Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

This next year into 2025 is definitely going to be challenging and if this will be “dead money” for the next year or so, why not take advantage of other quality companies and invest wisely during the next year.

True. But may be a bit late at this point to rotate out of TSLA down here and into the high-flyers (AI) since how much higher can they go? When TSLA was at $260 and NVDA $450 then sure. But hindsight is always 20:20.

My game plan is to try to stick it out in TSLA through the doldrums and generate income off scalping CCs as I’ve been doing, netting about $8-10k/week on avg which is good enough for my needs. I only get into trouble when I sell -P even conservative ones with all the precautions and TSLA dives down toward them. I find it safer to stick to selling safe CCs and closing in green ASAP and only selling -P on a confirmed uptrend.

 

[Jim Holder]

Near Friday close. P266.67 6/21/24 $36.92M
Any way to tell if sold or bought?

 

[Yoona]

Near Friday close. P266.67 6/21/24 $36.92M
Any way to tell if sold or bought?

View attachment 1028781

View attachment 1028782

+p bearish

 

[Jim Holder]

+p bearish
View attachment 1028783

Seems countered with a $36.41M bullish P position same strike (spread?), though there are others (26M 24M) bearish P too. Wowza.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769176759025504564

 

[Max Plaid]

Yeah, I'm wondering about getting rid of them at a slight profit. It puts almost $50k back in the account. For that money, I could sell $10,000 shares if the SP drops to 160, and buy them back if the SP recovers to 165....

Yeah, I have my 100x July +p150's, bought them for $7.1, closed Friday $12, that's some good profits, but with P&D + ER incoming, I feel we're almost guaranteed a big "'miss" (however that may be defined), so I'm going to hold onto them and at least see how P&D looks, if it's way below Q4 numbers then I think the stock will dump, pretty much guarantees a poor EPS and will reinforce the bearish narrative that the growth-story is over, at least for now

If P&D looks good, then that would be the time to flip from writing calls to writing puts, so then I'd use them as long legs for calendars

 

[BornToFly]

Yeah, I have my 100x July +p150's, bought them for $7.1, closed Friday $12, that's some good profits, but with P&D + ER incoming, I feel we're almost guaranteed a big "'miss" (however that may be defined), so I'm going to hold onto them and at least see how P&D looks, if it's way below Q4 numbers then I think the stock will dump, pretty much guarantees a poor EPS and will reinforce the bearish narrative that the growth-story is over, at least for now

If P&D looks good, then that would be the time to flip from writing calls to writing puts, so then I'd use them as long legs for calendars

Yeah, I would definitely hold them if mine were dated further out like yours.

 

[BornToFly]

Don't intend to bring FSD back into this thread. I just think we need to remember with our CCs that 2T in market cap could be added very fast. Here is a video on X of a complete, paid Uber drive on X using FSD 12.3 with no intervention (basically robotaxi). Apparently 12.4 is already in testing and another large improvement. Progress is very fast now with Neural nets.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769393255727153316

 

[Knightshade]

Don't intend to bring FSD back into this thread. I just think we need to remember with our CCs that 2T in market cap could be added very fast. Here is a video on X of a complete, paid Uber drive on X using FSD 12.3 with no intervention (basically robotaxi).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769393255727153316

NOT basically robotaxi because with an incomplete OEDR the human still has to be there.

Significantly improved L2 system though. Which might well bring additional revenue, but not with a T.

 

[Max Plaid]

Yeah, I would definitely hold them if mine were dated further out like yours.

What expiration do you have?

And we have +$1000 on MY in US, +€2000 in Europe coming, not sure it will move the needle, the last rise didn't

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768827657461076091

 

[BornToFly]

What expiration do you have?

And we have +$1000 on MY in US, +€2000 in Europe coming, not sure it will move the needle, the last rise didn't

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768827657461076091

The +165/-170 expire this week. The +150/-160 expire next week.

 

[tivoboy]

Seems countered with a $36.41M bullish P position same strike (spread?), though there are others (26M 24M) bearish P too. Wowza.

View attachment 1028788

collars like this are interesting, but usually means that someone is SOO concerned with lower prices that they are will to outlay to maintain price. For ppl who have pledged a lot of shares, and where there might be covenants if price goes below a certain target, this type of trade can maintain the covenant till price recovers. For ME at least, it doesn’t portend “bullish” ness as much as unpredictability.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What expiration do you have?

And we have +$1000 on MY in US, +€2000 in Europe coming, not sure it will move the needle, the last rise didn't

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768827657461076091

I don't consider this a 'real' price raise, but more part of a price policy. The date of April 1st suggests it's an incentive to get people to buy a car this quarter.

 

[BornToFly]

NOT basically robotaxi because with an incomplete OEDR the human still has to be there.

Significantly improved L2 system though. Which might well bring additional revenue, but not with a T.

