moment - requires an average of 1500 deaths per day from this point. Should not be a problem at all.
What an unnecessary cluster. Thanksgiving looks like it’s going to be lit. No little virus is going to make Americans abandon the feast. Just the cost of doing business. Plus plenty of information available out there (from the highest levels of gov’t no less) letting everyone know it is no big deal.
Dr. Atlas, the expert here, doesn’t think the hospitals are full enough yet - wants them to get above 80% capacity (he doesn’t seem to understand how this works). And he is encouraging violent rebellion (“rising up”) against restrictions, so as to keep this train rolling. So I’ve got my money on that. #FactsMatter
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Given that the US already has the best testing program in the world, according to the White House, and Dr. Atlas has proven to those that matter that testing is not useful (no need to test anyone, really!), I don’t think we’ll be getting any traction on fast antigen tests in mass quantities any time soon. Hope I am wrong.
Obviously, this would be the solution. We should be doing 50 million tests a day in this country with associated support and follow-up apparatus (with positive antigen backed by PCR which has zero false positives). But we’ve known that since April, so don’t hold your breath. Apparently the gov’t did commit to buying 50 million a month or something but that is nothing.
Just hunker down, don’t hurt yourself, and don’t get sick (avoid appendicitis, cancer, heart attack, stroke, etc.), and wait for this wave to pass - don’t hang out with family over the holidays either. We should be on the downward slope by January. Good times.
Just need to hang on a little bit longer for that vaccine. It’s gonna work great and then this sh**show will be over (ignore the people saying we’ll be wearing masks for years; they have no idea what good messaging is), so no sense taking any risks for the next few months. Sounds like in your situation you really need testing capability. But you can’t really test your way to safety in individual situations like this - mass testing really only works effectively at a population level. You need other layers. Good luck.
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Report: DeSantis Hires Sports Blogger, Uber Driver Who Promotes Covid-19 Misinformation As Data Analyst
DeSantis is Florida's governor.
DeSantis is Florida's governor.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah saw this a couple weeks ago (I occasionally peruse the list of coronafools on Twitter).
Kyle is the “budget model” of Ethical Skeptic. Seems about right for DeathSantis.
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection
"A new vaccine that protects against Covid-19 is nearly 95% effective, early data from US company Moderna shows.
...
Moderna says it is a "great day" and they plan to apply for approval to use the vaccine in the next few weeks.
However, this is still early data and key questions remain unanswered.
The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.
The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.
Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5% of people.
The data also shows there were 11 cases of severe Covid in the trial, but none happened in people who were immunised."
"A new vaccine that protects against Covid-19 is nearly 95% effective, early data from US company Moderna shows.
...
Moderna says it is a "great day" and they plan to apply for approval to use the vaccine in the next few weeks.
However, this is still early data and key questions remain unanswered.
The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.
The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.
Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5% of people.
The data also shows there were 11 cases of severe Covid in the trial, but none happened in people who were immunised."
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The deeper dive into Moderna is looking really good. 94+% and all severe cases were in placebo.
A billion doses.....didn't hear the date for that, but it was mentioned.
Edit: 30 days in a fridge and "a day" at room temp.
A billion doses.....didn't hear the date for that, but it was mentioned.
Edit: 30 days in a fridge and "a day" at room temp.
https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1328058397430833154
"Another way to think about these lags is that some of the people who are infected on Thanksgiving
will enter the hospital in the middle of December,
and the morgue around Christmas."
from here:
People infected with COVID-19 at Thanksgiving could enter 'the morgue around Christmas'
showing a (possible) connection between Canadian Thanksgiving and a ramp up in cases afterwards.
----------------------------
"Another way to think about these lags is that some of the people who are infected on Thanksgiving
will enter the hospital in the middle of December,
and the morgue around Christmas."
from here:
People infected with COVID-19 at Thanksgiving could enter 'the morgue around Christmas'
showing a (possible) connection between Canadian Thanksgiving and a ramp up in cases afterwards.
----------------------------
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Great (though unsurprising!) news. A few thoughts from Dr. Mina. I am sure more analysis will be forthcoming.
A few big outstanding questions:
1) Does the vaccine prevent severe Covid?
2) Does it prevent transmission?
3) How long does the protection last?
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1328352029190877185?s=21
Overall, wonderful news.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Don’t look now, but “Space Karen” is trending. 
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's all well and good, but people don't think it's strange having 4 tests on the same day produce different results from the same machine?
Elon is being a turd, but it's still weird.
Elon is being a turd, but it's still weird.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think it's weird that someone would expect 4 samples of mucus on a swab collected by a human would have similar viral content. Of course this could explain some of Tesla's build quality issues...
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No it is not weird at all. Makes perfect sense. It is mind-boggling to me that Elon thought this was strange.
Of course, Elon also buys Ethical Skeptic hook, line, and sinker, and thinks that is good data, so maybe not all that surprising.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Maybe, just seems surprising to me. Different days, different machines, fine. Elon of course does seems to be drawing a dotted line from strange to.........where exactly? Some grand global conspiracy? All these fake corpses must've cost a lot!
Maybe we shouldn't be calling these quick ones "tests", like maybe we shouldn't have been calling lane-assist "autopilot".
Philadelphia's New COVID-19 Restrictions Targets Indoor Gatherings, Gyms and Dining
Philadelphia has imposed new COVID restrictions including prohibiting all indoor gatherings, banning all indoor dining, closing all colleges and high schools but not primary schools. They have seen a jump from 400 a day to more than 1100 a day in a little over a week. The mayor claims they may run out of hospital beds by the end of the year at current rate of increase in hospitalized cases.
Philadelphia has imposed new COVID restrictions including prohibiting all indoor gatherings, banning all indoor dining, closing all colleges and high schools but not primary schools. They have seen a jump from 400 a day to more than 1100 a day in a little over a week. The mayor claims they may run out of hospital beds by the end of the year at current rate of increase in hospitalized cases.
I wish Elon would drop it and let others fight it out if needed but maybe he’s concerned about another full shutdown. And if that is happening partly because of the high reported cases (which do seem to be inaccurate), then I can see his concern. But I also realize that the hospitals are filling up and something does need to be done about that. I just would hope that the lockdowns do not expand beyond targeted shutdowns.
It is important that the tests and testing procedures be accurate since so much truly is riding on the results.
Well, the "absolutely riddled with" bit is not true, but that particular test does only have about 84% sensitivity. So out of four tests, you'd expect almost one to be a false negative. Having two false negatives, particularly when human error is factored in, is not remotely surprising; it's well within the margin of error for such a small sample size.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Huh? How are they inaccurate? Any data to back that up? Molecular test positivity is rising, as is the number of molecular tests conducted.
Yes, it is important, and fortunately they are. That's the point. Molecular tests do not have any false positives (except through contamination, but that's a true positive as well), as they are conducted today, with Ct endpoints of 37-40. If you have any doubts, just go check out the New Zealand dashboard info. A historical case, finding someone who has residual non-infectious RNA, is a true positive as well.
They won't, unless Elon keeps up his misinformation campaign. He'll be (in small part) to blame if we have to expand lockdowns further. It puzzles me that Elon is actively pushing the country towards broader shutdowns, as that is in opposition to his goals.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You think there are less than the 11M reported cases of covid19 in the US? I hope not, because the actual count is probably closer to 60-80M.
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