This war is different from all other wars in one respect, and only one: This rime there is effectively real time social media coverage. Except for that this reflects traditional Russian military practice, albeit with 'advances' in destructive technology. Even using serfs as conscripted 'cannon fodder' is traditional practice.
I agree 100% on all of these points..
We can break war down into 3 areas:-
- Diplomatic
- Economic
- Military
It is very likely that if Russia knew how the war would progress, they would not have started it.
Wars don't make economic sense and this war is a PR disaster.
In addition to their excellent work in other areas the PR/propaganda work by the Ukrainians must be close to the best ever.
While the majority of the Russian public is currently strongly in favour of the war, they will slowly begin to have regrets, the longer it drags on.
A key point is their leadership did not build a strong enough case for the war beforehand, they have been building the case for years, but not a strong case.
We can see this in the censorship in Russia.
Both China and Russia now want a negotiated deal ASAP.
Both sides have given ground:-
- Russia on regime change - and perhaps a few other minor issues.
- Ukraine on join NATO, neutrality, Donbas and Lahansk
The major remaining sticking points seem to be :-
1. Russia wanting to limit the size of the Ukrainian army,- Ukraine should not give any ground here, Russia will need to concede eventually.
2. The Azov regiment with some (disputed) NAZI tendencies - Ukraine can give ground here - disbanding the official regiment, and perhaps other actions.
3. Crimea - Gas fields - Russia should know the chances of developing the gas fields without a fair negotiated settlement are close to zero, I've suggested some deal to split the gas royalties.
In summary war are always a bad idea, both sides have a lot to gain but negotiating a settlement and a lot to lose if they don't.
news.sky.com
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