TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool

[MXLRplus]

Doctors don't roll dice to determine what to write on a death cert. Even without an autopsy, they use the surroundings and the current conditions to list the cause.

That said, later on, when things quiet down, somebody is going to look at the deaths from Feb 1, 2019 - June 1, 2019 and compare to to 2/1/20-6/1/20. That will give us a much better feel for the mortality rate of C19.

It seems people are getting less pessimistic now. In late Feb I was estimating 0.02% global fatalities. That will be 1.6 million victims. It looks like I might have been the pessimist.

 

[winfield100]

Doctors don't roll dice to determine what to write on a death cert. Even without an autopsy, they use the surroundings and the current conditions to list the cause.

That said, later on, when things quiet down, somebody is going to look at the deaths from Feb 1, 2019 - June 1, 2019 and compare to to 2/1/20-6/1/20. That will give us a much better feel for the mortality rate of C19.

It seems people are getting less pessimistic now. In late Feb I was estimating 0.02% global fatalities. That will be 1.6 million victims. It looks like I might have been the pessimist.

You might want to start with 1/1/20.
I had a high school classmate, age 70, die from pneumonia in late January so related or not?
Probably not

 

[SDRick]

Time is up, pencils down.

Thank you for responding. Time will tell but sentiment here hopefully will be deemed more negative than reality.

 

[Missile Toad]

Median is at:

0.05 to 0.07% of the population
If we are now at peak, and half the deaths are behind us, and half ahead, then it seems 50,000 dead or
0.017%
... the only category with no votes. This Covid-19 is a slippery devil.

OK, times up. Recess! Go out and play.

 

[SDRick]

Median is at:

0.05 to 0.07% of the population
If we are now at peak, and half the deaths are behind us, and half ahead, then it seems 50,000 dead or
0.017%
... the only category with no votes. This Covid-19 is a slippery devil.

OK, times up. Recess! Go out and play.

Who would've thought smart people or "experts" could ever be wrong?
To be fair, the poll is for the entire year 2020.


.

 

[eevee-fan]

We're at 50k deaths now. Current estimate to August is only 67k, seems we would exceed that as it looks like people like the GA governor and Las Vegas Mayor are thinking 'double or nothing'.

 

[EinSV]

A weekly survey of disease modelers this week asked them to estimate how many fatalities they expected in the U.S. this year from covid-19.

The expert consensus estimate came in at 150,000 (about halfway between 0.04% and 0.05%).

A prediction engine called Metaculus estimated 125,000, just below 0.04%.

"COVID19-Survey10-2020_04_22" by Thomas McAndrew
LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020? | Predicting Pandemics

 

[Atari2600]

A weekly survey of disease modelers this week asked them to estimate how many fatalities they expected in the U.S. this year from covid-19.

The expert consensus estimate came in at 150,000 (about halfway between 0.04% and 0.05%).

A prediction engine called Metaculus estimated 125,000, just below 0.04%.

"COVID19-Survey10-2020_04_22" by Thomas McAndrew
LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020? | Predicting Pandemics

I think there are too many variables. If the Georgia numbers shoot up will Kemp shut it back down or just "let it go"?

Also stories like this make me concerned about predictions. Many supposedly grassroots reopen sites are tied to one pro-gun lobbyist

 

[eevee-fan]

UW estimates 82K by Aug, so double or nothing... 160k = 0.05% of the population for 2020.

Apparently, the Pentagon estimated 150k deaths and briefed Trump in Dec 2019.

Someone posted a link to this other estimator. Claims to be more accurate than the UW IHME model.
This site claims 166,200 deaths by Aug 4. So that's 0.05%

COVID-19 Projections | United States

 

[thebestwp]

When this virus will stop? I want to go to school so much.

 

[SDRick]

When this virus will stop? I want to go to school so much.

Where do you live?

 

[MXLRplus]

When this virus will stop? I want to go to school so much.

In America we are paying full tuition and room & board for college even though it's on-line classes of very poor quality.

 

[eevee-fan]

Someone posted a link to this other estimator. Claims to be more accurate than the UW IHME model.
This site claims 166,200 deaths by Aug 4. So that's 0.05%

COVID-19 Projections | United States

Now the UW model adjusted to show almost 150k deaths with new direction to partially open the economy with some precautions...

 

[SSedan]

How many of you have taken efforts to be self sufficient so someone else making a fraction of what you do doesn't have to "risk their life" to produce and distribute your food and other necessities?

There are already reports of the excessively restrictive lockdowns causing rises in suicides, murders, people delaying treatment for strokes and heart attacks, delayed surgeries due to hospital restrictions leading to cardiac deaths.

Yes NYC needed a heavier handed approach to lockdowns but most of the country needs to get back to work. Here in WI we are locked down till later than NY. NY is 126 dead per 100k, WI is 6........

This is like the flu, going to be with us forever. Given the high asymptomatic rate and high R0 rate the global hit was a done deal the day China's sloppy lab let it jump to humans. Only real mitigation we can accomplish it not overwhelming the hospitals like Italy and bad as NYC was they were stressed but not overwhelmed. I think China lied about everything and made zero efforts to stop or slow global spread, but in hindsight while still wrong and evil by the Communist Party I don't think they could have stopped it.

If you want to argue wait for a vaccine, a vaccine is just artificially created herd immunity, so we can get there by having the lower risk people keep the country moving while the medical industry works on a vaccine.

Death rate is what it is and I don't think politicians are having any impact one way or another other than making sure hospitals never get over run.

Even the U.N. is saying the real death toll will be the famine caused by the economic destruction.

 

[dhanson865]

First peak in April but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2nd peak later this year before the end of year.

Still it looks like even if we had a similar fall/winter peak like our prior spring peak my vote in this thread was too high. We might make it over 0.1% but I voted higher than that even.

 

[dhanson865]

are the thresholds that move it down the poll at this point.

 

[jhm]

View attachment 593629

are the thresholds that move it down the poll at this point.

Thanks! I'm vote in April was for 0.04%. That was way too optimistic. Looks like would could end the year about twice that, around 0.8%. Cheers to the two respondents who voted for 0.07% to 0.10%.

 

[eevee-fan]

UW estimates 82K by Aug, so double or nothing... 160k = 0.05% of the population for 2020.

Apparently, the Pentagon estimated 150k deaths and briefed Trump in Dec 2019.

Dang, even my humorous double or nothing guess was exceeded. Never thought "we" could mess up so bad!

 

[dhanson865]

View attachment 593629

are the thresholds that move it down the poll at this point.

it's possible we go over 330,000 with the pace accelerating but not guaranteed. Currently in the 0.07% to 0.1% band which only 2 people voted for. Heading towards the 0.1% to 0.2% band that 11 people voted for.

 

[Pilar Beckner]

251,901 deaths already? I hope this will end sooner.