Thanks! If I read your table right:
1. lease ratio increase in Q3 only impacts profit by 6~7million, an negligible factor.
2. one time expense(restricting etc) reduced ~80m and has a huge impact on earning.
3. You put zev income on par with Q2.
4. You modeled SGA the same as in Q2
5. other improvements come from gross margin improvement.
My questions:
1) zev can be a wild card, if they boost it to Q1 level of 200m, based on your calculation, tsla ill be nongaap positive.
2) how the 10% production increase translates to cost reduction is hard to model further complicated by M3 price mix change.
3) SGA saw 50m reduction from Q1 to Q2. Since Q3 EOQ push was not as crazy as Q2 and the distribution systems has been improved, Im wondering if we will see further decrease on SGA this quarter.
4) the early recognition of FSD in my opinion may only play a samll role on earnings. it may impact earning few millions.
Bottom line is loss will be narrowed if not earnings.
It's great data gathering and analysis. I think your ets. will come inline with actual no. But if you can list worse/nominal/best case scenarios separately, it would be super sweet!
1. lease ratio increase in Q3 only impacts profit by 6~7million, an negligible factor.
2. one time expense(restricting etc) reduced ~80m and has a huge impact on earning.
3. You put zev income on par with Q2.
4. You modeled SGA the same as in Q2
5. other improvements come from gross margin improvement.
My questions:
1) zev can be a wild card, if they boost it to Q1 level of 200m, based on your calculation, tsla ill be nongaap positive.
2) how the 10% production increase translates to cost reduction is hard to model further complicated by M3 price mix change.
3) SGA saw 50m reduction from Q1 to Q2. Since Q3 EOQ push was not as crazy as Q2 and the distribution systems has been improved, Im wondering if we will see further decrease on SGA this quarter.
4) the early recognition of FSD in my opinion may only play a samll role on earnings. it may impact earning few millions.
Bottom line is loss will be narrowed if not earnings.
It's great data gathering and analysis. I think your ets. will come inline with actual no. But if you can list worse/nominal/best case scenarios separately, it would be super sweet!
updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post.
a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages which reduce realized revenue this period. cash flow could be better due to inventory draw on model s/x.
[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 17,400 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,600 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,837 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.08 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.15 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2]1,375,470[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,484,642[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]126,400[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,197,605 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,210,813 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,127,885[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,927,099[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,164,753 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,231,534 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,279 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.9%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]17.9%[/TD2][TD2]17.3%[/TD2][TD2]15.6%[/TD2][TD2]23.2%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,880 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -198,497 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -218,497 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -238,497 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-238,497[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,634[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]
… … s deliveries x deliveries s+x deliveries 3 deliveries 3 production lease 3s % veh lease s/x % veh avg price s+x (calc'd) avg price model 3 (set) revenue auto sales ex 3 auto sales mod 3 auto leasing zev+nonzev credits 1 time revenue total auto energy storage solarcity grohmann services/other total revenue cost of revenue auto sales ex 3 auto sales mod 3 auto leasing 1 time cogs total auto energy storage solarcity grohmann services & other total cost of rev gross profit auto ex 3 ex credits gm auto gaap gm auto lease gm auto gaap ex 3 gm model 3 gm ex credits auto-credits incl 3 gm storage gm scty gm maxwell/grohmann services gm opex tesla r&d tesla sg&a 1 time costs solarcity r&d solarcity sg&a total opex op income interest inc interest exp scty interest other income exp 1time scty gain pretax income income tax net income non-cont int. net inc to common basic shares diluted shares diluted gaap eps gaap net income + stock based comp + one time scty non-gaap net income non-gaap diluted eps