General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

It seems that they've planned for 50,000/year, which is actually pretty good.

I read the Hungarian factory making Etron Quattro motors has capacity for 100k motors that could be used to make 50k Etron Quattros per year.

Have you read something more specific that they have the battery cells and in fact plan to make 50k if there is market demand?

 

[Driver Dave]

Mercedes, BMW, Audi they make take little slices of the piece, but the larger slice will remain with Tesla

Why would you buy an electric car with no charging network?
Why would you buy an electric car with no software updates?
Why would you buy an electric car that looks like an old gas car?

Why would you buy an electric car from A DEALER???

Who wants to go back to that....

They may get some folks who haven't locked into Tesla yet.
Folks who don't realize how things have changed.
Like someone clinging to their Blackberry because "the keyboard is great!"

This August has shown Tesla's business to be very strong.
It's locking in customers like a tech company.
It will only continue, justifying the investment.
It will be profitable. Fueling calls for mega-growth.

Mercedes, BMW, Audi will launch weak, with weak products and weak sales and weak margins, not justifying the investment.

They will all limp along, competing against themselves for the scraps outside Tesla's growing ecosystem, with profit pressure limiting their ability to invest.

And god help them if Tesla just touches the gas on advertising.

Eventually they might merge their EV business into one German EV company in order to survive and compete against Tesla and China.

TSLA Long. It's obvious.

 

[avoigt]

Given the base price of the Model 3 versus ICE&EV competition it is just amazing that its now on rank #5.

Lets for a second imagine what will happen when the $ 35k Model is available....

Car August Sales Base Price Today
Toyota Camry 30,141 $23,495
Honda Civic 27,677 $18,940
Honda Accord 26,725 $23,570
Toyota Corolla 26,155 $18,600
Tesla Model 3 (est.) 17,000 $49,000
Hyundai Elantra 15,475 $16,950
Nissan Altima 14,925 $23,260
Nissan Sentra 13,314 $16,990
Ford Fusion 11,286 $22,215
Kia Optima 11,074 $16,800

 

[shootformoon]

Yesterday I had a dream that Amazon buys 10% of tsla to integrate its autonomous driving tech for same day/3 hour delivery. If they miss this opportunity, tsla will take over the last mile home delivery market in 5-10 years.

 

[bhtooefr]

Even if you use the all vehicles list from GoodCarBadCar (which also estimates higher sales than InsideEVs for the Model 3), it gets pretty brutal for the competition.

For that matter, even if you used ASP instead of base price, with the pickups in there (where their ASP really is a lot higher than their base price), it's still nasty for them.

 

[bhtooefr]

Random thought re: the FUD about Musk hiring lawyers "in preparation to defend against the SEC"... what if it's not a defense, what if he's the plaintiff, against organizations like UBS doing price manipulation?

 

[Ugliest1]

Yesterday was MB, today is Audi's turn

Anyone see this article audi-just-started-mass-producing-a-new-tesla-fight? in motley Fool
Audi Just Started Mass-Producing a New Tesla Fighter

Didn't see this discussed in threads ?(catching up daily mostly in evenings)

Someone else may have already pointed this out, but, what’s with the downgrade in FUD? It used to be Tesla Killer.... now it’s just Tesla Fighter? What’s next, OEMs finally take up Elon’s shared supercharging offer and we’ll see “another Tesla Buddy”?

 

[riverFox]

Tesla is sending out a lot of emails to get people set up for delivery today. The end of quarter push to profitability is on!

 

[Cohiba]

Tesla is sending out a lot of emails to get people set up for delivery today. The end of quarter push to profitability is on!

If I was living in the US, I would just take a plane to the factory, pick up the car and drive it home. Best road trip ever in a brand new car. Win-win situation!

 

[MP3Mike]

If I was living in the US, I would just take a plane to the factory, pick up the car and drive it home. Best road trip ever in a brand new car. Win-win situation!

Sounds good but only if you didn't have to pay the CA sales tax... (At least for us Oregonians.)

 

[ggies07]

Tesla is sending out a lot of emails to get people set up for delivery today. The end of quarter push to profitability is on!

 

[Driver Dave]

Given the base price of the Model 3 versus ICE&EV competition it is just amazing that its now on rank #5.

Lets for a second imagine what will happen when the $ 35k Model is available....

Car August Sales Base Price Today
Toyota Camry 30,141 $23,495
Honda Civic 27,677 $18,940
Honda Accord 26,725 $23,570
Toyota Corolla 26,155 $18,600
Tesla Model 3 (est.) 17,000 $49,000
Hyundai Elantra 15,475 $16,950
Nissan Altima 14,925 $23,260
Nissan Sentra 13,314 $16,990
Ford Fusion 11,286 $22,215
Kia Optima 11,074 $16,800

Tesla is selling Toyota quantities and BMW price points.

I believe the business term for this is "amaze-balls"

 

[Zaxxon]

Random thought re: the FUD about Musk hiring lawyers "in preparation to defend against the SEC"... what if it's not a defense, what if he's the plaintiff, against organizations like UBS doing price manipulation?

 

[hobbes]

Looks like floodgates opening for end-of-quarter push - lots of people reporting emails with delivery dates in late Sep:
Notice to schedule delivery of Model 3 (LR/AWD) : teslamotors

 

[geneclean55]

Looks like floodgates opening for end-of-quarter push - lots of people reporting emails with delivery dates in late Sep:
Notice to schedule delivery of Model 3 (LR/AWD) : teslamotors

Yep, the multiple delivery threads over on the model 3 forum here are absolutely hopping right now.