Legally - L2.
But quickly becoming L4 in terms of capability.

Just pointing out that there is a legitimate reason why TSLA market cap would suddenly justify a 4X increase overnight. That day is coming. I am not doing low SP CCs on my shares 1-2 years out!

 

[EVMeister]

I don't consider this a 'real' price raise, but more part of a price policy. The date of April 1st suggests it's an incentive to get people to buy a car this quarter.

And why March 22nd for Europe?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

While I'm testing my new option strategy (lesson so far: it's hard to stay disciplined) I'm still looking at opportunities in the market. I've looked back at some of my earlier expectations based on TA patterns and noticed that most of them have panned out or are in the process of doing so.

These put spreads (+p180/-p150) which I bought on Jan 8th would have been great, if I had kept on to them it until expiration last Friday, which unfortunately I didn't:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

QTA levels + commentary NFA 1/12 1/19 (messy)

teslamotorsclub.com

This expectation from January 12th is close to coming true:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Just rolled in some 255CC to 230 for today. We'll see if I get burned by the Bear trap. I think China prices, etc., will limit the top today....

teslamotorsclub.com

This possible resemblance which I spotted on January 14th is getting more uncanny by the day, now that we fell out of the channel on Thursday. If the mimicking continues we have at least 20-30 more points to go:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

So now that we’re at $218 it’s apparent in hindsight I should have respected the original $228 SL level. Oh well. I already missed cutting my longs on the drop from $265-$228, what’s another $10 😆. TSLA closing the week below $223 isn’t helpful, allowing for low $180's area to come in 3-5...

teslamotorsclub.com

This one from Feb 1st came true:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

wow, since Monday we are back to around 185/186 areas. flat like a pancake.

teslamotorsclub.com

Which makes me wonder if this prediction from last week, which sees us heading to 115, will also become a reality:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

I am at the same point in my life; in capital preservation and trying to produce enough growth to be somewhat above my income needs. Tesla at $630 would have a $2T and I don't think that impossible if the other businesses and FSD start to work out but it will take time. I bought a few 2026...

teslamotorsclub.com

Although I had a few successes with long puts after those first TA predictions, I did not act decisively enough. This time I will. On Friday I bought 10 p160 for next week and on Monday I will buy 50 put spreads +p125/-p115 for April 26th, a week after earnings. I will look for other opportunities too.

 

[EVNow]

Don't intend to bring FSD back into this thread. I just think we need to remember with our CCs that 2T in market cap could be added very fast. Here is a video on X of a complete, paid Uber drive on X using FSD 12.3 with no intervention (basically robotaxi). Apparently 12.4 is already in testing and another large improvement. Progress is very fast now with Neural nets.

I regularly drive with no interventions on 11. So, if anything 12 has not degraded much

One thing we should all keep in mind is - FSD and robotaxi are not what it does. It is about what it doesn't i.e. see what mistakes FSD does in one month or one year (or ten years). For FSD to be robotaxi level, it needs to make no more than one mistake in 10 years of driving.

ps : But here is the important part - at any point the market might decide Tesla has "solved FSD" for no particular reason. So, we may have a Hertz or NACS moment that adds 30% or more to the SP.

 

[adiggs]

What expiration do you have?

And we have +$1000 on MY in US, +€2000 in Europe coming, not sure it will move the needle, the last rise didn't

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768827657461076091

I got emails from Tesla to configure and order my Foundation series Cybertruck (waiting for the non-Foundation, and then probably another year of manufacturing for early build kinks to get worked out) AS WELL AS a take delivery from inventory by March 31 and we get to port our free supercharging for life plus FSD to the new vehicle.

That second offer actually warranted 5 minutes of conversation, but at 102k miles on our Model X we're content with what we've got. Still the most awesome car that we've owned, and we have an original Tesla Roadster parked in the garage next to it (previously the most awesome car that we've owned; now relegated to #2). The competition is fierce for the title.

My wife probably swaps that order around


I personally don't view these quarter end offers in a hugely negative light. But I do see these as tangible instances in which Tesla is increasingly needing to behaving, and behaving like, traditional car makers. It's a minor piece (adopting behaviors of other auto makers) of a larger thesis I'm still formulating around the idea that Tesla is getting revalued by the market as a whole. If I'm right, that new valuation will be a lot lower than it is today.

My long term / 2030 and beyond hasn't changed, though I should also be evaluating that.

 

[Knightshade]

Legally - L2.
But quickly becoming L4 in terms of capability.

It's really not though.

"needs intervention less often" is great- but it's not adding an entirely new capability to the system (able to drive without the human to act as the complete OEDR, or able to fail safely without a human-- neither of which exist in FSD at all and both of which need to fully exist for robotaxis)

Further discussion (and it's already been done, exhaustively) belongs here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Jim Holder]