 

[Johan]

Looks like floodgates opening for end-of-quarter push - lots of people reporting emails with delivery dates in late Sep:
Notice to schedule delivery of Model 3 (LR/AWD) : teslamotors

... But... But... I had credible information from beachbums, firebirds and Mike 12345s that Tesla was having so much trouble producing and delivering all these cars, their dealer lots overflowing with cars full of defects... My my, all the stock I bought at $380 that I sold today at $280 for a huge loss (damn you Elon Musk, you incompetent, no-good pumpanddumpster), maybe I shouldn't have listened to these upstanding gentlemen or gentleladies after all?

 

[adiggs]

If I was living in the US, I would just take a plane to the factory, pick up the car and drive it home. Best road trip ever in a brand new car. Win-win situation!

It sounds good in theory. In practice, California tax rules are designed to make this prohibitive. Especially for people coming from a no-sales-tax-on-vehicles state like Oregon, where we end up paying the California sales tax, and get no credit for that on our tax bills in our home state. At least other sales tax states usually have a reciprocity agreement so you can deduct what you pay in CA sales tax from what you owe on your own state sales tax.

I've even made a suggestion to the California tax authority that they need a "Tesla Tourism" tax exemption, so that people can get a 30 day registration when picking up their new car at Tesla's factory, and not owe CA sales tax. Of course, the only people that can get that 30 day registration are people that can also show evidence that they'll be registering outside of the state - CA residents not eligible.

Heck - there was even a bill in the CA legislature to do this, and it didn't get traction and become law.


As an outsider (to CA), that looks like about as short-sighted as a legislature can get. "hey look - if we DON'T charge out of state residents sales tax, then they might come to Fremont to take delivery of their new cars to drive them home. And some of them will spend time touring around the state, visiting Disneyland and our great state and federal parks, and Hollywood, and the beach, and drive Highway 1 and get a picture of their car sitting in a tree (I have a picture of my Roadster going through a tree in NorCal ), and .. But nah - we wouldn't want all of that extra tourism business and those sales taxes. What would we do with that?"

 

[dmckinstry]

It sounds good in theory. In practice, California tax rules are designed to make this prohibitive. Especially for people coming from a no-sales-tax-on-vehicles state like Oregon, where we end up paying the California sales tax, and get no credit for that on our tax bills in our home state. At least other sales tax states usually have a reciprocity agreement so you can deduct what you pay in CA sales tax from what you owe on your own state sales tax.

Just a thought, and I don't know if it would work, but could you or Tesla file for the plate before pickup from the state where you live and mount the temporary in your rear window when you do pick up? If it's legal I would think Tesla would go for it since it saves them the delivery fee.

 

[adiggs]

Just a thought, and I don't know if it would work, but could you or Tesla file for the plate before pickup from the state where you live and mount the temporary in your rear window when you do pick up? If it's legal I would think Tesla would go for it since it saves them the delivery fee.

I haven't specifically pursued that idea as a way around the problem. I HAVE done enough reading about this problem over the years to be reasonably confident that it won't work. California is really good about making sure everybody pays their taxes. I figure if it were a way to get around the problem, then I'd have seen that in some of the previous reading I've done about this problem, and Tesla would at least mention it as a mechanism for people interested in the factory delivery + factory tour experience.

To get around the problem (and this affects way more than just Tesla), the solution looks like "ship the car out of state and deliver it there - that's how you avoid California sales tax". Dealerships face this problem also - if you buy a used car from a California dealer but live out of state, if you fly there to take delivery of your used car, the dealership will collect California Use Tax.

Crazy, I know. And Tesla is starting to deliver a lot of cars. You'd think the state would like families to come visit, and spend a few days or weeks driving around being tourists in their new car - at least some of which is guaranteed to happen in California. And ESPECIALLY families that think spending $50k, $100k, or even $150k on a car isn't supremely ridiculous.

With the right setup, I can readily imagine Tesla getting a cottage industry going for International customers flying over to California to take delivery, drive their car around for a few weeks touring the States, then give it back for shipping to their home country. I know the manufacturers in Germany that kind of program going, and I've never ready anything about good stuff about those trips (fly to Germany, pick up your new BMW, drive it on the Autobahn and around Europe, then fly home and have it delivered to your house at home). Yeah

 

[oneday]

I haven't specifically pursued that idea as a way around the problem. I HAVE done enough reading about this problem over the years to be reasonably confident that it won't work. California is really good about making sure everybody pays their taxes. I figure if it were a way to get around the problem, then I'd have seen that in some of the previous reading I've done about this problem, and Tesla would at least mention it as a mechanism for people interested in the factory delivery + factory tour experience.

To get around the problem (and this affects way more than just Tesla), the solution looks like "ship the car out of state and deliver it there - that's how you avoid California sales tax". Dealerships face this problem also - if you buy a used car from a California dealer but live out of state, if you fly there to take delivery of your used car, the dealership will collect California Use Tax.

Crazy, I know. And Tesla is starting to deliver a lot of cars. You'd think the state would like families to come visit, and spend a few days or weeks driving around being tourists in their new car - at least some of which is guaranteed to happen in California. And ESPECIALLY families that think spending $50k, $100k, or even $150k on a car isn't supremely ridiculous.

With the right setup, I can readily imagine Tesla getting a cottage industry going for International customers flying over to California to take delivery, drive their car around for a few weeks touring the States, then give it back for shipping to their home country. I know the manufacturers in Germany that kind of program going, and I've never ready anything about good stuff about those trips (fly to Germany, pick up your new BMW, drive it on the Autobahn and around Europe, then fly home and have it delivered to your house at home). Yeah

I should start a car transport business, and hire the buyers as my shipping staff to drive the cars to themselves?